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Whilst there is substantive legislation in place in Ireland, that ensure Providence's and Lansdowne’s legal entitlement to the lease undertaking, although I am sure that is still considered the measure of last resort, although the RKH arbitration will provide helpful legal precedent and it will also provide others the opportunity to focus the attention on the stagnation of existing O&G licences that Minister Ryan has created and that should also prove helpful to Barryroe, that said, in some respects that is probably a side show compared to the energy crisis and the very evident cracks within government in regards to Ireland's energy security, but nonetheless the Irish Times are right to point out the helpful legal precedent,…GL S
Frustrated Irish exploration investors could tap €190m Italian precedent
Coalition dragging its heels with firms so shareholders may opt for legal route that delivered in Italy
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2022/08/25/frustrated-irish-exploration-investors-could-tap-190m-italian-precedent/
There is substantive legislation in place in Ireland, that ensure Providence's legal entitlement to the lease undertaking, although I am sure that is still considered the measure of last resort, although the RKH arbitration will provide helpful legal precedent and it will also provide others the opportunity to focus the attention on the stagnation of existing O&G licences that Minister Ryan has created and that should also prove helpful to Barryroe, that said, in some respects that is probably a side show compared to the energy crisis and the very evident cracks within government in regards to Ireland's energy security,...GL S
Btw - Ryan did confirm today, that the CEPA energy security report will be released internally within government in the next week or so for review and then subsequently it will be circulated externally for review, September is shaping up to be a busy month!
Ignore the 15.00 onwards, it’s worth listening to the whole debate,..GL S
Don Moore, ex ESB on Irish media this morning saying political decisions have been made on basis of misinformation in recent years. No-one admitted that for every kilowatt of wind energy generation there needs to be a kilowatt of conventional energy back-up. Hydrogen as a useable energy does not exist. It is a 2030 to 2040 timescale energy. He called on Minister Ryan to 'stop being coy' about renewing existing exploration licences, and to confirm now whether or not he is renewing them. You cannot say plainer than that. A credible rational informed voice.
https://www.rte.ie/radio/radio1/clips/22136281/
And worth a listen, from approx 15.00 onwards, …GL S
Thanks to FRQ on the PVR discussion board.
Don Moore, ex ESB on Irish media this morning saying political decisions have been made on basis of misinformation in recent years. No-one admitted that for every kilowatt of wind energy generation there needs to be a kilowatt of conventional energy back-up. Hydrogen as a useable energy does not exist. It is a 2030 to 2040 timescale energy. He called on Minister Ryan to 'stop being coy' about renewing existing exploration licences, and to confirm now whether or not he is renewing them. You cannot say plainer than that. A credible rational informed voice.
https://www.rte.ie/radio/radio1/clips/22136281/
Phoenix Article - 4
?Alan Curran, who is coming on board as an interim CEO, has a lot of relevant experience over his 40-year career, going back to working as a petroleum engineer in the 1980s. He doesn’t, how ever, have experience of the Celtic Sea and is clearly coming in solely to manage the other consultants, NRG, which in turn retains RPS. The immediate problem Providence is facing is that having done its ‘K site’ survey last autumn – a precursor to deter mining a drilling location – the company is now waiting for what is known as a lease undertaking on Barryroe, which is to be issued by energy minister Eamon Ryan. Given his Green credentials, Ryan has so far managed to avoid issuing the licence to enable Prov idence to move forward, despite the fact that the Government is committed to ensuring that all existing licences can continue to be processed in the ordinary way.
?On May 19 in Shannon, however, Ryan said: “Oil and gas exploration has no place in Ireland’s energy future.” Given the current global energy crisis and Ireland’s reli ance on imports for 70% of its gas and 100% of its oil, this statement could come back to haunt the minister. It would appear that for the next decade Ireland is going to need an awful lot of oil and gas and the the development of Bar ryroe may be seen as crucial. Even out to 2050, the UN in tergovernmental panel on climate change advises that the world will still need 40% of current oil production and 55% of its current gas production.
?Europe as a whole currently depends on Russian gas for 40% of its requirements. If Vladimir Putin doesn’t cut this off com pletely, the EU itself is committed to reducing Russian fuel imports by two-thirds by the end of this year. This will leave Ireland mostly dependent on the British supplies over the winter, when it could become seriously expensive. ?It could be that Larry Goodman understands the importance of Barryroe and believes that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will force Ryan to push ahead with the granting of the lease undertak ing to Providence. He may also know that the company will need $65m to drill the two wells that will allow the central Barryroe area to deliver and he would be well placed to come up with the readies.
?In the meantime, Menton has had the idea of changing Providence’s name to Barryroe Offshore Energy. It is unclear what the point is, but the more pressing reality is that the shares are currently trading at just over 4c, at which Providence is capital ised at just €45m. ?If Barryroe does get developed, the shares, as Goodman understands, will be worth well over 10 times the current price!
Phoenix Article - 3
Consultants RPS Energy had previously carried out an assessment of the Barryroe field in 2013, when it came up with gross reserves of one billion barrels of oil and a 35% recovery factor. In other words, this looked like a 350 million barrel project. In its latest report, however, it was (quite sensibly) asked to focus only on the central segments of the field, close to where the 2012 oil discovery well was drilled. Based on this central segment only, RPS came up with 81 million barrels of (gross 2C) oil resources, which could be developed with a two-well programme. RPS confirmed a net present value for this segment alone of $401m (€392m), which is based on a $70 Brent oil price. At the current $100 Brent oil price, this would throw off a net present value of over $1bn.
?LICENCE ISSUE
?To keep the Providence show on the road, the chairman oversaw the raising of €1.8m two months ago at a miserable 1.5p a share – in the process causing yet more shareholder dilution damage. Menton, who had filled in as executive chairman, didn’t get around to appointing a new CEO until last month – a full nine months after Linn’s exit.
Phoenix Article - 2
Instead, Plunkett chose Alan Linn, who had originally worked with big names such as Exxon and Cairn Energy. He was neither a geologist nor a geophysicist, but rather a chemical engineer. Linn then chose as a farm-in partner a small operation called Spot-On Energy, which claimed to have lots of connections to the Norwegian energy industry.
?Not too surprisingly, perhaps, this £2 company failed to deliver the goods and in July 2021 Plunkett fell on his sword and was followed out the door by Linn in October. Happily, for his seven-month stint, Plunkett still got €106,000, while Linn trousered an impressive €475,000 for his 10 months. Jimmy Menton joined the board in May last year, before taking over as chairman in July 2021. While known as a highly competent senior suit when at KPMG, he can’t have too much of an insight into offshore drilling operations. His other director ships include St Vincent’s Healthcare Group, Lisney auctioneers and CWSI Security.
?While Boldy continues to look like the prefect CEO candidate, having been through all the surveys of Barryroe and is probably more familiar with the discovery than anyone else, he was not the name unveiled last month as the new interim boss at Provi dence. Instead of bring ing in Boldy, Menton initially retained the small British oil and gas consultancy NRG Well Management International – set up by Andrew McKay to specialise in well examination. No doubt it is a competent operator but does not have specific knowledge of the south Celtic Sea basin. ?It looks as if Menton paid NRG €200,000 for the work it did in the last four months of 2021, a rather chunkier rate than the mere €60,000 pa Boldy is currently paid at Lansdowne. For example, NRG carried out a static and dynamic modelling study of the key Basal Wealden A sands in Barryroe to assess the reservoir performance and likely recovery factor, and also examined the development options. This is all work that Boldy could have delivered in a few weeks.
Thanks to Jodonne on Providence board
Phoenix Article - 1
?Has Goodman got his timing right in Providence???
THE MUSICAL chairs continue at Providence Resources, with the latest face popping up being beef baron Larry Good man, who now holds a 16.1% stake. His most recent buy-in was the 8.2% stake held by big UK investment group M&G, which clearly got tired of the procession of drilling and funding failures. It sold out the whole of its 80 million shares at 2c each, thus crystallising a 90% loss. What is clear is that the arrival of Goodman suggests that the wheels could finally be starting to turn at Providence and a huge jump in the price would immediately follow.??What is also clear is that while Goodman knows more about beef processing than most people on the planet, he knows very little about offshore oil and gas exploration. Then again, neither did Nick Furlong, who bought into Providence over a decade ago, relying on then chairman Pat Plunkett to provide guidance. Before the most recent development, the company managed to pour hundreds of millions of euro down the wells before hitting what looked like the real thing in the winter of 2011/12. The first drill that was put into the Barryroe field flowed at 4,000 barrels of oil a day equivalent.??On the back of this success, the then directors (Tony O’Reilly Jnr et al) raised €70m in April 2012 at €3.95 a share – over 10 times the current share price – but instead of focusing on the big 300 million barrel discovery only 50km offshore Cork in only 100m of water, they went to the Dunquin prospect in the 5,000m-deep South Porcupine, over 320km offshore Cork. ??
FUNDING
?Here the boys managed to get Exxon to farm in and €200m was splashed out to find nothing but water. In a second attempt, another consortium was put together to waste €100m drilling another non-commercial well. Pat Plunkett then oversaw O’Reilly Jnr signing up to a €200m farm-out with Chinese intermediary Apec, which committed to fully fund a five-well drilling programme for a 50% stake, but this all came to nothing. When Plunkett subsequently moved at the start of 2019 to install new management,, he didn’t opt for a geologist with both in dustry experience and – ideally – knowledge of the Celtic Sea, such as Steve Boldy, CEO of Providence’s 20% partner in Barryroe, Lansdowne Oil and Gas. Boldy has a doctorate in geol ogy and spent 19 years working for the big US Amerada Hess group as its UK and international exploration manager and was vice-president for Ramco in Ireland, the company that developed the Seven Heads gas field that lies right at the top of Barryroe.
TS, as the Irish government are bordering on wilful neglect of Ireland’s energy security, there does appear to be a shift developing in recent days and whilst fracking remains the evil thing, the recognition of indigenous O&G and especially gas is very much in focus, …GL S
Mr Martin also said that Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) "simply has to be considered" in light of the energy security crisis brought about by the war in Ukraine.
He did not specially refer to the proposed Shannon LNG project, which is strongly opposed by his coalition partners in the Green Party. However, he said LNG is an option that has to be considered.
"The Programme for Government allows for LNG but without fracking. In that context, I think we will have to give consideration to LNG, given the energy security issue that has arisen from the war," Mr Martin told reporters.
"All of Europe is looking at LNG, but the type of energy we look at and the mode of delivery may differ. So I am not going to get in to any specific project, other than to say that LNG that uses fuel that is not derived from fracking is consistent with the Programme for Government," he added.
Mr Martin said the energy crisis brought on by the war has "changed dramatically, in the short term, the energy security question".
"What is going on across Europe and the world is a greater increase in LNG facilities and it is one option along with a number of options that simply have to be considered in light of the energy security situation."
TS, I have undertaken 2 FOI’s in the last 18 months, the first covering the period from January 2021 to October 2021, relating to all comm’s between DECC/GSRO and Exola and Providence and the 2nd covering the period October 2021 to May 2022, which was the same criteria as the first, with the addition of all comm’s that included Eamon Ryan, there was some documentation that wasn’t released from the FOI due to commercial sensitivity, (I believe these were the letters of comfort) but each FOI included a fully documented itinerary of all communication, which was helpful to put into context some of the information released by the company via RNS,
I think the most notable point was the change of tone and engagement with the GSRO and the company, which occurred in March and April of this year, they moved from basically blanking the company from any meaningful engagement in 2021, to a much more constructive and BAU engagement, perhaps it was this backdrop that led JM to make the “hopefully in 90 days” comment?, it’s just a gut feel based on the comm’s itinerary, but I sense the GSRO have completed their review and have approved the LU and it is sat with Ryan awaiting his ministerial sign off, …GL S
bbr, agreed and whilst it is evidently sat on Ryan’s desk, as is SEL 1/11 it confirms that the GSRO are doing their bit and progressing the licensing, which was also confirmed in a recent FOI that I undertook with the DECC,…GL S
Good to see CRU speaking up and some significant points of reference that will certainly make major industries sit up and take notice and more pressure will be sure to follow for Ryan and the government,..GL S
The raw risk from inadequate resources was scored at 25 out of 25, according to the register that was released under FOI.
Concerns were also raised about the system for ensuring that demand for electricity was always met over the next three years.
The commission for regulating electricity warned the risk to security of supply of power in Ireland was "acute" amid fears of significant outages and collateral damage to Government policy on climate change.
The latest risk register for the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU) scored challenges to supply at five out of five for impact, and four out of five for the likelihood of them happening.
This created a risk calculated at 20 out of 25 that electricity supply needs would not be met between now and 2025.
It warned of the potential for "loss of load expectation, expectation higher than target and/or significant events occurring during the period such as significant outages".
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0724/1311943-electricity-power-supply/
EU press conference at 12.15pm (CET) ref "Save Gas for a Safe Winter", this should be enlightening listening,...GL S
https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/ebs/live/1
Some headlines,..
15% reduction confirmation (Voluntary) and applicable to all EU members
Reduction period - August 1st through to March 31st 2023
Target saving 45bcm
EU state plans for Gas sharing and EU gas supply measures to be accelerated - Ryan could be the toast of the EU if he progresses Barryroe!
Priority on extending non Russian gas supplies - Another that Barryroe could support!
Plus EU alert process to be introduced, that will result in EU wide mandatory demand cuts being implemented.
Current EU storage is circa 65% - Target of 85% by end of November in doubt.
Concerns also extended to Winter 2023 and 2024
Full press release - I am sure the Barryroe partners will be waving this in front of Ryan's nose!
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_4608
EU press conference at 12.15pm (CET) ref "Save Gas for a Safe Winter", this should be enlightening listening,...GL S
https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/ebs/live/1
Some headlines,..
15% reduction confirmation (Voluntary) and applicable to all EU members
Reduction period - August 1st through to March 31st 2023
Target saving 45bcm
EU state plans for Gas sharing and EU gas supply measures to be accelerated - Ryan could be the toast of the EU if he progresses Barryroe!
Priority on extending non Russian gas supplies - Another that Barryroe could support!
Plus EU alert process to be introduced, that will result in EU wide mandatory demand cuts being implemented.
Current EU storage is circa 65% - Target of 85% by end of November in doubt.
Concerns also extended to Winter 2023 and 2024
Full press release - I am sure the Barryroe partners will be waving this in front of Ryan's nose!
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_4608
RL, the gap with PVR is getting wider, 5c is the current level for PVR in Dublin this morning (+11%) and it is also edging higher on Aim, it’s worth noting the AGM for PVR is next week on the 27th, so I wonder if we are building up towards some meaningful news?, as the 90 day time line that JM mentioned is also fast approaching, it’s certainly interesting times and how much longer will LOGP remain of the radar?,…GL S
Well, if Providence find themselves have to progress litigation at any stage in the future, that will certainly be very helpful circumstantial evidence!, …GL S
Contingency plans are starting to come together and it would not be a huge surprise that indigenous O&G resources that can be accelerated through to production effectively are being discussed, so whilst Ryan will have one view, the social and economic viability of the country will be firmly on the agenda of others, as each day passes and this crisis worsens, the stronger the political will to support Barryroe will become, plus the FG party will also be mindful that their turn at the head of the table is coinciding with what could potentially be the worst of the crisis and they will recognise decisions need to be taken,
I personally don’t believe it was a coincidence that one day Varadkar was suggesting funding support was holding up Barryroe and the next days a funding was completed in short order and a few days on, LG and Vevan stepped up to 16% of the equity, I would suggest it is more a question of when, rather than if now,..GL S
“Government sources said the worst-case-scenario planning is unlikely to come to pass, but there is growing anxiety about the winter ahead.”
There are also contingency plans in place for gas rationing. If Ireland was to be affected by serious gas shortages, similar rationing plans have been drawn up that would be divided between direct gas users and electricity users, as the power sector is a primary consumer of gas. Hospitals, schools and home heating would be prioritised.
The plans are being drawn up as part of work by the Government’s new Energy Security Emergency Group which is planning for potential oil or gas shortages in Ireland and examining modelling scenarios. The body has various subgroups looking specifically at gas security, oil security and communications strategies among other topics. The subgroups meet either every week or every fortnight and are made up of senior Government officials and industry figures.
Industry sources have privately expressed concern about the winter period ahead, warning that any sudden threat of a cut-off of Russian energy could result in panic buying among customers, which would create a supply shock. The National Oil Reserves Agency currently holds about 85 days of oil stocks.
Government sources said the worst-case-scenario planning is unlikely to come to pass, but there is growing anxiety about the winter ahead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/07/14/more-than-40-groups-of-essential-workers-to-be-prioritised-in-emergency-fuel-rationing-plan/
Another twist in the gas crisis and it wouldn’t be huge surprise to see the gas taking on increased importance at Barryroe,…GL S
Gazprom cannot guarantee good functioning of Nord Stream pipeline: statement
Russian energy giant Gazprom said Wednesday it could not guarantee the good functioning of Nord Stream, saying it did not know if a “critical” turbine engine would be returned from repair in Canada.
“Gazprom does not have a single document to allow (German company) Siemens to take out of Canada the gas turbine engine currently being repaired there,” Gazprom said in a statement.
“In these circumstances, it is not possible to draw an objective conclusion about the development of the situation and ensuring the safe operation of the Portovaya station — a critical facility for the Nord Stream gas pipeline.”
https://insiderpaper.com/gazprom-cannot-guarantee-good-functioning-of-nord-stream-pipeline-statement/
Another twist in the gas crisis and it wouldn’t be huge surprise to see the gas taking on increased importance at Barryroe,…GL S
Gazprom cannot guarantee good functioning of Nord Stream pipeline: statement
Russian energy giant Gazprom said Wednesday it could not guarantee the good functioning of Nord Stream, saying it did not know if a “critical” turbine engine would be returned from repair in Canada.
“Gazprom does not have a single document to allow (German company) Siemens to take out of Canada the gas turbine engine currently being repaired there,” Gazprom said in a statement.
“In these circumstances, it is not possible to draw an objective conclusion about the development of the situation and ensuring the safe operation of the Portovaya station — a critical facility for the Nord Stream gas pipeline.”
https://insiderpaper.com/gazprom-cannot-guarantee-good-functioning-of-nord-stream-pipeline-statement/
TS, not an ideal solution by any means, but at least the German Greens have recognised how precarious their situation is, unfortunately Ryan is still living in la la land and hopefully that is about to change imminently and Ireland can start to take their energy security seriously,…GL S