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Defo buys , going by the time and the trade prices around it, been a lot of selling of late good to see someone is hovering them up, was half expecting to see another Warrant exercised RNS given the selling volumes of late and the continual 5M sells being dropped in , still might I guess get one this week, who knows?
Need some news on a drill hopefully the sooner the better as we drift along below 0.2p .
GLA
Did not direct my post to you just gave my opinion from the years I have been invested here.
What would you suggest to improve the situation, keen to hear your ideas
Arkoma has turned into a Dog's Dinner for a couple of years now. Abysmal figures , the whole thing soured I reckon when we shifted from Arkoma to the Stanley's with Baja, made clear then to the Operator we would not buy any more percentage share. Fell into dispute with another partner Blackstone as they were not paying us half of the costs of the ESP's we paid for and the Operator to install.
We have a soured business relationship with the Operator and the partner and getting little to zero return from it, imho if we could get half the million or so we outlayed I would be more than happy to put that money into Galaxie or Falcon-2 or whatever and forget this sorry saga.
Incidently the move away from Arkoma has proven to be one of the smartest decisions the BOD has made.
Falcon-1 back and the numbers are impressive so far , the RISE today is not really reflecting that yet, we have been here in this range for the last 3-4 months, whilst oil prices are approaching double what they were then , and Gas hops up and down round the $3 mark.
We should at least be double what we currently are but have been held back by warrant executions and other short term sellers that just don't have the patience to hold on longer than in some cases a day to perhaps a month tops.
Just need to see if any other warrant RNS spring up , in the mean time a steady percentage rise would be good to see , to reflect just the increases in commodity prices that we sell our oil and gas at in the last few months.
Still saying 4 drills this year, no timing or order on the RNS now, just need to see what the next RNS brings and hopefully details of Stanley-5 (now Stanley-1 recompletion out the way), or any other plans for that matter.
GLA
only down for 5 Days Downtime! (15-20 Feb!), Right c'mon MM's you were quick enough to slam the share price downwards, how about the same quick shift this time up the WAY!!!!
GLA
Have we finally cleared the last of the warrants and the short-term sellers, Share price moving up nicely today, hopefully Falcon-1 coming back on line over the weekend, looking at the weather reports etc I must be honest and did not realise how bad it is actually was out there, Perhaps just as well the Baja guys took the action they did , lets keep fingers crossed there has been no damage and we can get going again from Monday, need to await RNS to confirm.
GLA
You Sir did not answer my question:->
Hold on first for clarification are you claiming to be John Barr, Really? I find your id might mislead a lot of posters here.
so Sir with your id and not denying you are John Barr is that not the biggest conspiracy of all,
Pretending to be the Chairman of the Mosman Board.
Lol
Hold on first for clarification are you claiming to be John Barr, Really? I find your id might mislead a lot of posters here.
Why do we get Production updates in any other sites in 3-6 month timeframes, any ups and downs in between these sites does not singled out especially so short term [potentially 4 days downtime] like Falcon-1.
It is certainly not amusing to me or others on this bulletin board, that are frustrated with what the board says it is going to do and then not deliver it, with the type of comms yesterday, if that can improved that would definitely be a good thing.
imho
GLA
Hi
with respect to Warrants I posted on 5/2/2021 the following in an answer to new poster BP11
'FYI
Mosman advertises current Warrants on its website as below:->
https://www.mosmanoilandgas.com/company-structure
Warrants
200,000,000 GBP 0.0023 (February 2021)
311,250,000 GBP 0.0015 (July 2021)
360,000,000 GBP 0.0025 (October 2022)
16,000,000 GBP 0.00125 (October 2022)
52,083,334 GBP 0.0023 (December 2021)
52,368,750 GBP 0.0015 (December 2021)
The last two rows above are Director Warrants fyi.'
However if you use the same link today https://www.mosmanoilandgas.com/company-structure
We find the following :->
263,750,000 GBP 0.0015 (July 2021) [Reduced as warrants for 37.5 Million and today 10 Million have been executed]
360,000,000 GBP 0.0025 (October 2022)
16,000,000 GBP 0.00125 (October 2022)
52,083,334 GBP 0.0023 (December 2021)
52,368,750 GBP 0.0015 (December 2021)
The 200,000,000 GBP 0.0023 (February 2021) have expired I thought it was to the end of Feb but not so clearly on the website now,
So no dilution on this one, (Good or bad, people will have their own opinions of that, but this is the position now),
Conspiracy Theory in me now finds the timing of the RNS yesterday's update a little odd, it could have been played differently , consider if this RNS was delayed until next week, the wording could have been :->
..There has been unexpected short term downtime at Falcon-1 of 4 Days last week due to exception weather conditions and actions were taken to protect
the production flow lines, This has been rectified now and Operations are back to normal..
..Stanley-1 has come on-line adding 47 bopd after (3 Days run, still awaiting steady state) but with Mosman share this will add to previously communicated 210 bopd gross with Mosman share of between 16-18% from the other Stanley Wells.
..There have been operational difficulties down to a number of factors from our previously communicated roadmap for 2021 however be reassured Planning is still on going with all considerations on the table.
The board will take forward the best options to maximise returns in order and will inform shareholders when this exercise has completed.
All still correct and accurate would the SP have sank so much on the news yesterday, or are they really compelled to communicate a potential FREEZE in the pipeline that has caused downtime for 4 days when it is so short term,
(Remember we get 3 or 6 months updates on any other Production sites we have!)
Also any short-term loss of monies would be recovered from the higher Gas prices we are seeing now.
Anyway just an opinion to put out there, RNS next week on Falcon-1 being re-started and back to normal Operations
(hope the market bounce it back as hard as it took it down!)
GLA
I really think it was a major overreaction today with the way the mms dropped the share price over such a short term issue especially in light of Stanley 1 back on line yes giving 8-9 bopd more to mosman but that took us up to 45bopd in total there .
It would be good to get the rns next week when we are back on line with falcon-1.
Huge volume today surely we have cleared out the previous warrant seller who had 35 million to drop into the market and even tomorrow when the latest warrants come in they are only 10 million shares we did 115 million shares volume today, so if they sell that would be gone in a couple of trades, I am hoping for a big bounce back and soon be retesting 0.2 again in short order.
Gla
Whatever the opinions the share price drop has allowed me to buy some at a price I would not have expected, Short termers selling or warrant seller depleting , I don't mind I am here for a longer term and this drop has allowed me to bring my average down, each to their own with regarding to trading or averaging down, I am hoping a bounce back RNS next week on Falcon-1 being fully operational again.
GLA
Wolfie,
Quite a harsh a report card there, a lot of it mostly justified.
The difference between a mission statement or an aspiration to drill each quarter is grand but needs to be married upwith work on the ground, and I amongst others here are frustrated between a disconnect on that type of communications from the board to the practical side of actually delivering that.
AS we all know really we are never in Charge of the Stanley's (not even Baja, it is a different Operator), However on previous comms they have said that after the Operator completed work on Stanley-1, The Operator would focus on preparing and Drilling Stanley-5, that may start this Quarter , but in all likelihood roll into the second Qtr.
They are in control with Baja on Greater Stanley and there was mention that Stanley-1/2 reserves runs into Duff-2 Well area, so there could be an opportunity to get going on that one which again would probably start in Quarter 2 this year.
Cinnabar technical and seismic work is doing due diligence and trying to ensure what would be a huge part of the money in the bank to do that drill given our percentage stake so that is probs a Quarter 3 to 4 thing in reality.
So we come back to Galaxie as the big drill for first half of the year imho and we will need to see how that is communicated.
You have not included any positives in your report card, so if we drill STanley5 and Stanley-6 this year, recomplete one or two Duff Wells, Get on with Galaxie and Cinnabar, then as SP Angel report indicated 7 times is possible.
I think to be fair the board realise that they need to 'honest' with the shareholders, and They never seem to over-egg anything and are quick to give us the 'real' news on the ground, I just hope when we start to get more concrete news on drills and re-completions that the market be fair then to see the share price rises, in the meantime I take some solace in the improvement in the current Stanley numbers and that Falcon-1 will be rectified by the weekend, like soulac there may be a hopeful surprise there if the fitting of new equipment has allowed us to open the choke a bit more, but until RNS'd that is speculative.
GLA
Reviewing the rns it seems there has been some temporary affect the weather has had in causing disruption to falcon-1 which should be resolved by the weekend , my take is we need to realise winter weather is going to affect our production as it has done in the past and the usual cold snap has caused operational issues.
The positives are we are up to 260 bopd now which given our share of 16-18 percent represent circa 44-45 bopd (might go down once Stanley-1 is steady state) at $60 poo simple maths is circa , for my calc I always simplify as 320 operational days (in case of downtime ) = 864,000 usd per annum then take of 30 percent for costs (259200) = 568800 usd profit per annum . That goes a long way to cover our costs and decreases burn rate add in falcon and we should be close to covering all operational costs if some say it is a million per annum in some people’s opinion.
That should leave plenty money for drills in the future without having to place.
Need to get through the next month patiently and then we should see things get really interesting for the rest of the year imho.
Gla
10 million small beans in perspective but added a little more to the coffers, oil and gas prices going great guns but never seems to reflect in share price it is got to adjust at some point .
Gla
Agree we should be double current SP given the rises in oil and gas, even if the MM's were forward selling the Warrant Shares just issued to put perspective on it , it is only 37.5 Million shares that would really not take long to be consumed,
so I agree there is still someone behind the scenes very sensitive to share price movements that seem to put in a batch of sells when it looks momentum is gaining with the share even in quiet days with no news.
There is case where we really should have seen 5-10 % increases getting us into the 0.2's without news.
Board really should be concluding their technical reviews, they have had since the start of the year to do their assessments,
would be good to get substantive news on next drill and timetable and that should blow away our annoying seller.
GLA
Hi BP11,
First post from you so welcome aboard I will answer your question in broad terms with what I know.
The big difference between Warrants and Placements, is Warrants are known and publicly available,
most times when there is a placement, like the majority of traders/investors you can be the wrong side of it, and see a share at 0.25 instantly fall to 0.15.
A lot of the time the Placement when announced on Aim provides the Placees with ridiculous discounts of greater than 30% etc., against the current share price at that time, as part of the Placement sometimes they are given sweeteners to seal the deal, this will be represented in the granting of Warrants at a higher price for the future, sometimes 1warrant share for 1 placement share or 1 warrant share for 2 Placements shares etc
e.g 0.15p for 1 Placement price with 1 warrant share that can be exercised at say 0.23 for a duration of a year or more to exercise them. (that multiples up by the number of Placement shares ovbviously)
FYI
Mosman advertises current Warrants on its website as below:->
https://www.mosmanoilandgas.com/company-structure
Warrants
200,000,000 GBP 0.0023 (February 2021)
311,250,000 GBP 0.0015 (July 2021)
360,000,000 GBP 0.0025 (October 2022)
16,000,000 GBP 0.00125 (October 2022)
52,083,334 GBP 0.0023 (December 2021)
52,368,750 GBP 0.0015 (December 2021)
The last two rows above are Director Warrants fyi.
The RNS today states
'...
37,500,000 new Ordinary Shares of no par value in the share capital of the Company (the 'Warrant Shares')
at a price of 0.15 pence per share.
...'
So interestingly this has been exercised at share price of 0.17p today in February when they had up to
July 2021 to exercise them.
Warrants imo are essentially golden tickets for prior Placees who provided the Company with Cash as long as the share price goes above and beyond the warrant price the placee will exercise all or some of the warrants then trade them in for a profit, hence there shares become available in the open market to buy or on rare occasions they may hold on to them longer for larger gains, their wish.
Whether Warrants or Placements when exercised they dilute the current share base but also provides extra cash for the company, it is more planned because it is already on the radar and should be considered when investing, not so much when trading short term imho.
Hope that helps, others may view them or hold different opinions on what are the differences between Placements and Warrants are.
GLA
I believe our gas prices are associated with Henry Hub prices in Louisiana
Price Quoted on 2/2/2021 (was $3.24) and we have gone up since then
https://ycharts.com/indicators/henry_hub_natural_gas_spot_price
Basic Info
The Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price measures the price in US Dollar per 1 Million Btu.
The price of Natural gas notably spiked in February of 2003 when there was a large shortage in natural gas.
The price of natural gas went from 5.58 to 18.48 within a month.
Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price is at a current level of 3.24,
up from 2.88 the previous market day and up from 1.90 one year ago.
This is a change of 12.50% from the previous market day and 70.53% from one year ago.
Oil prices approaching $60 (Remember Stanley oil is sold at a premium of a couple dollars so closer to $60 than $57wti currently).
So gas is up over 70 % in a year and oil price has doubled in two months and we still sit in this pathetic range.
AS you say Soulac any opportunity to produce more gas from Falcon the better if possible.
This Seller is defo getting on my nerves now and I am one of the calmest and very patient person out there, been in this share for 3 years now, with 2 to go in my investment plans.
GLA
No point in Speculating now what we sold at and what we could have sold at , that ship has sailed.
I saw somewhere that the game stoppers crew were going to go for silver next apparently.
Here’s hoping for similar percentage rises here though soon.
Gla
Wow,
I think that must be a world record on having a post removed, broke no rules , mentioned no live price (made a point of that)
yet my post was removed in nano seconds, someone is very sensitive about current share price movements here,
Surely I can say that! lol
GLA
Just did a dummy buy for small beans, can't tell you the price but they are demanding FULL ASK,
that's all I'm saying , anything bigger then small beans seems hard to get,
keep hoping our perpetual Seller has finally been depleted and then if the BOD could oblige with a stonking RNS
then that might get the excitement reignited, we were buzzing a month or so ago,
need to get that back as in this fickle world of AIM the share price tends to go up quicker on sentiment than actual value cases.
GLA
Hi Londoner,
Page 7 of Sp Angel Report clearly shows the growth expectations this year the company has laid out.
These diagrams and figures had appeared in earlier company presentations, so when you indicate you were 'shocked' at the current Stanley numbers (which now look around circa 35/36 bopd net to Mosman of the 210 currently generated),
I had already acknowledged the drop.
I had hoped pre-Christmas with the RNS in October for Stanley-4 showing a figure on its own of 200 bopd, we would be closer in the 60-66 bopd to Stanley which I did post a few times that figure in that period).
So as other posters have said we got to put this into some context, last year was all about SURVIVAL and Stanley-2 was shut down deliberately etc, negative prices etc now that does come without consequences when trying to get things back up and going, so it now looks start of Qtr 1 all Stanleys are getting up and going but we need now to reset our expectations in line with what the board had already been acknowledging even prior to the RNS on the Stanley's yesterday.
The figure (35 to 36 bopd) above is the reality now.
I agree and have no doubt that the bod see Stanley-5 and then Stanley-6 later as re-establishing the numbers at Stanley to be closer to the 60-66 output by year end I had previously stated and believed.
Another thing to consider 35 bopd at $35 dollars poo we were talking about 2 months ago has changed to 35 bopd at circa $55 Dollars now , so if we had 60 bopd at $35 dollars back two months we would be getting roughly the same income anyway, so you cannot discount the Price of Oil here either as hopefully that continues to increase as has been stated by other posters.
In addition Falcon-1 is producing us 69 boepd now also contributing to Income.
If we continue on in the Growth path that is where the Analyst, not me, is predicting 700% growth and 2.6 Million.
The only reason we continue to be down is there is a serial Seller managing to keep us at this level, when they deplete the
share price will bounce up accordingly with the current level of expectations being set out.
So in Summary would I want more from the Stanley's Hell YEA!, but if we can move forward this year in line with the predictions outlined by the board in Page 7 of the SP Angel Document then I will be more than happy with that growth.
As before in line with other posters thoughts we do believe we should be drilling at least one well now, I do not know how long it takes do do the technical reviews and considerations , I just wish that would hurry along,
Shareholders and investors like me have every right to make demands on the board, and it there responsibility to listen and act in the best interests of the company and the shareholders. However we must also respect and back our board when they set a path of doing 4 wells in one year and as I say it is published in black and white in Page 7, and that is what we should be measuring the Board against as the year progres