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It has always been the politics between the Kurds and the ICG. This time it sounds like it has finally dawned on them that if they want to take advantage of the high OP ( for probably the last time ) then they need to start acting like adult politicians and negotiate with each other in good faith. Then , and only then , when the win/win deal is done , will the majors return to Iraq in any numbers.
IMO
Hopefully the USA will step in and bang heads , but with Trump gone I doubt it. Biden always was Obama's man and Obama had no sympathy for the Kurds. Option 2 is to go it alone and drastically increase production , with Shaikan being one source.
But they will need serious Investment to achieve that and they wont get it from GKP.
Interesting Times , but at least Baghdad have been forced to show there hand.
IMO
Yes a MoU could be signed off for Shaikan - in principle. Depends with whom. If its the likes of EXXON , they are extremely risk averse and might be waiting for the HCL . Exploration Drilling is obviously an acceptable risk for them but a multi $billion asset purchase is probably a step too far. Not so the Chinese tho, with their support from Iran. But I cant see the yanks being too happy about that - even Biden.
So we wait - again.
IMO
Couple of point from that post. (1) Negotiating a MoU takes a long time , even a few years. (2) I also notice it states "Iraq Oil Ministry" not Southern Iraq so excludes Kurdistan (presumably)
My opinion is that no large projects in the O&G sector in Kurdistan would be agreed until the HCL was signed off. So no , I do not think it is Shaikan , more like the old Shell projects they walked away from.
Iraq and Total sign MoU for "Large Projects"
28th January 2021 in Iraq Oil & Gas News { By John Lee }
Iraq's Ministry of Oil has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with French oil company Total.
According to a statement from the Ministry, both sides have "achieved advanced cooperation steps towards implementing large projects in the oil and energy sector."
The document was signed in Baghdad by Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul-Jabbar Ismail and the CEO of Total, Patrick Pouyanné.
(Source: Iraqi Ministry of Oil)
Has to happen one day.
They have also asked the US for ~ $100 billion aid in the long term , but Biden taken over has delayed things. Trump told them do a deal or no cash.
If they want IMF loans then the IMF will supervise/set the budget. This will be one driver , others will be the USA pushing both parties and the fact that both budgets are dependent on the OP. An OP that wont remain this high forever.
So they need to change , and time is running out for both the ICG and KRG. I am more hopeful than at any time in the past 10 years.
IMO
Then the long awaited Oil & Gas Law finally looks like it may be accepted by both parties. Something I personally have always assumed a necessity for any potential buyer.
IMO
This is the way the Industry operates. It gets periodic downturns every 15-20 years and the response is always the same. They cut budgets /investment and projects . This helps create a serious supply/demand imbalance and off we go for another boom. This time will be no different. I notice even Warren Buffet has jumped on the O&G Sector and is buying in - heavily.
Its just a matter of time and this year will see it happen.
IMO
Brian Singer and Bonnie Herzog of Goldman Sachs Research
After suffering a pandemic-induced demand shock, the oil industry is expected to recover on the back of stronger demand, lower supply and greater clarity around energy policies, according to Goldman Sachs Research’s Brian Singer, who discusses the industry outlook and shares takeaways from the firm’s annual Global Energy Conference in a recent episode of The Daily Check-In. “We have a bullish view on 2021 both from an oil perspective and then also from an equity perspective, and that's because from a macro perspective, we think oil demand recovers in 2021 and we think non-OPEC supply does not,” he says. Part of that bullish view depends on whether oil producers maintain capital discipline in the face of rising prices, Singer notes.
You would need to be exceptionally gullible to even begin to think that Broadford Bay was a genuine GKP Investor CCC.
I'm not stalking I'm laughing.
LOL
"Firstly i am not defending BB or anyone else "
I believe the main reason for his " so called bashing GKP " as you have put it, is to challenge the never ending and ridiculous over hyped ramping from the small group we have entrenched on the different bulletin boards on a daily basis“
It depends on the composition of the gas. Sometimes they can clean it up i.e extract the methane and sell that as fuel gas , then reinject the rest to enhance production . If that is not economic then push the lot back down a specifically designed well. The issue with that is it has to be reinjected under pressure. i.e re pressurised on the surface and requires a gas compression skid.
7th January 2021 in Iraq Oil & Gas News
By John Lee.
Iraq has reportedly awarded a Chinese company a deal which would see it paying $2 billion upfront for a year's supply of oil.
Alaa al-Yasiri, General Manager of State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) told Iraqi News Agency (INA) that a Chinese company had won the contract ahead of a European company, but did not identify the company.
Bloomberg had previously reported that China's ZhenHua Oil was poised to sign the contract.
Yes its all looking very good indeed. In spite of the never ending troll-a thon that would have us believe otherwise.
Lets hope 2021 is the year we , the few genuine LTH on here , have been waiting for .
A good new year to you all.
The whole point of O&G Industry Contracts is the fact they are NOT meaningless. They have evolved over the decades into very powerful tools. IF they are implemented and also if they are not. The issue isnt the contract , the issue is GKP have chosen NOT to push non compliance by the KRG/MNR.
So you have a company ( say) worth £100 with 25 shares ; So each share valued at £4.00 each
You buyback 20% ~ 5 shares on the open market and cancel them (say) so we now have : 20 shares worth £5.00 each.
So how have shareholder lost out ?
I also held Cove and remember 2 things , the first being the Broker SELL recommendation about 3 - 4 days before the Shell ? Offer and the 2nd bid from the Koreans that superceded it.
So far as GKP goes I wouldnt write anything off , the Kurds will need all the oil revenue they can get , so increased production will be a priority and GKP do not have the resources to fast track the required projects . Then with the world economy and OP set to recover strongly by Q2 2021 now would be a good time to buy assets.
IMO
More balance. The debt can be easily rolled over and the ICG have agreed to pay KRG Oil Company debts If an agreement is reached. The 55k bls upgrade will easily be financed over the duration of the project. As is normal or from cash in the bank.
Talking about probabilities , Simon has a 50% probability of being right.
LOL