The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Rail was promised Feb delivered June.
HMW2 was on site Feb promised shortly thereafter - will be brought into use who knows when??
We were making 250 dollars profit per tonne two weeks ago now 150 per tonne. That's a 40% drop in the ebitba forecasts everyone was producing. (Current share price still hasn't dropped 40% from ATH)
Now it seems 2/3rds of the resource can only be accessed by underground mining which is not profitable. The remaining 14m tonnes will only keep the HWMs going 14 years and is much less than the 30 years inferred and less than the 17m stated in the IPO which was silent on the underground mining point.
Why do you think the drop is overdone again?
-13% isn't a meh reaction - it's a bad reaction.
The proportion of underground resource is bad news.
The delay in HWM2 is bad news.
My gut was telling me to sell at 8am - really need to start listening to it.
Happy to take some humble pie though you also missed the rise to 82p on the anticipation of news in last couple of days.
I can see this continuing to drop now with just 1/2 year accounts due in June which won't bring good news.
Big drop this morning on very small volumes. Remember someone bought £300k at 80p at close yesterday. Coal prices look to be stabilising / recovering - up again today in the Chinese market. Look forward to an update from AW shortly and newsflow still strong with HWM2 permits/repairs completion due in next 2 weeks.
https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/5102320/coking-coal/Premium-hard-coking-coal-fob-prices-rise-Chinese-domestic-prices-stable.html
What's the difference BBB?:
CEO comments on resource upgrade in podcast to official resource report.
CEO comments on ACTUAL production (in Proactive Investors) podcast to half year financial report.
According to you only unexpected news affects the price.
You already announced you sold out and looking for 60p buy in so I understand why you are saying resource report will have no impact but disagree. Reason why the train arrival didn't result in a price increase was due to: the significant drop in coal price over the same weekend and throughout last week; the poor Roast interview where they weren't clear on ACTUAL production and how many trains per month to expect in the short term.
BBB we have already been told ACTUAL production via podcast (2,000 - 3,000 tonnes per day) so by your own definition this will have no impact on the price when it gets RNS'd. Price now moving forward as coal is up today :) and in anticipation of the 'meh' resource report.
https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/5101816/coking-coal/Premium-hard-coking-coal-prices-gain-on-Monday.html
Coal is up today!! :)
You would expect some pent up demand but this is the $64m question. Fitch solutions have the price forecast for 2022 averaging $375pt peaking in Q222 before dropping in H2 whereas tradingeconomics show it increasing again and going into the $500s. Coming back to fundamentals though - even at a safe $100pt profit this will be well under valued once we are up to full production.