Discord good post10 Dec 2024 10:47
Cas 2 tested (gross) at "26.4 MMcf/d of natural gas and an estimated 547 bbls/d of NGLs", This was placed on production for 3/4 of the month at a choked (gross) rate of 20 MMcf/d. If the NGLs are proportional to the Gas flow, then we would expect 400 bbls/d of NGLs (gross). This would be 300 bbls/d of NGLs (gross) averaged over the month. So the net figure would be 240 bbls/d of NGLs on average for the month. This assumes no decline in liquids, which from memory was very quick at Cas A wells, so I would expect Cas 2 to add somewhere in the range 150-240 bbls/d of NGLs to the November averages. But we have seen 341 bbls/d of NGLs increase in November. This says to me that the missing Cas 3 oil must be being counted as NGLs and in November added between 100-200 bbls/d, which adjusted for half a month and net, would give a gross flowrate of 250-500 bbls/d. If no liquids decline at Cas2, then the Cas3 number is half what we expected, this could be because of problems with flow or production starting a week later than expected. If significant decline in liquids at Cas2 (which would be no surprise), then Cas3 would appear to be flowing close to the expected rate for the half month and we are just making up problems. All of this confusion could be avoided if TXP just released some simple and consistent information in their monthly data.