Member Info for SunkenSailor

Good revenue for GGP but beware, much more upside at GBP, better RVR

Holding but not adding yet, didn't like that big sell a few weeks back

Anyone know, what SP discount the last placing GGP placing was set at?

Nothing but positivity, maybe you nipped to the toilet during the chat about -

1. The coming placing?

2. Aussie investors selling out of UK AIM GGP listing to buy of ASX GGP listing.

Syd, Those production metrics are great if they continue, with no debt, so there is some good potential for GGP mcap growth in the near term, if GGP continue to deliver with Telfer as planned. And then the future obviously even brighter when Hav comes online.

I suppose on the potential downside, the MD mentions a liquidity event (placing) needed for the ASX listing, was that the fwd selling last week? what will the placing price be?

And also he mentions GGP key Aus investors / investment houses transferring their holdings from UK AIM to ASX listing. Does that just involve them sellilng their AIM holding, and buying on the ASX? It might be better to invest in the ASX listing? As extensive selling on the UK AIM listing would obviously put downward pressure on the SP.

Guess, see how the UK markets take the MD presentation next week.

Sydjames, Thanks, appreciate you providing a number for Telfer production. If like you say the current position for GGP is that "GGP Miner making roughly £70 million a month", then I can understand there is upside for GGP. GGP mcap £750, with recenue of say £750M annual, giving a 1-1 annual earnings to mcap ratio, especially if people here have reported that GGP having no debt.

Great that you can actually provide a number, rather than most others, who just seem to be saying GGP are now a producer, so upside in the SP is a "no brainer without risk".

Can you point me to where GGP have reported that revenue has been actually been generated (£70M, in recent months from Telfer) since GGP took control of the mine.

Is that number in a GGP RNS?

Or is it still a forecast - "what they plan to deliver from the mine".

Also can you advise me with the expected profit margin on the £70M a month revenue?

If it is all about Telfer, then maybe the risk is that some of the old Telfer mine issues, come back to haunt the mine. Seems quite a lot of historical articles on production issues, lots of articles come up in a quick google search below.

I suppose any negative Telfer mine news like that going forward, would see the MMs mark the SP down from the current 750 million mcap.

And on the upside any good new on ongoing production revenue streams, might push it up towards speedys target of 40p SP target, 3 billion mcap.

https://www.google.com/search?q=telfer+mine+production+risks&sca_esv=37989991c7ab7d35&source=hp&ei=B8GwZ4qEAaSDhbIP0OO06Q0&iflsig=ACkRmUkAAAAAZ7DPF-9tvzWUxNyid_O95ywujdpi4nSL&ved=0ahUKEwjKo_XqjMaLAxWkQUEAHdAxLd0Q4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=telfer+mine+production+risks&gs_lp=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&sclient=gws-wiz

Speedy, Good to see you have am upside target and are now accepting there is some downside risks, seems you at least can explain why you are invested.

Seems near term upside for GGP is dependent on how much value Telfer can bring then, and that Telfer revenue stream can pay for the cost of bringing the Telfer upside into production.

Haveiron is still way down the road.

Speedy, so you are long looking for upside bags?

At least you have mentioned three upside drivers, what is your target price up based on those drivers?

But you see no downside risk?

What about potential for Telfer issues, interuptions in production and further costs or placings to drive the growth at Telfer

What about potential gold consolidation after big moves

What about futher Haverion mine building costs

Do GGP have debt to serve, does current production service it

You don't see any downside potential?

So neither of you can actually really say anything about where it can go and why? either to the upside or the downside

You dont't have targets? What is your strategy here then? are you just playing the 2.5 year range trend?

Are you just following the words of another investor? Do either of you know why are you invested in GGP?

Hi Tom, Daz, Shame you don't like it, the analysis is based on GGP chart.

Can you both explain, what your upside target price is for GGP, and why do you think the share will acheive it, 3 key upside drivers? How many bags up do you expect, and why?

Also, what are say the top three key risks you see for GGP, which could drive the share price to the downside? How many bags down risk do you see, and why could they occur.

Lee I'll post it again for you to read through over the weekend, with some more explanation, so you can read it again.

As maybe you didn't understand the analysis & comparison between GGP and GBP, which is based on GGP own historic chart during the GGP bullish exploration phase, when GGP also had no revenue. The analysis is about comparing the exploration phases, and it shows high potential upside for GBP based on GGP historical bullish phase.

But as we know GGP is now in a "Haveron mine building", "Telfer old |mine production activation" phase, where operational costs and production, construction issues can easily effect the mcap growth prospects. So many miners go back and hit the lows again.

For clarity, my target price for GGP is 0.09, hammer candle down in the daily candle 31/3/2016, which predicts lower price than 0.10 will be seen at some point.

That coupled with the fact that it is common place that miners hit their lows in the "mine building phase", I think that candle would be a typical target for the bears.

If you want to stay long, thinking there is upside and don't want to sell out in full, you can always manage the risk by selling half, that way you have cash to average down, when the share price here heads down and hits the lows. At the moment the share price here is currently at the upper end of its 2 1/2 year range, so it is a good time to sell, and put a strategy in place.

Nasty looking candle this week in the GGP weekly chart, might start heading down again towards my my target price of 0.09.

Hammer candle at the lows on 31/3/2016, so many miners re-trace to the lows, following the Exploration success in the mine building disaster phase.

As I posted here last week with the GBP to GGP comparison, GBP or so many of the other shares available, have much better risk vs reward metrics than GGP. So advising those long here to take care, with such a high mcap stock on aim, and manage your investment strategy, for all eventualities.

just**** you say back to the lows, but it could just as easily head back to 40p from here

You were calling it a pump and dump at 0.1 Davey before it took 130 bags to 13.

If it takes that head and shoulders through the 13 highs, then it could head upto 25.

I cannot believe you have the gall to post anything here Davey, after getting it out by 130 bags already.

Just thought I would post today to show you two different RVR (risk vs reward) scenarios and consider why we invest in a stock - GBP & GGP. (for me, invested long, it is a high potential number of bags up vs lower potential number of bags down).

Most aim stocks are unpredictable, so good to have funds for all scenarios, including your stock heading back to the lows. There are risks to consider in both stocks, £750mil mcap (GGP) and £7.5mil mcap (GBP). And different opportunities in both for(upside too.

Just trying to help really, maybe you are concerned GGP is being targeted by shorters, well Today's price in GGP allows you to take out any funds invested in GGP, over pretty much the last 2.5 years, without loss. I understand the comparison is not to everyone's liking, but maybe food for thought for some & it is based on GGP history, back in its bullish phase.

Looks like a good time to consider where your options for where your money is best placed.

GBP GGP investment case comparison from a few weeks ago, not much changed.. It helps to show the upside RvR for GBP, which is why most remain invested, for the upside if potential resources turn into proven reserves.

Greatland gold, GGP RVR - Potenital risk, the lows 120 bags down (you decide) versus the potential rewards, 5 bags up ? (the highs)

Global Petroleum GBP RVR - Potential risks, the lows 4 bags down versus the potential rewards, 1125 bags up (based on GGP exploration and feasibility phase growth metrics)

GGP explo minor with (major) mining aspirations, SP 7.2, Mcap 750 mil, 23 bil proven reserves, Mcap to reserves ratio of c. 1:30, sitting 5 bags below its SP high of 37, and 120 bags above its SP low of 0.06. Target? - to retest the highs 5 bags up. During GGPs explo and feasibility phase the GGP SP hit a high of 37 a circa 3.75 billion Mcap, giving a Mcap to reserves ratio 1:6, a share price at that time that was 616 bags above its low - way overbought at that point !

GBP explo minor SP 0.17, Mcap 8 mil, c.55 billion unproven prospective resources (a guess pending on farm in terms and Juno results), a mcap to prospective resources ratio of c. 1:6875, currently sitting 4 bags above its SP low of 0.04, with an SP all time high of 33, so currently 200 bags below its SP high. Future target SP? If the same as happened during GGP explo phase happened here (ie prospective resources are proven), then maybe the mcap to reserves ratio (once proven) can increase from 1:6875 to 1:6 like it did at GGP, that would mean the GBP mcap would be 55 billion divided by 6, c.9 billion, which is a share price of 191, and is 1125 bags up from the current SP of 0.17

Good time to switch from GGP to GBP

GBP GGP investment case comparison from a few weeks ago, not much changed.. It helps to show the upside RvR for GBP, which is why most remain invested, for the upside if potential resources turn into proven reserves.

Greatland gold, GGP RVR - Potenital risk, the lows 120 bags down (you decide) versus the potential rewards, 5 bags up ? (the highs)

Global Petroleum GBP RVR - Potential risks, the lows 4 bags down versus the potential rewards, 1125 bags up (based on GGP exploration and feasibility phase growth metrics)

GGP explo minor with (major) mining aspirations, SP 7.2, Mcap 750 mil, 23 bil proven reserves, Mcap to reserves ratio of c. 1:30, sitting 5 bags below its SP high of 37, and 120 bags above its SP low of 0.06. Target? - to retest the highs 5 bags up. During GGPs explo and feasibility phase the GGP SP hit a high of 37 a circa 3.75 billion Mcap, giving a Mcap to reserves ratio 1:6, a share price at that time that was 616 bags above its low - way overbought at that point !

GBP explo minor SP 0.17, Mcap 8 mil, c.55 billion unproven prospective resources (a guess pending on farm in terms and Juno results), a mcap to prospective resources ratio of c. 1:6875, currently sitting 4 bags above its SP low of 0.04, with an SP all time high of 33, so currently 200 bags below its SP high. Future target SP? If the same as happened during GGP explo phase happened here (ie prospective resources are proven), then maybe the mcap to reserves ratio (once proven) can increase from 1:6875 to 1:6 like it did at GGP, that would mean the GBP mcap would be 55 billion divided by 6, c.9 billion, which is a share price of 191, and is 1125 bags up from the current SP of 0.17

Https://www.google.com/search?q=scgl+share+chart&sca_esv=7d935f78db81bbbe&source=hp&ei=FESrZ_7UAZeGhbIPmamS8Qc&iflsig=ACkRmUkAAAAAZ6tSJL-UhiQBIyBRKSlFgzDwQtDZfV4W&ved=0ahUKEwj-rqr80LuLAxUXQ0EAHZmUJH4Q4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=scgl+share+chart&gs_lp=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&sclient=gws-wiz