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hi Larry,
thank you for your reply and corrections, I made some mistake. The situation for Chariot is much more better than I first thougt. :-)
ad 2. unfortunately I don't know the situation exactly, but the timing of diplomatic steps is especially weird. In my opinion economical aspect is not the main factor in this situation, but it can solve till 2024 if there is political will.
point 3. agree with you, the recent price spike is not normal, partially thanks to EU's mistake on gas contracts. But the energy security is main priority in politics, especially in dinamyc growing countries. As far as I can judge gas demand in Morocco (as in Europe) is growing, but supply is stagnating. Naturally I might be wrong, but this is my expectation.
I hope the drilling results will be good. come on Chariot.
thanks
Hi Larry,
first of all excuse me for my english.
Well I see price differently:
1. there is a nord stream 2 problem in Europe, (pipeline is ready, but permission is prolonging), so gas price is increasing on the continent. (As far as I know in UK electricity bills higher than 1 year ago, too) Moreover new german government don't want to permit nord stream 2 (US put pressure on Germany), while some german provinces deserves it as well as germans.
2. Moroccan energy security. Algeria is stop supplying gas to Marocco from November 2021. Thanks to this new situation gas price is higher than one year ago, in my opinion this situation not will change in near future (not only tense Algerian-Moroccan diplomatic ties, rather moroccan economic growth) as SDX q3 says: "higher revenue in Morocco due to increased production following strong demand rebound after COVID-19 shutdowns in early 2020 and an additional factory being supplied (2021: 951 boe/d, 2020: 735 boe/d). Revenue was further boosted by higher prices due to the strengthening of the Moroccan dirham and the additional factory taking gas at a higher price than the portfolio average"
3. I don't know Chariot has to sell natural gas only to Marocco, or there is opportunity sell to Europe (in Spain price is around 25-30 USD)
so in my opinion 8 USD is the worst case scenario, 10-12 USD is more realistic nowadays.
so come on Chariot
thanks
Larry,
this is not correct. You referred to SDX report and wrote around 10 USD/Mcf price, but in 2021 Nine months ended net realised average Morocco gas price was 11,39 USD/Mcf. It is not the same. You know what is your aim...
Hi Agricore, very good summary with realistic numbers, congratulation.
I agree with you, we are not far from fair value, maybe a bit undervalued. By-products can cause huge surprise, in sp as well.
I think it's a good interview with numbers and strategy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UMgOD8XlJU
John117 thank you for your reply. I read in Quarterly Production Report: "These production delays can be regarded as extraordinary and did not reoccur during the remainder of the quarter."
I'm a bit nervous about this 'did not reoccur', in my opinion it will be luckier: "solved all the problems" I hope you are right and I'm failed. In my opinion in Europe we assume that power supply works normal, but some places in Africa there is problem with it. Without electricity can't work crushers, mining etc.
So AV do work, I'm crossing fingers. (sorry my English is weak) thanks
first of all: I'm not good in English, sorry.
1. I think ATM need to solve power supply problems. Have you heard about this? AV nothing said about it.
2. ATM should inform shareholders about circuit breakdowns, power supply problems (in time, so in March). Shareholders give their money, AV need to inform them.
3. I want to see a clear timeframe about production increase. Phase 2: 5000 t/y (4-5 years), but let's talk about Phase1
4. numbers: ATM want increase production from 180 to 300 t/Q, it means approx. 200 t tin/Q cash cost: 19.000 USD
In my opinion AV need to show results and timeframe.
"AfriTin is managed by an experienced board of directors and management team with a current strategy to ramp-up production at the Uis Tin Mine in Namibia to 10,000 tonnes of concentrate in a Phase 2 expansion,..."
Last year it was 5,000 tonnes. It sounds great.
maybe?:
"On 5 May 2020, loan notes to the value of £2 050 000 were issued. The loan notes bear an interest rate of 10% per annum (payable in full on redemption) and have a 12-month term. The redemption of the notes can be by way of cash or shares, but the repayment mechanism will be by way of mutual agreement and the Company is not obliged to issue shares. The notes are unsecured and rank in subordination to the working capital facility with Nedbank Namibia. As part of the agreement, the subscribers to the notes received 10 warrants for each £1 subscribed, each warrant giving the holder the right to subscribe for one share in AfriTin. The warrants can be exercised at any time from the date of issue and will lapse after 3 years. The exercise price of the warrants is 1.95 pence." Annual report 2020 pp. 76.