Member Info for Stupmy

The market makes can't see your stop losses, your broker can. MM's can work out where stop losses are most likely to be, and I have read that they will deliberately seek volume around limits/and stops. I have no personal experience to back that up. In my view, the SP is behaving in a predictable fashion for the moment.

Learning, it's actually quite uncommon for a company to telegraph something in the results. It's illegal if done deliberately, but uncommon if something leaks. It is unlikely that the SP movements are related to leaks. The wider UK markets are off in general.

I just looked at your post history nuri. On the 7th of this mth, someone handed you 100k pounds of shares for 76p. Did you love that? You described it as 'cheap and an over reaction'. You cannot make up the tosh that people talk on bb's. Anyone, can say anything without any rationale and without any research or work of any kind done? What a weird world.

On Nov 8th 10:06 I posted the idea that the SP might rise to 66 (I later revised it down to 61/62) then fall back to retest the lows. I suggested that might happen on Monday (which it didn't). I can't help wondering whether that process is now starting. Of course no-one can see into the future (apart from Alexei Sale) so maybe going to race ahead.

You're right rizzel, but I guss what you're saying is that it's hard to get the bottom. Which I'm guessing is related to Mary's strategy. i.e. you buy on what you think is a/the low, but in a risk weighted fashion, then add if you see another low (in a risk weighted fashion), same as drip feeding into a market with the view that over time the market will rise and your drip feeing will give you an average entry at or above the SP. I try to figure out where the bottom is, only buy companies that I think will be around for at least the next few months, but I don't assume they will be 'off to infinity and beyond'. No-one can confidently get the bottom every time, but the figures being bandied about over Mary's trades suggest that she's a long way off. In this case i.e. WG it seems to have come as a surprise to most that the SP had this 2nd big leg down. Maybe something that was unavoidable (out of hours news is a cluster f ck). Maybe in other markets she's closer to the bottom. This one might very well be an outlier. We all have bad trades.

Gruyere, I'm assuming that's Mary/Elena. I've always found her arrogant and I don't like that. Also arrogance in trading/investing is not a good quality, it'll lead to an elevated number of poor calls. She's been on filter for a couple of years from memory (I really did try to not too as she appears to have a certain knowledge and seems to do some work), but people seem to like her and her posts as I often see references to them a apparently positive responses to them.

Nothing she's ever posted has helped me to make a profit so it's an easy filter from me.

What you've posted above from her, is totally incomprehensible to me and would (without a great deal of reflection, appear to represent some big losses and poor decision making.

Oh, and thanks offmessage.

I can see that one, but it's not confirmed. We'd have to wait and see whether the RSI turns up. I see the price showing a lower low, but the divergence is speculative for the moment. I personal do take notice of divergences, but a divergence on a 1h chart is not a strong indication of a big change to come. The longer the time frame the less frequent a confirmed divergence is and the more likely it will lead to decent sustained move.

Down to 252ish I think most holders will tolerate the pain. I think if it drops much below that, the pain/fear will caused PI's to accelerate their selling to reduce risk/loss. Markets have a knack of seeking out weakness and inflicting pain, so I don't think it's at all unlikely that we'll see lower prices here. Doesn't have to make sense in the way those who do some fundamental research want it to. If you look at bb's it's clear that many PI's have no process at all for investing/trading. That means they have no edge, they bring nothing to the table and most will take nothing from the table. They have no comittment to their positions which means their tolerance for discomfort will likely be low (I don't like the term as it's perjoritive, but these are the weak holders). There are a lot PI's that can be easily shaken out. So, I favour lower prices here.

Sorry 'Collingham' not Collingwood.

For clarity I bought at 254ish, will add around 252. That might seem odd to some based on my beliefs, but 'no-one' including myself can see into the future. I've said before that there's a schizo battle in my head between what I think it s reasonable price (value) and what I think it going to happen to the price. As I don't know. I've started buying. But it's all risk weighted. I won't go in heavy until it is clear what the SP will do.

Sittingduck, I don't want to be awquard, but I can't see your bullish divergences on 4h, 1 d or weekly charts if you're talking about RSI14 diverging from price. I guess we all interpret things slightly differently with TA/charts and maybe that is makes it difficult (subjective?), but this should be objective and I simply can't see it. For me, there is a reasonable liklihood of us seeing 235 or below (eventually 222ish or below). I think it is very likely we'll see the 252 level that I've previously mentioned and I believe that Collingwood has also referenced.

Laura, you don't have to bet, it's a fact. There are two sides to every trade. There were buyers, the shares didn't simply slip through a tear in the time space continuum.

I should have said 'traded' rather than 'sold', but the dropping SP shows more were sells than buys.

Valueseeker, it's a matter of record that 87% of fundmanagers underperform the market (from memory US500 over the last 10years). For that you pay 1.5-2.5% management fees. Or do better with Vanguard with very low management fees on a tracker. Or find an approach that matches or beats (or at least turns a profit) the trackers and enjoy the process of decision making involved in what you're doing

If the shares sold on the recent drop were 60 million, then next day 34 million, then I struggle to see how franklin's 17 million sell was wholly responsible for the fall Jimmyloon? There was significant non-Franklin selling. I'm making the asssumption the 17million is correct. I haven't checked.

I filtered Mary a while back. In my view she's re-invented herself (I don't know why) and was previously Elena Saratova or something similar. Be careful!

Would that be legal Ice? I suspect not.

So Franklin Mutual halved their holding, presumably during the rout. Maybe others to report soon.

Here's the daily. So, although the 9 million is much higher than the daily average traded, it's much lower than the last 2 days (60million and 34 million) and the volume has been falling continuously more or less in every 2h period. Still not convinced that todays buying is short covering or II buying. But I don't know.

Here's the annotated daily chart should anyone be interested.

https://screenrec.com/share/aW0nhGliQC

That is indeed much higher (double the average daily number of trades). When I look at the data on my chart, the volume has been decreasing each 2h period . I've drawn an arrow to show the volume over time in 2h periods. There's maybe something I'm missing on this as I did check that volume of 9 million independently and came to the same result. All interesting stuff (I'll try to research why the difference, if there is one.

https://screenrec.com/share/r76Fpf8cOu

Makes sense, but I think there must be something else out there bringing the price off at the moment. We're still falling