RE: Think Newcrest will make an offer for Greatland5 Jun 2020 12:29
OK Joe, Ill play your Game since you seem to know a lot about the likely out come here as well and M&A during JV farm in within the gold mining sector..
1st question, How do NC or GGP value the asset in a way that keeps both shareholders happy with any offer made? Genuinely interested in your measured and well thought out response here, as I am sure many will be.
2) we already know there is likely a min of 5.5m OZ there, so to buy us out even on the public info of likely size now will cost a lot as NC will need to pay for 60% of the resource as they only own 40% currently, as a shareholder would you be happy with NC making an offer to GGP for 60% of the value of a likely 10mox plus reseource, when in a short few months, they can spend another 20m and increase there ownership and pay a far smaller % than the 60% they would have to pay now. I can see Sandeep in the board meeting now, "so Guys, you know how important Havarion is to telfer?, I know were about to drill 80km more and have yet to find the extent of mineralisation, but what Id like to do is make an outlandish offer that has to be accepted by the highly expectant GGP shareholders and I want to pay for 60% of this massif resource, yes yes I know we only have to spend 40 odd more million to own 70% and then only by 30%, but Id like to pay double the price now for the unknown resource instead of half the price for the known one on the way" Yup, sure to be slow clapped out the room I will ahve thought, but again, interested in your expect view here?
Make no mistake, I also believe they will buy us out of Hav (hopefully not all of ggp before we drill scally tho)(once 5% fair value is known and they own their 70%)
This board has been over this a gazzilion times, it makes no sense whatsoever for a company such as NC to suddenly become hostile in the hottest exploration province in the world where they currently dont own any licences and joiniors have a wonderful bounty of the hottest ones in town, mostly around us, what does that do for the next JV with anitpa or another junior when they also have multiple interested parties, or what if we then strike at scally or PRE and they come knowcking for a new one. it would be shooting yourself in the foot and from a reputation perspective and I feel would be seen as very short sighted and open the door to other majors. I have not seen NC behave in this way previously but perhaps you can enlighten me, always happy to be corrected with facts or apologise if wrong.
Anything is possible, Sure. So ill stick my neck out and say, if we are made an offer prior to MRE, Ill buy you a fizz pop and throw you a virtual bum slap to apologise for my naivety, Deal Joebass?