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Make your own investment choices and you will only have yourself to blame or congratulate. This is a long term investment however. Trade it at your peril is my opinion.
Its not often I pop in these days. Just wanted to wish everyone all the best on this huuuuuge Friday for the GGP faithful, today we hope to see our biggest derisking event behind us and the clear path to free cash flow from our tier 1 asset. Well done for holding and lets hope this is the start of the long and steady climb back up.
Dont worry Tymers and your gang, I am sure you can have a little swollow party later amongst yourselves.
Good luck all genuine holders!
Ducks Ducks Ducks
It’s a highly subjective view pulling figures from thin air. Anyone who has done the numbers knows that a slight alteration in grade/gold price and various other variables dramatically change the economics. He also assumes we stand still for 10 years and ignores the access the decline will allow. We won’t stand still for 10 years. I’ve had a 12 hour day at work. But that’s written very cleverly. Just like greenfool and others. It’s not to be discounted. Like Nitram says. It’s for us to pick it apart. One unknown(to me at least) mining or investment commentator will not sway my opinion. Steve todorick or Rick rule publishing that article wold make me sit up.
The entire article is based on NPv assumptions!!! We’ve been through this over and over. Thankfully we know how outdated those are. We also know that the npv assumptions(those used for the 5%) are outdated and conservative (gold price etc) I don’t profess to be a mathematics wizz. But this is not a discounted cash flow analysis and it’s certainly a fud article.At 35p maybe his last article was on point at that point in time. There is zero of the remainder of the company considered. This is a better launch asset that most mining ceos could dream of. It’s well written articles like this that cause PI’s to capitulate. Because he’s right on one thing. Many PI’s DONT do numbers. So throwing numbers at them as facts(even tho predicted) is the perfect bamboozeling tactic. The funny thing with numbers and a leveraged play like a miner is, that can change dramatically from a small variation of inputs.
I’m glad you posted the article @Nitram64. after a brief review. Very much in the camp of, Hes a shorter, doom monger and likely paid to write these sort of articles to gain advertising revenue on popular stock topics. Anyway. I’m off to bed. Night folks
It’s a fantastic effort. Well done sir. LSExit is here. Although is mostly left ages ago for telegram. At least the valued posters are moving across! Adios LSE. Till next year
The Beetham? Cos beat em we shall
gH also has 18m like Callum expiring next September, my money is on the less likeable of the two
Wishing all greatlanders a wonderful evening with a tipple of your choice to celebrate yet another major milestone in our journey. I dont come on here very often anymore but do come to read the key posters. Very very excited for MRE2 tonight, FWIW I do not see us being within 10% and I suspect tonight will confirm that 5% has not been agreed, but equally we could even have an offer and suspension this evening. All bets are off and for me the only way is up. I wont be getting off this train anytime soon in any case, been here 6 years, its the next 6 I am mighty excited for now!Goodluck all
Well I hope some of you were able to join in for the ggphelp show tonight! What a fantastic set of results, the 21st set and a new high grade sulphide discovery in the eastern breccia. Very upbeat language on significant potential of the havieron system by NCM right before the 5%.
Sets us up for an incredible month ahead.
Ducks Duck Ducks
Still here, Still Happy, Still adding. Next 6 weeks are going to be fantastic for the patient, next 6 years even more so.
I’m hindsight, you could say GH didn’t have a ****i n clue what he was doing and we were lucky to be rid of him before NCM tapped him out on more than just the jv renegotiation. Never liked the man. True colours in hindsight proved me a good nudge of character…. And a narcissist ??
Oh massively. I’m sure most here can see that. But why wouldn’t they. Imagine we discovered HAV at Ernest Giles and had a full greenfield exploration and ultimatiley 10-15 year discovery to mine build at least. We went from half a penny to 37p because of the Carlsberg like synergy with NCM!
We need them more than they need us. They hold the cards. Doesn’t mean we can’t negotiate hard.
GH left us in a **** cash position, with a **** juri JV that wiped the dfs and 5% after into a pfs and 5% before DFS scenario. If anyone is to be blamed for NCM having a bit of an unfair hand, it’s GH.
The timing could have been better but I’ll reserve judgment until I see what we get for the 5% and what we do with the money over the coming years.
If nothing else LSE this has put a floor under us, I’m assuming around the placing price. It makes the first quarter even more exciting, and for those of us planning to be here in years to come. It likely expedited that journey. Less now, more later and faster.
Another Duck. A positive one. The market agrees
Sparkle , I contend ,your post is the more interesting of the two.
Did you just suggest the 5% should bare more resemblance to the initial jv than the potential mine life and exploration and development upside when the 5% is agreed and with the knowledge and data presented at the time!
Do you work for NCM?just kidding.
Look, I’m happy to be called out on this when it happens, but within weeks we will be at a 5x or close enough multiple of whatever is agreed for the 5%. They are valuing the 12 blocks. So imagine a hit at Zipa just prior to the end of the first negotiation mid February,how does that fit in to your assumption below.
You are right. It’s totally unrealistic to expect the 5% to be valued on havarion as “final fully developed value” that’s just impossible!! But it would be equally naive to think we would agree not any independent agree to no subs A risk value for the future upside here discounted ofcourse. But to my mind, this is without doubt the biggest bear term catalyst for our company. The biggest test for our continued relationship with NCM too. The cards are firmly in NCM’s favour, that’s obvious but they always have been.
I fail however to see how you say the project is far from derisked? Have you followed our story? Telfer is saved. We are as derisked as it gets in mining development and exploration bar a black swan.
What is naive imvho is talk of NCM paying more for something that may not materialise? Why can we not be forward looking and why wouldn’t a premium be achieved for exploration upside?
I have mixed feelings about todays news.
Whilst I have always thought it inevitable, I didn’t expect it so soon, even tho the 12 month time frame placed on us from the nov 2020 juri JV by replacing the DFS 4th stage requirement with the pfs & 20m requirement should have led me there.
It’s too early! We haven’t found the edges and in fact those edges grades are getting better!!! How will we value this thing? Well, we know it’s going to likely take many years before we know the full extent. So if you had to draw a line in the sand, the mechanism chosen does seem to preclude a low or highball valuation and hint at an agreement with parties prior to this being needed.
Perhaps the net end result is 100-150m paying for our loan and share of capex for the starter mine which was likely always the intention of the 5% anyway.
Any overflow coupled with the placing capital could well see us progress faster than if we waited 6 more months to include more growth drilling.
Have NCM pulled a fast one. Meh. An obvious one from their standpoint. Will we get fair (being the operative word) market value in feb or soon after. I doubt it. Not in our eyes. But the cash and certainty will speed us up the other side of the lassondre curve and into production and a full rerate and larger institutional positions.
On balance. This felt like the bottom and todays news has cemented that imo. The only way is up now and reading the varying opinions on here and telegram today one thing is obvious. There is a lot of speculation and possibilities ahead in the near term. It’s gonna be a merry Xmas and a happy new year folks.
Ducks Ducks Ducks
Here we go with your 3-6 posts '1 month old dodge account' you won't last long here, believe me.... Spreading FUD - fear uncertainty and doubt - over the bulk underground, because that's essentially the only unknown left that such disingenuous posts can target.
Last year we had months and months of tecnhical FUD with the GreenTool and others - who said Havieron would never be economic... but here we are 12 months later with a gigantic starter deposit, a $50m decline going in, and $50m GGP cash funding to DFS, and a published phase 1 mine PFS to take to the bank ... so NCM can get ore to Telfer ASAP.
You may be able to confuse and scare the un-researched with your manipulation, but you cannot touch Bamps or me.
For the rest of you MrBig is a skilled and devious operator who last night was attempting to exploit an ostensibly clever argument. The posts were subsequently removed this am. For the correct reasons.
What he/she was trying to do last night was apply NCM's conservative, underground stoping phase 1 mine operational costs @ $84/tonne - actually $81/tonne according to GGP using the correct exchange rate to Bulk Underground production.
The first Stoping operation has naturally has lower volumes, due to the inherent volume limitations of the Stoping technique and higher costs - ore transport to surface limitation, requirement for drill and blast / explosives, and extra material handling, and subsequence labour in back pasting costs )
But you cannot apply this to the anticipated Bulk under ground block caving grades of the larger scale deposit where the cost per tonne would be circa $25-27/tonne
This is a totally and fundamentally inappropriate comparison made by BiggL - It's like comparing two completely different company cost structures, AND specifically designed to imply that anything under 1.5g is likely to be 'uneconomic'...
And It's total BS becuase we ALL know that Cadia is economic down to 0.4g/t Au... specifically due the bulk efficiencies of the operational costs.
And very much like comparing and interweaving the cost structure of building Ferraris directly to Ford Fiestas -
IE both make massive profits, BUT in TOTALLY different ways . Obviously You cannot make a profit building Ford fiestas in the way you build a Ferrari though. That would be loss making.
That's the best analogy I can come up with. And that is the tactic of this poster. Always Happy to smash them into touch.
Expect Multiple shorter accounts with a very obvious agenda.s
Regarding bulk underground : The only question is will this be a block cave or a more selective sub level cave...? Anyone with mining nouse can see that.. The grade in those breccia are nothing short of sensational. And a mine in their own right.
We will open things up. Will post a link! What incredible results! Generational wealth will be created here.
Thanks to all who joined us tonight, great to go through the results and magic!what a wonderful contribution. Thank you, I urge you all to listen until magic joins.
Brilliant.
Ducks ducks ducks
Good luck to all holders, excited to see what tonight brings, 5-25 holes is my range, of course hoping for the upper level of that. Hope to see some of you for the podcast later with bottle and myself as we react to the latest set of results and answer questions from the telegram group (if we can), no geologist on tonight show, but i am sure we will have their feedback in the chat to relay.
DUCKS DUCKS DUCKS
Nice to hear from your farmer lad. Glad you are still holding. It’s been a long journey until here, but acorns really do turn into oaks!
Ducks Ducks Ducks
Have you not been tempted back in on this recent artificial drip mate? You were a great contributor to the board. Jump back on. Most of the same folks still about, although other than days like this ,the board is tiresome.
What a golddaym day.
Ducks Ducks Ducks
Ducks Ducks Ducks,
So excited for the next few months. Been waiting for these milestones for a while. Locked and loaded.
GLA
And mine..
Ducks Ducks Ducks