Member Info for stt1

Russky,
"where are the resources coming from to expedite the UK clinical delivery here"

The insourcing works evenings and weekends. Consultants have restricted work times within the NHS. TLY uses consultant's evenings and weekends to perform operations. As you say
"a chunk of GP & consultants are nothing more than greedy chuffers."

With OO where's the barriers to entry? Where there's a market, other companies will enter.

Russky,
"There is also no logarithmic growth potential in TLY & its basically it has one core client. "

Look at the rns from this morning, Wellbeing offerings to corporations. They offer their services to Republic of Ireland, HMP, direct to GPs, so not just NHS.
As to net margins on NHS 111. That's 20% of their revenue, their regular income - it's not their growth areas.

They have circa 30% margins on insourcing work, postponed operations., Look at any news media, in England ALONE there are 6m patients on the waiting lists for operations. TLY operate in all 4 UK nations and ROI.

Becontrarian,
"at first glance it appears vulnerable to competition in addition to the inevitable high operating costs."

OO is also vunerable to competition, aren't they?
What's to stop someone setting up a similar company and doing exactly what OO do? Where are the barriers to entry?

Elrico,
"Given the problematic nature of the NHS, where TLY offers support services, some of which are not operating to their usual capacity, there is more uncertainty about the health of TLY while the pandemic continues to disrupt,"

That shows you haven't researched them.
NHS 111 is only 20% of their revenue.
They provide their services to Prisons, GP surgeries, Corporate clients etc.

They also provide their services in all 4 UK nations and recently expanded into Republic of Ireland, so have been expanding rapidly, despite covid restrictions..

Despite some of their areas being closed because of covid, they STILL increased revenues and cash. That shows you are completely wrong about the impact of covid on their business model.

Perhaps you need to do some proper research on them.

Hallsworthy
"cherry picking another healthcare company that has an unusually low SP vs revenue doesn't have any relevance at all to ORPHs position."
"It's meaningless and valuations are far more complicated than that."

I'm basing the comparison on the same metric that is used to ramp OO. REVENUE for 2 companies working in Health sector.

OO's Mcap is 4 x this year's revenue EXPECTATION.
TLY mcap is 1/2 this year's ACTUAL revenues.

Plus greater amount of cash, dividend paying, credible BoD who say what they are doing and not overpromise and underdeliver as OO Bod do.

Bobust.
"TLY are growing but OO has much more potential"
In what way do OO have more potential, every person needs healthcare covid or not and not just for this year but every year.
Everyone needs a company to administer the 100m vaccinations. Healthcare at airports, prisons, internationally.. It's a repeat, recurring increasing business.

Pharmas etc need challenge studies from time to time, ie so not repeated every year, year in year out.

TLY's last 3 years figures - see for yourself:
period, revenue, cash, adj ebitda
2019 £78m, £7.5m, £1.1m
2020 £105m, £8.9m, £4m
2021 £113M, £14.8m, £5m
H1-2022 cash £18.3m

Mikel, "You might as well say 7x or 10x revenue"

Have a look at TLY - mcap is 1/2 revenues.
Operates in healthcare, provides services to NHS and non-NHS organisations, operating across all 4 UK nations AND Republic of Ireland (huge footprint).
3 divisions:
1) Urgent Care
2) Planned Care
3) Insourcing.

Increasing recurring revenues of £100m+++ every year. (fy2021 was £113m)
Cash approx £18m as of interims.
Recently doubled interim dividend.
BoD who have done what they have said they would.

Bought another business today using existing cash reserves to add to their growing diversified business.

TLY:
Mcap £65m so 1/2 ACTUAL revenues THIS YEAR with £18m cash (as of interims).

OO:
I think OO at £150m or 3 x NEXT year's revenue EXPECTATION is overvalued..

spencer
"you will know the forecasted 2022 revenue of £50 million will be exceeded."

Exceeded by what, £20m, £30m, £50m???
Read my post, I wrote 'circa' £50m.

As you clearly done your research, can you specify exactly how much the £50m will be exceeded by???
The fact is revenue is booked and expected. It hasn't been received and it's not guaranted, contracts can get cancelled or delayed.
Revenue expectations can slip into the following year.

I think mcap which is 3 x NEXT year's revenue EXPECTATION is expensive.
Current cash is only around £15m.

Ruair
"A contract from a pharma co asking ORPH to do a challenge study is pretty impressive. "

They are gaining some contracts, that is not in question.

My point is they are expecting circa £50m next year and the Mcap is 3 x next year's revenue expectation, which I'm saying is too high, especially for a company who have overpromised and underdelivered.

Citizen
"there is little other news in town for the forseeable future"

That's the point, there's little other news in town to ramp it so it's ramped as a covid share when the investors focus is on covid but not when covid seems of less importance.
lol

Check the sp for yourself.

W/C 20th Aug the sp was ramped up from around 20p to around 26p.

The company announced their interims on 20th Sept and the sp fell and has drifted back since.

Given the fy ends in couple of weeks, I think the same thing is happening.

Check the sp for yourself.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORPH.L/history?p=ORPH.L

The same thing happened in Aug/Sept.

Look at the graph, just before the results in Sept, the sp rose a similar level. They then published their H1 stating behind analyst expectations and the sp fell.

Check the graph and H1 results for yourself.

sho
Look at the trades, this is traders churning, whilst hoping to entice newbies in.

Typical rise for a share which is churning.

Best to trade the hype.

So this is a covid share again. lol

When covid restrictions easing and it looks like covid shares not in favour, then this isn't a covid share.
When covid infections are surging then this is a covid share.

;-)

It looks like churning.
Lots of trader talk, so I would say it's lth trading.

fy2021 end is only 2 weeks away and no new news to back up the rise.

The mcap is 3 x next year's revenue expectation, which I think is too high for this company.

Russky,
It's a good point about public sector pensions etc.

That is the problem with the NHS, it is a huge burden on the taxpayer, even though they are also UK's largest employer and pay the most tax/NI themselves.
This is where the private sector fits in. There's no huge burden to pay the pensions of private sector employees.

If you look at the NHS, thousands of people work within the private sector contracted to the NHS, whether it be GPs/Nurses/Physios/cleaning/catering/ambulance drivers etc.

consultants employed by the NHS who are unable to work evenings/weekends can contract to companies like TLY, who will utilise their free time when offering Insourcing. This is where waiting times for operations can be reduced.

UCC/Walk in centres/NHS 111 would help reduce A&E waiting times by reducing unnecessary visits by patients with non-life threatening conditions going to A&E.

I can't see how there would be a takeover. The business hasn't really any track record, the Polb spin off is unproven and there's questions over CF's comments on over promising and under delivery.

I would have thought to be a takeover prospect they need actions to back up their bullish comments.

Rivaldo,
"Terrific news. Finncap retain their Buy and 44p target price"

How did Finncap do on your holdings, Byot and Trmr?

Byot was ramped with Finncap tp of 11p, yet the shares have crashed BASED ON EVENTS which I warned about. I posted the company/sector newsflow and reasons why the company won't do as well as the rampers were saying.
Current sp 4.5p, about 1/3 of finncap's tp.

Trmr. Finncap tp 1700p, current 550p. This was ramped but sp crashed BASED ON EVENTS which I warned about.
Current sp 550p, about 1/3 of Finncap's tp.

So the above 2 are about 1/3 of broker's target price?

I treat all broker's notes and tp with a pinch of salt and read them in conjunction with company/sector newsflow.

Rivaldo, given your previous experience of brokers targets, why is Finncap's target of 44p 'terrific'?

JimBean,

They are expected and not guaranteed because nobody knows what will happen in the future. Contracts/Payments can slip.

Look at ODX on Friday, they received £2.5m but now govn wants it back.

Elrico
"90% of 2022 revenues "booked now and could be 100% plus by the YE or early 2022." CF has previously stated COVID work is expected to add to this. A pretty solid position to be in."

They are expecting that revenue, they haven't received it and it's not guaranteed.
It's not a solid position to be in.
As to the contract on Friday, the rns says majority expected in fy2022, which ends Dec 2022. Nobody knows what will happen over the next 12 months, as ODX Fri rns clearly shows.

The mcap is 3 x NEXT year's revenue expectation, which is too high.

Titan
"So we got some clarity and visibility on revenue £40m -£50 m per year."

They are EXPECTING around £50m revenue next year.
There's no evidence that there will be increasing recurring revenues, is there?

We're in a pandemic so govn/pharmas are taking advantage to push for more treatments for other diseases.

If anything as covid vaccines/treatments are improved the priorities will change, as has happened many times in the past.

If you read Friday's OO expect the majority of the $13.4m (£10m) to be in fy2022(Dec 2022). Majority could be anything above 50% or £5m.

If you look at ODX's rns from Friday govn cancelled their order and are demanding money back.

Therefore, there can't be any clarity/visibility on £40m-£50m revenues per year as they can only state what they are EXPECTING next year(fy2022, Dec 2022) not what they WILL receive next year.