Member Info for stt1

Wiscos,
"FTBs obviously took a deep breath when mortgage rates were shooting up, and it's a quiet time of year for new activity. "

Potential homebuyers would take a deep breath and are likely to wait until mortgage interest rates come down. That's a huge loss of revenues and cash for HBs.

Broken housing chains and house prices will fall further.
Repossessions are rising, asking prices falling significantly, lenders forecasting house price crashes of 10-15%.

Wait until it really hits Housebuilders.

Stevebt
"House builders aren’t cutting back on Labour"

YET. They wouldn't be atm. There are homes still to be completed from orders taken months ago. Help to buy ended to new applications at end of last month, so they will need to complete homes for those orders as well.
I expect HBs will try and complete as quick as possible in case they are cancelled.

Rightmove.

House prices fall in November

Oct avg £371,158
Nov avg £366,999

https://www.cityam.com/not-a-good-monday-for-home-sellers-as-house-prices-dive-by-4k-in-just-one-month/

as mentioned, watch the demand decrease and supply increase

There are obviously buyers still going through the housing chain. However, there's been an exodus of FTBs. To have a fluent housing chain, you need FTBs.
I think FTBs are holding off until mortgage rates come down and housing market settle. That could be months or even year or so away.

As lenders have forecast house price crash of 10-15% and there are major affordability problems, I think more potential homebuyers, not just FTB, will hold off.

Exodus of first-time buyers puts brakes on UK housing market

"Figures from the property platform Rightmove show buyer demand fell 20% in October compared with a year ago, as house-hunters put their property searches on hold in response to soaring borrowing costs and rising economic uncertainty."

"Rightmove’s monthly house price index showed first-time buyers were the most hesitant, with demand down 26% in October. Demand from “second steppers” hoping to move from their first home was down 17%, while interest among those at the top of the property ladder was down 15%."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/14/exodus-of-first-time-buyers-brakes-uk-housing-market

As previous, watch the demand decrease and supply increase

There are obviously buyers still going through the housing chain. However, there's been an exodus of FTBs. To have a fluent housing chain, you need FTBs.
I think FTBs are holding off until mortgage rates come down and housing market settle. That could be months or even year or so away.

As lenders have forecast house price crash of 10-15% and there are major affordability problems, I think more potential homebuyers, not just FTB, will hold off.

Exodus of first-time buyers puts brakes on UK housing market

"Figures from the property platform Rightmove show buyer demand fell 20% in October compared with a year ago, as house-hunters put their property searches on hold in response to soaring borrowing costs and rising economic uncertainty."

"Rightmove’s monthly house price index showed first-time buyers were the most hesitant, with demand down 26% in October. Demand from “second steppers” hoping to move from their first home was down 17%, while interest among those at the top of the property ladder was down 15%."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/14/exodus-of-first-time-buyers-brakes-uk-housing-market

Lots of news this week for TLY and NHS

Tomorrow: H1 results.
Wednesday: Investor Presentation
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/totally-plc/register-investor

Thursday: Chancellor's Autumn Statement

Following on from lenders forecasting 10-15% house price falls, RICS index turning negative and forecasting house price falls, repossessions are also rising, April 2022 onwards.

90% up from last year.
15% up on the quarter

Watch the demand decrease and supply increase

Mortgage repossessions up 90% as families warned of ‘ticking time bomb’
Rishi Sunak urged to act as landlord repossession claims also shoot up

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/mortgages-repossessions-landlord-evictions-rent-b2222207.html

Up 15% on the qtr:

House repossessions start to climb amid cost of living crisis: Properties taken back by banks rise 15% in three months as mortgage rates shoot up
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-11413579/House-repossessions-rise-15-three-months-amid-high-mortgage-rates.html

Following on from lenders forecasting 10-15% house price falls, RICS index turning negative and forecasting house price falls, repossessions are also rising, April 2022 onwards.

90% up from last year.
15% up on the quarter

Watch the demand decrease and supply increase

Mortgage repossessions up 90% as families warned of ‘ticking time bomb’
Rishi Sunak urged to act as landlord repossession claims also shoot up

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/mortgages-repossessions-landlord-evictions-rent-b2222207.html

Up 15% on the qtr:

House repossessions start to climb amid cost of living crisis: Properties taken back by banks rise 15% in three months as mortgage rates shoot up
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-11413579/House-repossessions-rise-15-three-months-amid-high-mortgage-rates.html

Following on from lenders forecasting 10-15% house price falls, RICS index turning negative and forecasting house price falls, repossessions are also rising, April 2022 onwards.

90% up from last year.
15% up on the quarter

Watch the demand decrease and supply increase

Mortgage repossessions up 90% as families warned of ‘ticking time bomb’
Rishi Sunak urged to act as landlord repossession claims also shoot up

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/mortgages-repossessions-landlord-evictions-rent-b2222207.html

Up 15% on the qtr:

House repossessions start to climb amid cost of living crisis: Properties taken back by banks rise 15% in three months as mortgage rates shoot up
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-11413579/House-repossessions-rise-15-three-months-amid-high-mortgage-rates.html

New record 7.1m waiting for operations in England.
Record numbers faced four-hour A&E waits in England in October

"A total of 7.1 million people were waiting to start treatment at the end of September, NHS England said.

That is up from seven million at the end of August and is the highest number since records began in August 2007."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-63583751

Following on from lenders forecasting 10-15% crash in house prices, RICS index now turned negative, from +30 in Sept to -2 in Oct.

That's as well as:
Lenders reporting drop in prices.
Lenders forecasting 10-15% crash in house prices for next year.

Asking prices significantly lower.
Mortgage approvals falling.
HBs stating slowing housing market, increase in cancellations, falling demand.

Demand falling, as expected

Best to trade hyped sectors
;-)

RICS, surveyors index has gone from +30 in Sept to -2 in for last month.

"The RICS UK Residential Market Survey showed that a net balance of -2% of respondents cited an increase in house prices in October 2022, turning negative for the first time since June 2020 as rising mortgage costs stoked caution among buyers."

"New buyer enquiries also fell for the sixth straight month in October, while survey feedback on buyer demand was negative across the UK."

RICS chief economist, Simon Rubinsohn said: “The latest feedback to the RICS survey provides further evidence of buyer caution in the face of the sharp rise in mortgage costs. As a result, the volume of activity is likely to slip back over the coming months and realistic pricing is now much more important to complete a sale."

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/rics-house-price-balance

"nothing has changed and unless inflation drops i and house prices stabilise "

More and more media reporting housing crash. The UK is only at the beginning of the downturn in house prices.
Lenders forecasting 10-15% crash next year.
Property experts forecasting falls in transactions, negative sentiment.

During GFC there was a 40% fall in prices, peak to trough, in some areas. I think the UK will see similar in some areas.

Vols down nearly 50%!! Demand falls off the cliff

Taylor Wimpey says sales dampened by economic storm

The FTSE 100-listed firm reported that the volume of house sales had reduced by nearly half in the second half of the year so far, compared with 2021.

https://www.independent.co.uk/business/taylor-wimpey-says-sales-dampened-by-economic-storm-b2221187.html

Paul
"Dividend has been stress tested down to 20% house price fall, 30% volume reduction."

Read the TU, vols are already falling and not far off the 30% volume reduction. Add in reduction from Help to Buy ending and I'd say dividends are already in danger of being axed.
They can easily drop the dividend and claim volumes and house price falls are going to exceed the stress test.
Lenders are already forecasting 10-15% drops in house prices for next year.

From their TU today:
"We achieved a net private sales rate of 0.74 homes per outlet per week for the year to date (2021: 0.95) and 0.51 homes per outlet per week in the second half of the year to date (2021: 0.91), reflecting customer response to heightened levels of economic uncertainty.

Demand has fallen sharply. Cancellations increased.

Help to buy scheme ended for new applications only a week ago, 31st October, so today's TU includes H2B. That scheme, as it's now closed, will mean fewer FTBs will be able to get on the property ladder.
HBs made millions from the H2B scheme.

Build cost is still around 9-10% and with property prices falling, margins will be squeezed, leading to lower profits in the future.

Housing market was already slowing down before the mini budget so the slowdown was already there.

The TU showed demand has fallen significantly:

"We achieved a net private sales rate of 0.74 homes per outlet per week for the year to date (2021: 0.95) and 0.51 homes per outlet per week in the second half of the year to date (2021: 0.91), reflecting customer response to heightened levels of economic uncertainty.

The cancellation rate for the second half of the year to date was 24% (2021: 14%), with a year to date cancellation rate of 18% (2021:14%).

As at 6 November 2022, our current total order book excluding joint ventures stood at c.GBP2.6 billion (2021: c.GBP2.8 billion) and our order book represented 9,153 homes as at 6 November 2022 (2021: 10,643) of which 79% is exchanged.

Customer visits to our website continue to be at good levels, albeit with conversions taking longer. Where customers have locked in mortgage rates, they remain keen to complete their purchase.

In the year to date, we have operated on an average of 229 sales outlets (2021: 224), and we are currently operating from 234 outlets (2021: 217) having opened 74 new outlets in the year (2021: 64 ).

Prevailing build cost inflation remains around 9-10%."

New PM, Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor.

Sunak said during PMQs that he is committed to reducing the elective surgery waiting lists and improving the NHS.

Given Jeremy Hunt was ex-Health Secretary and Sunak, as Chancellor, raised NI contributions only 6 months ago to help reduce operation waiting times, I think they will know the challenges facing the NHS and will therefore be determined to improve it as a priority.

LY provide insourcing in all 4 UK nations and Republic of Ireland.
As part of their diversified business model, they also provide NHS111, Walk in Centres to reduce GP waiting times.

Increasing recurring revenues £127m+++
Cash £15m
Pays dividend

Mcap £60m

dynaheir,
"It appears to me that the largest segment of liabilities comes from upfront payment of services not yet rendered and outstanding amounts on acquisitions ."

Nothing new. That has been their strategy since Bob Holt joined some 6yrs ago. They have continued their stated strategy.

Using that strategy they have significantly grown the business so now it is a diversified business model, covering Urgent Care, Planned Care, Insourcing, Organisation wellbeing and operating in all 4 UK nations plus Republic of Ireland and paying dividends.

Last 5 years:
period revenue, cash, adj Ebitda
2017 £21.3m, £11.3m, £5.6m
2018 £42m, £10.2m, £0.2m
2019 £78m, £7.5m, £1.1m
2020 £105m, £8.9m, £4m
2021 £113m, £14.8m, £5m
2022 £127.4m, £15.3m, £6.2m

Mcap £57m

Who's pulling the strings though.

It'll be a long time before there is any sort of evidence of change. The fy2022 results are likely to be published around June 2023 (if previous years are any guidance) and even it'll be early days of prove of any change.

Mo needs several quarters of his comments being backed up by events/contracts etc

MrLofer,

" I am an investor and see great value imo in byotrol. "

If you see great value, why no comment on the fy results from you or the 4 who voted you up?
It's been several weeks since they were published.

The newsflow here is as I was expecting.

As you can see from the trading update earlier this month the cash went up from 15.9 at the end of H1 to 20m by September 1st. Is that enough of a surge for you?

Cash as of fy2020 was £19.2m, cash as of H1 2022, 18months later, £20m:

Administrative costs pa take up a significant amount of that cash £20m. They need regular contracts to keep going. £80m 'booked' over 3 yrs is not significant.

Despite the fact last year that the cash should build up strongly by Dec 2021, which it didn't..

"The Group is very well capitalised and was strengthened through two placings in 2020 raising a combined total of £17.9m (before expenses) and strong working capital management through advanced cash payments on major agreements. As at 31 December 2020 cash and cash equivalents were £19.2m. Cash as of end May was £15.1m, reflecting the expected release of customer prepayments in H1 2021, which should build back strongly by year end as we close contracts for execution in 2022 "

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/open_orphan/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=2484&newsid=1484078