Member Info for strudel

@Bamps

"10 years of notes in a file, all went in the compost."

More instant gratification would have been achieved if you'd used it as kindling for the wood burning stove. Composting is slower payback.

I was in, in, out, in, out, out of BPC all before CERP. I just about broke even and like to think I could write another chapter in the "lessons learned" book.

I should perhaps read the bits of that book already written more often every time I eye up the buy button....

Cloudy.

So, as you were folks for another five days, before the next bout of blotch analysis.

"I never mention what my target price is cos it keeps growing but I will let you into a secret it’s higher than Mickey’s"

Wow!

Let me just go away and contemplate that phat bottom again.....

The observant will have noted the upgrade from "fat"....

Too be serious briefly......

It always struck me as odd that the first mention of Eastern Breccia involved the most colossal rectangular box being shown on the various views at depths. I couldn't quite understand why they made it so big from day one. The most recent update has it as more curvy and may be starting to show protrusions and forms within that original rectangle.

The recent renewed northern activity in the vicinity of the explosives store makes me think they are optimistically seeking the shallow parts that link down to this Eastern Breccia.

It may actually have a hunch back, fat bottom and bloated ankles ...... Just looking at it more....

And I like to think a fine crack running right through it......

HAV's got a fat bottom?

I'd be careful about how you present that view.

;-)

If you hold GGP shares then the only person who can decide if they want to sell them or not is you. No amount of share price movement is going to change my thinking from going back to first principals:

When I bought them, (less than 2p and above 30p, and most points in between!), I thought they would go up in value because of what I knew from RNSs. Since then there has been constant newsflow and drill results all provided in RNSs. Do I think I (a) need some cash, (b) can see better prospects elsewhere or (c) am terrified of some bad news wiping out GGP's value entirely.

My answers to date are no, no and no. A lot of PIs bought at prices well below today's price years ago and have sat patiently waiting. No reason to not wait a couple more years.....

It took me 30 years of investing to find GGP in the first place. I ain't going to let this one off the hook no matter how much it wriggles!

"The Greatcrest"

The design on the back would be a thin sliver taken out of a pie-like circle, with the wording 5% next to it. Yet it would obviously be a lot smaller than 5% of the pie, a nod to a "fraction of a fraction".....

Around the edge of the rim of the coin should be the word Karlajartu repeated.....

..... I too really really miss the radar.

There is some life in the ker-fut'd satellite, a few instruments can turn on, but not everything at once - or so they said on the 22nd April in an update.

The satellite doing the radar imagery a couple of hundred kilometres north of HAV is still churning out pictures. I was secretly hoping they could reprogram its orbit so we would get some coverage, although spreading the one satellite more thinly may mean updates once every twenty days..... Or less?

While there is still some life in the original satellite I guess they don't want to sacrifice anything by moving the remaining satellite(s) around, compromise their coverage frequency, but fill in our gap.

I'm consoling myself with the knowledge that we wouldn't see what's really happening soon enough when they start drilling underground, from the end of the completed decline and from the top of the ore body.

For lovers of knowledge and power I give you a special bit of outback Oz, crafted from the Sentinel Hub website, almost as cloud free as northern Scotland ( ....now how often do I get to say that?)

Today's image:

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=14&lat=-21.72057&lng=122.64965&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2022-06-04T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2022-06-04T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=2_FALSE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22

Everything looks like exciting drill activity on a small screen gadget but I think that is to do with my own sunstroke and too much daily brightness from the big yellow thing in the sky.

It might rain by Thursday by which time I will be recuperating at the end of the Scottish 2022 Summer and might dedicate some time to a compare / contrast to previous images.

@Bamps
"I am still trying to get my head around this so I don’t know how the rest of you are fairing"

I've gone for a walk up a mountain..... Clears the head wonderfully. I admit I started walking before you started writing your post. Will sit down and consider interpolation and MREs during the next rainy day (none are forecast for the foreseeable).

;-)

@Bamps
"I’ve been now to 6 shareholder gatherings, 2 at the Stag, London presentation, Swan Inn in Malvern, the first Stroud event and another I won’t disclose"

Did you send a body double to the Malvern Show to keep your missus happy and secretly sneak off to the Stirling meet without letting on?

Or "cloudy Sentinel image" today. 100% cloud cover..... must've snuck over from the east coast.

5 day wait before the next chance of a view of what's going on.... on the surface.

There will be all sorts of things going on in unseen places for sure.

@SaS (and Others)
"..... go and Yell off the cliff tops out to sea, in a force 10...."

If you're needing someone to perform this task I'm in the perfect northern location and not doing much else today, although to be fair it's probably only a Force 6....maybe force 7 during squally showers.

There have been lots of good posts making sensible points about the 5% sale. I was musing, pre-breakfast, that the dragging out of the process to agree its value probably suits Newcrest as much as it suits us - we are close to the six month anniversary of NC triggering the buyout clause. Both parties probably didn't expect to be here with no agreement yet....

Using numbers just for comparison, and not strictly related to anything specifically Havieron or gold....

NC said they wanted to buy an asset that the last formally recognised report said was the size of 3. The valuation they apply, because they are big company cautious / used to getting their way, makes it look like a 2.

GGP said "eh?" when they were offered that and legitimately did a fresh report for up to when NC said they were buying, using all the correct parameters, that formally said it is actually a 7. Even if NC still are cautious they would have to say to their shareholders we need to cough up 6 to buy this.

In the meantime drilling continues and the size and scale of HAV continues to expand. So NC are now likely to have to persuade their shareholders to be happy that the original concept of paying 2 to get hold of something that everyone was fairly certain was going to be a 10 is now pay 6 to get something that everyone is fairly certain is going to be a 15 (or more).... And as more drilling happens the true size becomes more and more known and the 15 climbs upwards.

It also crossed my mind that NC will get more and more nervous that the 5% deal hasn't been agreed the closer we get to December and the 12 month time period expiring. If NC hadn't shared their workings with GGP as to how they reached the figure "2", I think SD said that to the folks at the face-to-face meeting in London, then they are the ones faffing about and causing delay - the reluctance to share the calculations probably points to an embarrassment of how much they thought they could screw the price down cos GGP are the minnow, IMHO.

And just as I stopped musing I came across Bamps morning geology post:-
P-T .....pressure-temperature?
23 ....no idea
A flurry of acronyms describing types of gold finds !?!?

.....it drove me out to find breakfast.

I think a question has to be asked about any future swimming facilities at Lake Havieron, specially when it becomes 2,000m deep.

@Bamps
Cease and desist request.
Please stop drawing everyone's attention back to HAD0084. I was going to be buying a section of that for mounting in a display case above the mantelpiece. The crazy bidding will be around HAD005 so I was hoping to snaffle a 10ft section of 84 from under everyone's noses for a bargain price (postage not included).

@Hydrogen
I think I actually prefer that Zodiac zone of 0.5m.... if you are offering it to me now? Sounds like the ultimate in "jam today", if it is near the surface or there's a mine tunnel already at that level? Knowing what comes tomorrow or the day after would also be nice..... I do like to keep busy.... More ore for the mill..... Rather than retired and pootling around the golf course.

If I already had a processing plant whirring away in my back yard the 120m of 10g/tonne has a whiff of what the accountants dream of, good old "recurring revenue", keep shovelling and the cash will come.

As for valuations.... I read all the historic RNS detail and then apply the "MM/MF technique". MM?
Mickey's Multiple - if after all that reading I'm in a good mood multiple Mickey's £1.44 prediction by a small number.
MF - Mickey's Fraction - not so buoyant or confident? Divide Mickey's prediction by a small number.

And I'm praying for a takeover so Others have to do proper calculations and I never have to click the sell button.

Nope.....

The clue is in the percentage. Selling (or possibly not) a fraction of an asset for cash, I admit by far our best asset, is not earth shatteringly important (or traumatic) enough to warrant share suspension. GGP will still be around as pretty much the same entity before or after the 5% is sold. Today's share price is supposedly a reflection of the sum of the value across all our future activities, as judged by multiple investors, and everyone knows the 5% is being negotiated. The market has priced in a lump of money to account for the value of the 5% with a reduction for the length of time it has been taking to nail down, and another reduction for the risk that the 12 month clock ticks on with no agreement being reached.

Suspension of trading is only for transformational events such as takeovers (and then shares are usually left to rise on the open market to at or around the bid price); and disasters such as discovering a black hole in the accounts meaning the company is actually bankrupt - a la Patisserie Valerie; or badly over-valued - I think Tesco had overstated accounts a couple of years back.

Think of the 5% sale as being equivalent to landing a big lucrative contract. Suspending trading is not the way to make yourself popular with your backers in such circumstances.

A relatively cloud free image from Friday is at long last available from Sentinel.... So long as you don't want to scrutinize the decline and surroundings (too many clouds) this image will keep you happy.

With regards to new HAV activity the downside of drilling lengths of >1,800m and multiple wedges in different directions, is that once in position the rigs don't move much but are on the same spot for multiple weeks. So, as you were for all action on the south edge of HAV and south of the dune. More intriguingly in the north beyond the first dune, I think the more eastern of the two drill locations south-east of the explosives store may be active again.... There is a slight change of location of the white dot at this pad. Is this a new drill now angled towards the fault line, the scenario where Bamps mused out loud as to why drills had previously seemingly been angled west and drilling away from the fault .....?

Northern neighbours Artemis appear to have finished at the most easterly Apollo hole, where they broke the drill at the end of 2021. I'm working from too small a screen to spot where they may have moved their drill to. Be interesting to see if they had found a route through the dunes to actually reach Juno or Voyager, their other targets.

Whilst impatiently waiting for the image to be loaded on Saturday I went off to check on the Sentinel status page to see if they were reporting problems. Nothing mentioned for Sentinel 2 (daylight images) but there was an update from 22nd April for Sentinel 1 (radar image). It would appear there was some small and brief signs of life in the satellite whilst they were trying to resurrect the broken power supply by switching various heaters off or reducing their power levels before switching on individual instruments. My black mourning cardigan may have been hauled out of the wardrobe prematurely..... although I dare say we are still a long way from any new radar updates and I doubt there is an appetite just yet to reprogram the orbit of the remaining Sentinel 1 satellite(s) so that they cover our bit of Outback. Frustratingly the northern strip of Oz latitudes a couple of hundred kilometres north of HAV still has radar imagery updates.