Member Info for Straycat

I don't reckon anyone could have forecast the turbulence of the last three months.

The chronology looks like this:-

1) By end June 2022 GKP had paid out $190m in dividends;

2) In July GKP announced its intention to redeem the $100m debt which happened shortly after, leaving the Company debt free;

3) In its 2022 interims it announced another $25m dividend payment as well as increasing its capex guidance for the full year to $110m-$120m.

All this on the back of record receipts and record profits for the first half of 2022

These are not the actions of a Board that sees any prospect of the taps being turned off six months later with a prolonged

shut down since then.

Because if they'd had any indication of what was coming down the tracks they would have let the debt stand and reduce the dividend payments instead.

And if anyone else had seen it coming, the sp would have responded accordingly.

So I reckon asking that foresight from GKP (or anyone else working in the region) is a bridge too far.

However, the best managers react to changes in circumstances promptly and decisively; I think JH has done that.

GG,

As at 26/4 we had $99m in the bank.

We're also owed net $128m in delinquent debt from Oct 22 to Feb 23.

Reference your questions: and in sequence:-

1) Complicated question dependent on many unknown but interlinked variables. Including G&A expenses, ongoing maintenance capex need and Board decisions on deferrable salaries plus other deferable costs.

I reckon we've got the rest of the year. But if this impasse stretches on until the Autumn then it's time to look at other options including refinancing.

If JH is worth his salt (which I think he is btw) then he will have already begun this work.

And I don't think he'll have much trouble putting his back-stop in place given his investor base;

2) Nope. Different scenarios and circumstances. As a CEO you manage what's in front of you and, to me, they look like very different companies managing very different challenges.

Regards

SC

'Well informed people tell is is...I choose to believe them...

Paul1828 has been trying to infiltrate this bb for years under several different avatars, using several different tactics.

Long story.

But ever since 2018 when I bought in, I've seen him trying to work his acquisition spell in different guises on here. He comes out of ADVFN originally but no longer has any real traction there because he's lost all credibility.

But one thing is for sure, for one reason or another, he is a long term investor. I personally think he got caned in the 2016 Restructure.

Now he's spotted the change in this bb demographic and senses a new audience to sell his wares i.e. impending sale.

So he's back again. To ramp the share.

But once again, you should make your own mind up by DYOR and not taking short cuts.

Unfortunately the Newbies are looking for comfort and I get that. But it's not going to help you here.

And looking to PUTUP and his acolytes for comfort is not going to help. They have a very different agenda.

It's a VERY complicated share and requires serious and continuing research before investment and after.

For the record, I've just gone back in, but because I believe in the self-funding plan and the ridiculous current market valuations. So in that sense Paul1828 and I agree. But our motives are very different.

I've bought back in not because I think it's going to be bought out.

But because I believe in the future of this business as long as it can flex to these current problems...one thing's for sure; GKP won't run out of cash.

Whether it's a new credit facility (on terms) or even a Rights Issue.

Better still we collect delinquent debt and resume regular payments.

Hmm...we'll see.

Because the oil will flow again, sooner or later.

PUTUP has no skin in this game at all. He's a paid bb influencer. Paid by who though?

Armas

The oil will flow again...It's the damage that needs to be assessed, most of all of it already priced in.

1) Recoverable delinquent cash flow?;

2) Production resets costs and timing?;

3) Reliable and continuous self funding (remember this was the initial proposition for the build to 110k bopd)?;

4) Board unity. Soden's gone, so who do Lansdowne put in his place to protect their (our) interests?

And a load of other stuff that this bb is incapable of dealing with.

Because it's strategic, not purely tactical and based on the current share price. New (short term) team new dream/nightmare.

This a tough share and that will not change.

C*ckeye...I'm still in.

Why would anyone give PUTUP and his acolytes any oxygen?
His revisionist view of GKP's world has now come collapsing around him as his own analysis confuses even himself!!!
What a w**nker.
Let's face it; whatever currency we're paid in, the answer is simply about volume output.
And that depends on the field production capacity and the Board's ability to finance it by regular payments.
Because this is a self -funding finance model.
PUTUP is a diversionary irrelevance.
And his mates.
Promised myself I wouldn't re-engage, but couldn't help myself.

I'll ignore the insult.
I don't trust your motives.
Not now, though I've had my doubts for some time.
You're obviously not going to engage on the matter of your efficacy on this bb.
Nor your support base back-up.
And that's your right.
But I do worry about the effect of your posts on the newer PIs here.
That's not my problem though.
It's for others to decide.

That’s patently b*ll*cks.
'PUTUP there's an oil processing plant for sale in Alibaba, very reasonably priced too. I'll pm you details before switching avatars again.'
That was dated 10/3/22.
From Klassic to you.
‘I’ll pm you details before I switch avatars again.’
Want to explain that? Why would K have to 'switch avatars again?
And there’s so much more. Don’t make me dig it up even though it’d take a matter of minutes.
What’s your brief on this site?
More importantly, who’s briefing you?
Btw, ‘Huh’ isn’t an expression in UK common parlance. It’s an Americanism.
You really are letting your guard down aren’t you P?
And a piece of advice, you really need to get your troops in line; rogue activity isn’t going to help your cause in this case.

Monkeys and Organ grinders springs to mind. However, I digress.
Just tell your Boss I'm waiting for his finely tuned and well prepared response...it should be a great read!!!
You lot need to justify your raison d'etre.

Just tell your Boss PUTUP that I'm here, waiting for an explanation.
Because we all deserve one.

This is amazing!
mMAX1 (with only thirty eight posts to his credit) also has a relationship with PUTUP and Theoryman going back to early 2021...just check his posting history.
His last GKP offering was on 3/10/2022.
Yet here he is almost immediately as PUTUP back-up support.
After four months in absentia.
Is this your melt down as a team?
Where's your Boss, PUTUP?
Where are you P?
F**king nowhere, that's where.
You couldn't write this, and I'm a writer!!!
Excellent.

Think I may have pressed a button...it's all coming out now!!!
Brilliant.
Little inadvertent transparency spilling out onto the bb.
Good stuff. Only taken two years to reveal it.

I'm concerned.
Just click on Klassic's messaging history. It's not hard to see what's going on:-
'PUTUP there's an oil processing plant for sale in Alibaba, very reasonably priced too. I'll pm you details before switching avatars again.'
That was dated 10/3/22. It's on his posting history. So there's clearly a relationship between PUTUP and Klassic.
Going back a year.
You think there may be a relationship between those two avatars to try and seriously influence this bb?
If you've got the time, read Klassic's other interventions with PUTUP in the last twelve months about GKP.

This is definitely not my bag.
I'm just flagging it to the other bb contributors...because imo PUTUP has been put up onto this bb to influence bb opinion.
Nothing is ever as it seems...
For the record, I'm clean.
Just a private investor trying to develop my position in GKP by better understanding what the hell is going on.

With the KRG proposing that they unilaterally change the benchmark for payments is clearly a big issue.
It creates an new uncertainty that doesn't currently exist.
It's also looking like they're trying to unilaterally move the payment terms to four months.
JH needs to step up right now and express an opinion.
Because it potentially affects FDP investment potential AND shareholder returns.
Any serious CEO would deal with this. Simply because of his fundamental duties and responsibilities to protect the best interests of his shareholders.
I maintain my belief in his abilities. But he must provide more detail. And what his position is.

However, as C0ckeye suggests, there may be other reasons for his reticence...

Never been an easy ride with GKP...

Funny.
No wiser, but funny.
Regards
SC

Hi TM,
So putting aside all that theorising B**locks, what's your opinion?
Benchmark Brent Crude, or or another calibration?
And I don't care which it is. Unless it means we receive less cash for the product.

HNY btw, (get me and acronyms!!!)

Hi TM,
You too.
SC.

Hi TM,
And a Merry Christmas/Happy New Year.
Not a clue what you just wrote in the context of my post...can you help me?

How naive..
That’s not right on any level.
Because Lansdowne now have their own appointee on the Main Board as a Non Independent.
And his only job is to scrutinise Board decisions on behalf of Lansdowne.
As a consequence we have an insight into Boardroom behaviour and how it affects the major shareholder’s opinion.
Capex is not a ‘continuous process’ without shareholder consent.
And we’re talking about the concerns of THE MAJOR SHAREHOLDER!!!
This is not a theoretical…it’s real.
I want to know how and why the Company are spending the cash. Don’t you?
Clearly Lansdowne do…hence the departure of the Chairman.

So how bad is the feud between Lansdowne and the Board of GKP?

Anyone bothered with the footnote to the latest OpUp?
Just give it the time for a read.
After all, this is a serious issue in terms of your investment in this Company and its relationship with its major shareholder:-
'At the Company's Annual General Meeting ("AGM") held on 24 June 2022, all resolutions were successfully passed. However, resolutions 2 and 7, being the re-election of the Company's Chairman and Chief Financial Officer, failed to attain the support of 80% of the shareholders who voted. Voting turnout continued to be low relative to prior years, with approximately 52% of the total shareholder register voting. The Company continues to look at ways to increase voting turnout at future general meetings.

Substantially all the votes against resolutions 2 and 7 were from a single major shareholder, who voted against the re-election of the same Directors at the 2021 AGM. The Company also notes that the proxy agencies Glass Lewis and ISS were in favour of all resolutions, including resolutions 2 and 7. In accordance with Provision 4 of the 2018 UK Corporate Governance Code, the Board has consulted with the single shareholder, and, as part of this exercise, also consulted with the Company's other major shareholders. Feedback received from the single shareholder encompassed issues principally related to the Company's operational progress, organisational structure and capital allocation.

The Board has carefully considered all feedback and has addressed issues, to the extent possible or necessary. The independent members of the Board continue to hold every confidence in both the Chairman and Chief Financial Officer, recognising the value and contribution each bring to the Company.

The Company will continue to engage with the major shareholder in question and welcomes ongoing engagement and feedback from all shareholders.'

To summarise, Lansdowne have no faith in the ‘operational progress, organisational structure and capital allocation’.
That’s Corporate speak for “where the hell is the oil that you promised us? Why is Jaap Huijskes still running the show? And what are we spending our money on?”
So, in that Boardroom, Garret Soden (Non-Independent Director representing Lansdownes interests, and the only way Jaap kept his job) is asking for operational progress that he can report back to his own Lansdowne Board.

And getting nothing of any substance.

As a Lancastrian, I suspect Trouble at Mill!!

All imo/dyor…

Hey P,
I'm no expert on gas re-injections, their costs in these Field circumstances, nor their consequential impact on future production.
But I always understood that these gas-flaring issues were a de-bar to the next development phase...certainly they didn't stop approvals to 55k bopd.
But we're not there, are we?
So I can't express a view, though I'm guessing there are several other bb contributors who can.
But I DO recognise Corporate speak when I read it, because I'm guilty of doing it myself.
The facts speak for themselves.
GKP estimated an $80m capex for 2022 that would take them to the brink of 55k bopd and further.
Less than six months later that capex figure had risen to $120m for the year with no real explanation as to why.
And no predictions as to where that increased investment might lead, certainly not with any conviction.
Then we have a recognition in the latest RNS that 2022 production estimates are 'at the lower end of expectations'. Despite that 50% increase in capex during the year.
Read the RNSs.
In detail.
Corporate Speak. Obfuscation.
And we still don't know what's happening in the field.
More importantly, we have no digestible, sensible information about natural problems in Field development which the Board are having to deal with.
For any Newbies to the site, I am a significant investor in this Company and a great supporter of its ambition to grow on the back of self-funded investment.
However, obfuscation right now (or at any time, particularly in the case of GKP, given it's troubled history) is unnecessary, unwanted and develops an atmosphere of distrust in the motives of the Board...vis Jaap.

You know where I sit on this whole issue P.
I just want a little more clarity. Unfortunately, that's not going to happen imo.