Member Info for stillinthegame

Quite agree, Ollieh - and in most respects it was ever thus, of course....

But rather an extreme negative reaction to what was essentially a host of remarkably positive news - and thanks for the links there

However, November is still a good way off - so there's also room for plenty more volatility / rumour / speculation before then, as we've already seen...

My main concern TBH is that potential big pharma buyers will obviously want to pick this up as cheaply as possible, and they have plenty of tactics (and resources, and influence) at their disposal to try and achieve that.....

But yes, fingers crossed....

Quite agree. Today alone the SP drops by yet *another* 3.78% .

Makes one wonder just how much more destruction of captial value is needed for the big shareholders to overcome their dislike of paying tax on their dividends?

Or is it that the real insiders actuallty want the fear and the freefall to keep going until the 23rd, so they can buy whatever shares they don't already own for a pittance, and move towards taking the whole company private?

Haven't checked the shorters lately - but hope they get seriously burned by early announcment of a healthy ongoing dividend - if not a special on top - followed by a solid set of results on the 23rd.

Meanwhile, I just had to buy some more today myself with divs from elsewhere!

Re ASCO, and buyout possibilities - quite right that Merck won't be wanting independent competition for Keytruda, but aren't GSK already signed up as a partner for trials?

Think any results from that collaboration are still some way off - but a bidding war would certainly give this a good lift...

I'm sure you're right - but at what point does the ridiculously low SP start turning around - as any such tax benefits look rather meaningless in the face of a company valuation that's less than half of what it was a year ago, despite the underlying business still performing so strongly.

Does anyone know when the company might actually deign to announce exactly WHAT balance of Dividend vs Buyback (let alone Special Dividends) they will be making in July?

As that might perhaps help stem the endless SP bleed-out - and July is not far off now.....

Agree with you, Broomtree - while also acknowledging JC01 does also make valid points...

Would be nice if we *might* still see some/any share price climb twoards XD day (not just the fall afterwards)....

IMHO, the Hormuz fiasco really should have given this rather more lift long since - and still could..... were it not for the ever-increasing debt issue....

Meanwhile, just trading this does seem the only way longer-term holders might hope to get even in their lifetimes - as Terry has long emphasised.....

TheLoaf - re your comment back in early Feb :

"I used to wait for TEP to drop to around 1000p & sell out at around 1400p (those days are gone)."

Seems not..! (What goes around comes around.....)

Notable too that although the (first) big drop from December was atttributed to possible talks re bidding for Ovo Energy's retail customers, that's now off the table, but not even the slightest rebound here yet. No logic to any of it.

Some clearer comms from the Board would help - but major shareholders are clearly their priority, as others have flagged....

In any case - with next div due in July, we'll see if it's nearer the top, rather than bottom, of your old trading range by then...!

GLA

Thanks for summarising the situation so well, flackio. Ridiculous is an understatement.... and re "this is some of the worst (inexplicable) action I've seen in my 20 years in the market". Yep, my experience too.

Like another recent poster, I first invested here when CW took over (long ago now, at around 200-350). And kept it up when he took (mega-) profits at 2400, I followed suit - albeit on my VERY much smaller scale than his.

But what's interesting is that he then chose to go back in again at around 1800.... and while no one ever has a crystal ball, he would have know a LOT more than most about the boring, near-invisible TEP / UW business model and outlook then...

So - who knows whether the collapse over the last 12m, let alone the latest freefall, is down to bot-trader algorithms, shorters, panicking pension-fund holders fearing for their (as yet unspecified) loss of divis.... and/or the rumoured bid for OE....

Like you, I've rarely if ever seen a stronger buy..... BUT - only for those who can afford to wait.... and have funds they could afford to lose should we both be wrong (and we've certainly been outnumbered lately!)

Mmmmm - might have hoped so - but instead, US price plummets to join lacklustre UK one.....

Nothing rational about DEC's share price - rather, the only predictable thing about it is its volatility

So as Terry has always said - trading it is probably the only thing that makes sense ...

GLA....

Agree that a good increase is certain IF the FDA gives approval in Nov - but suspect the reaction then might be more sudden than steady

In the meanwhile, 2 theories on yesterday's nice spike seem to be

(1) shorts getting squeezed and panicking, as

(2) others are buying in anticipation of positive Q2 trial results.....

https://www.tipranks.com/news/catalyst/why-summit-therapeutics-stock-is-suddenly-surging

Nice timing. Sounds like you know this company's track record - and actual business - which most people don't....

Hence the rather overboard overselling (IMHO) in recent months following reports of a possible bid for OVO's retail customers

I just wish the supposed regulators would announce a very firm - and suitably short - time limit on when OVO really do need to put up (captital) or shut up (shop)....

Probably a tight ship - but as ever, plenty of room for speculation.... inc the extremely disparate 'estimates' here re whether current price is a massive over, or undervaluation..... take your pick!

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech/nasdaq-smmt/summit-therapeutics/news/assessing-summit-therapeutics-smmt-valuation-after-fda-accep

Re "DEC is on the market cap threshold ($1,2B) where certain tracker funds would start buying shares for inclusion in the index (e.g. S&P 600)."

As this was one of the supposedly good reasons for moving the main listing to the US.... (ahem)

Can anyone do the calcs to work out what price this needs to climb back up to for inclusion in whatever index might trigger some compulsory purchases from others?

(Would be good if something could replace the apparent lack of any more BBs - even at such bargain basement prices...)

Expecting BLA approval without it being requested would be overly hopeful...!

But IF granted this would be v good news indeed...

- and yes, US GSK trial will obv take much longer - but might just act as a sweetener there.....

Yes... looks VERY oversold... and very much at odds with any broker forecasts I'm aware of..

Does anyone here know the likely timescale in which any negotiations re OVO might get concluded (one way or another...)?

Yes... rather a pessimistic response to 2 such forward-looking announcements

But as you say, onwards - and hopefully upwards at some point....