Member Info for SteveV

We have become weary and some would prefer a straight buyout now. BUT this would surely be a low offer. As I think would also be a JV offer for a very large chunk of the field based on Oip.

I would be very happy with a preliminary very modest JV just to drill the first set of wells. e.g. JV pay for it for a share of profit from those wells. THEN we know how the wells flow and can book P2 reserves. That would then be the time for a substantial JV, or buyout. IMO.

I think the gist of it is is that they are learning a lot about the field as they go along.

Sounds like they have over stimulated some areas(pressure issues) AND under stimulated other areas "..the reservoir volume of the Shannon appears to be underestimated.." (i.e more oil down there than they thought)

The waxing problem is in addition which they are unsure of the cause... BUT have a solution...great

So they are finessing their approach as understanding emerges.

And a nice little bonus..."....We are very excited about the Frontier 1 recompletions at Cole Creek...."
Again, more oil than they previously thought !

I think for for a small business COPL have more oil than they can handle right now. What we really need is someone who realises the huge potential, with deep pockets, to really kick start things off big time...Oh yeah, JV anyone?

In the 4th Oct presentation Art said that production wasn't stable. "It's bouncing around" he said. But they are working on it.
The fact that the Sept figures are flat was not unexpected, but we can expect a steady rise from here. There is not much more to say really.

Thing is, it's the bonds holding back the sp. Love to pay them back early.

Bloomberg:
"...President Joe Biden said he'd seek to impose higher taxes on oil companies that record “windfall” profits without reinvesting in production.."

Good timing for COPL. Big investment in the Fed deep by our JV ??

The bond holders and traders and mm's seem happy enough to keep the sp in the 15-16.5p range at the moment.

That won't last indefinitely.

I would say the update is telling us everything is positive and going in the right direction but not quite as quickly as some might hope. Not long now. Bit more patience needed.

Be interesting to see how the market reacts at 8am to an official RNS mentioning the JV. If they are doing due diligence then I would expect COPL and the JV have already discussed and agreed in principle the terms of the JV. (how much of the field, for what price)

Art never said the RBL and JV WOULD definitely be arranged by the end of the month(Oct). He said he would LIKE both done this month. (Oct)...bit more patience needed

Hey Jndavid, yes but Premier was buying P2 reserves and production.

"...Premier said it is paying approximately US$8.50 per barrel of oil, and will gain approximately 13,700 barrels of oil equivalent per day (‘boepd’) of working interest production in 2009 and 2P reserves and contingent resources of 60 million barrels of oil equivalent...."

That gets back to my point we need p2 reserves and production out of the Fed deep to get anything like $8.
Possible in time but not for Oip. I think that's why Art was previously not keen on a JV because you don't get full value on a virgin field. Hopefully we will find out soon enough what they are offering.

Ajep, some optimistic assumptions there.

You think someone will fork out $8 per barrel for oil in place.

I would imagine the whole field would have to be delineated and some oil coming out of the ground to get that.

COPL paid $2 per barrel for CUDA's P2 reserves, albeit a distressed sale.

Interesting read on Continental. Going for growth by the looks.
https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/continental-off-the-shelf-with-permian-basin-purchase-from-pioneer/

I think it IS the likes of Continental who are keen to grow their business as opposed to the super majors who seem
much more interested in returning cash to shareholders and buying back shares right now, that will be interested in COPL.

Yes the bonds were essential to get CUDA which substantially increased our NPV.

BUT also, and not priced in it increased our share of the Fed deep from 58% to 85%. That is 27% of all those lovely barrels Oip. At LEAST a billion confirmed by World renowned 3rd party experts Ryder Scott.

The drilling of the first 2 wells in the Fed deep is pivotal for me.
How much oil comes out of the ground may well define our future success.

I would be more than happy for a JV for that. We don't know anything as yet as to what COPL or the
JV have in mind regarding the scope and extent of any arrangement but it would be a no brainer to at least start
with the first 2 wells.

It will all be academic if Art pulls of a juicy JV and announces an ambitious drilling program including secondary recovery for the Fed deep (1 billion barrels )

Comeonvog, if the bond holders convert AND sell too many shares they make less profit because they depress the share price.
If the share price stayed at 16.75p and they convert then sell they are making the same profit as simply waiting for the bonds to mature.
However, if they are effectively holding the price at around 16.75 then they can't take advantage of the warrants.

We all benefit if the SP shoots up way over 16.75 but unlike us the money men still come out in profit at anything over 13p

"..The Bonds were bought at 78% of the conversion price = 13p...".

Yep, the bonds were for $25.2 and COPL netted $19.7m to buy CUDA
78% of 25.2 = 19.656.

So yes the bond holders could sell the converted shares down to 13p and still make a profit.
BUT of course any less than 16.75p and they will be making LESS money than simply waiting for the bonds to mature and collect the full amount.(principal and interest). They will no doubt be hedging their positions so come out in profit regardless of what happens. Who knows exactly how many bonds they choose to convert.

So looking at the conversion history:

To buy Cuda we borrowed $25.2m
$12.6m 2024 bonds and $12.6m 2025 bonds

Looking at the bond conversion RNS's since then we have converted
$600,000 2024 bonds and$3m 2025 bonds.

So we have reduced the debt from $25.2 to currently $21.6m

Pattern forming? they have issued 2m shares converted from the bonds end of the month for the last 3 months.
Is this likely to continue till there are no bonds left ?

COPL need to get the oil out of the ground. JV...please