Member Info for SteveV

Thanks Livelong, very useful information.

So are we saying Anavio are our cornerstone investor. They bought 100 bonds at $16,800,000

There are currently 101 bonds remaining. So assuming Anavio haven't/aren't selling everyone else has been, and are more or less out. (1 bond remaining)
So we can expect no more conversions(for the time being) !?

OK, well let's assume our cornerstone investor is not converting their bonds.

BUT does anyone know what percentage of the bonds they hold?
"....The Convertible is anchored by a long term, UK based institutional shareholder (the "Lead Investor") and other institutional investors (all investors collectively, "Bondholders")...."

So the "others" have been converting.

BUT how many does the "cornerstone" investor hold? anyone got figures?

No one said ALL the bondholders have been converting OR they will convert ALL bonds.

But from the principle amount of $25m that figure is now $20m. So $5m worth have been converted.

I suspect we will get an RNS before the end of the month that a few more have been converted(given the current SP)

I think the sp is following the usual trend. The bondholders are happy to sell down to a little above 13p. They have still made a profit. Then they pause selling. Retail investors continue buying and the price recovers to 16p+ ish. Then repeat.!

No doubt that will continue until the big news breaks.

If we didn't have the bonds, like a millstone around our neck, the sp would be doing lot better.

BUT, the bonds paid for CUDA. CUDA created more P2 reserves, AND added 27% more fed deep ownership. AND allowed free title to allow RBL. If we didn't have CUDA the RBL was a non starter.

The bondholders are not LTH investors, they are money men and have no doubt been hedging their loan by selling down their exposure. They still make money down to 13p and still retain their remaining bonds and warrants.

Frustrating for LTH, but that is the way it is. News will come soon, and I think it will be good. I am expecting a swift rise to over 50p in the next month or two if everything planned comes to fruition.

Well it IS approaching crunch time.
Either,
We don't get the RBL by Xmas, the bonds revert to 13.25p, and TW prediction of 10p by Xmas may come true.

Or maybe we get the RBL, get a JV, production starts to increase(5000bopd by Feb?), we pay off the other outstanding debts including the £11m hedge, and everything is rosy...sp rockets.

Maybe this is why the SP is where it's at. Nobody really knows how this will play out....But we may know soon.

Earl, that is proven reserves (P2) not Oil in place (Oip.)
We don't have 1 billion P2

I am very much in favour of a JV.

I suspect COPL are struggling a bit to get a very good deal for the RBL with interest rates currently being so volatile.

But mainly, and even though we may or may not get a mega JV deal, any deal, especially if was with someone like Exxon, would totally validate the asset and send a very strong message to the market.

It could happen.
5000bopd by Feb.
Debt sorted
JV with major
What price sp then?

Earl, Elon Musk also said we need to keep going with nuclear plants. Is he going to buy a few nuclear power stations as well?
He bought into crypto currencies because he was accepting them as payment for Tesla products.

Total non starter. It would be a PR disaster for Tesla if Musk went any where near oil. Customers would be cancelling their orders in droves.

I would think $8-12 per barrel would be for P2 reserves.
I guess the question then is when does the 1billion+ fed deep go from Oip to P2 reserves.

It may boil down to whether the JV wants to test the water with some preliminary extraction before piling in with a major stake or full buyout.

Yep that is a good point. SP would probably be higher with a bridge loan than bonds.
But who knows. Maybe a bridge loan may have become very onerous as has turned out the RBL is dragging on MUCH longer than anticipated due to volitility in interest rates and loans market.

Iron, sure that's true. Cuda cost us whatever the ultimate cost of the bonds will be, $25m plus whatever interest.

Are you saying we shouldn't have bought Cuda with bond money.

Still seems like a bargain to me.

CUDA, yes for $19m we:

"Increased COPL's 2P reserves by 47% from 25.8 million (COPL December 31, 2021 NI-51-101 Reserves) to 38.2 million barrels..."

We got 2P reserves for $2 per barrel

AND an extra 27% slice of the Fed deep (independently confirmed at least 1 billion OIp)
That is a minimum of 270 million barrels of Oip.

And now we got major oil companies knocking on our door. Wonder why!?

Jeb, I think in the last few years oil majors were divesting assets and more interested in returning cash to investors(dividends and share buybacks). And don't forget oil prices were much lower 2 years ago(went negative for a short while!!)
So they had little appetite for capex on new fields. But times have changed. Oil prices are high and set to stay. Energy security is high on the agenda, and lack of investment recently has caused dwindling reserves and supply issues.
Even Biden is now telling oilers to invest more in production!!!

So I think we will see US producers upping investments in 2023. But they will be cautious. Not so much long term capital intensive projects like off shore. They will want easy to get to, easy to get the oil out, relatively short term projects.

Add to that the prospect for companies like Exxon who are investing heavily in carbon capture, And using the CO2 for Enhanced oil recovery, then assets COPL now have become very attractive. We got Atomic and CUDA cheap and stumbled onto the motherload of the Fed deep.(at least a billion barrels) No wonder the big boys have come knocking.

Once we get the loans and debts sorted and hopefully a JV COPL should start to thrive. Who knows when production starts ramping up COPL might indulge in divdends and share buy backs themselves. Now that would be a welcome turnaround.!

I think JV with you know who might do it.!

HH, the RBL needs to sorted by 25th December. If not the 16.75 bonds revert to 13.25p. Then the bond holders will be selling down to 11p-12p potentially.

They over stimulated some wells and under stimulate others, and didn't expect to get so much waxing.

They are gaining understanding of the field and we can expect progress moving forward.

Also 6 bonus "easy" wells coming up to produce potentially 2400bopd....great!

AND........The Fed DEEP, early next year, maybe with a JV...Maybe with you know who!!