Member Info for SteveV

I am hoping for 1500bopd in August just because all the GGS upgrade disruption has stopped.

The re pressurising of the field takes time. I am hoping for:

Sept 1800 bopd

Oct 2000 bopd

Nov 2200 bopd

Dec 2500 bopd

JV announced late in the year. Bonds paid off shortly after. Oil price buoyant, no hedge.

This time next year Rodney.....!!

I don't think ANY warrants have been exercised or sold.

I do think some bondholders have been selling down from 4p. Remember they were getting a discount price to that so making money down to 3.2p, but even easier money to then short from 4p. Then flood the market by selling all their shares down to their shorting price. Self fulfilling trade. Can't lose.

I do think Arthur and Ryan were totally financially naive thinking the bonds were a great deal. Destroyed shareholder value and cause gigantic dilution more like.

No wonder he is no longer in charge.

Yes , exactly Shouston.

The timing is starting to work in our favour. Production up, oil price buoyant, unhedged...

AND, that creates a MUCH stronger negotiating position to get a good deal from the JV.

Remember Denbury rejected several offers from Exxon before that deal finally went through.

Actually I meant Aug 2021

http://pipeline.wyo.gov/AllOpcoProd.cfm?oops=ID48157&RequestTimeOut=65000&nOpco=1769

The highest monthly figure we achieved was in Aug 2022 at 62415.

Should be able to get back to that in the next few months.

For those that don't know Denbury are market leaders in Enhanced oil recovery(EOR), Carbon capture(CC), and CO2 pipeline distribution across the USA.

Exxon are pursuing this bigtime. This is the playing field we are playing on........Bit more patience it will all come good!

Hey tsbs1, unfortunately secrecy seems to be how big companies work.

I repeat my post from the weekend for anyone who missed it:

Some are bemoaning the fact that it is a year since the JV approached COPL.

Things take a while. Big players play hard ball, but eventually get what they want.

"....Denbury Inc. held talks with more than two dozen potential buyers and rejected two offers from Exxon Mobil Corp. before finally agreeing to sell itself to the Texas oil giant for $4.9 billion in stock last month.

Executives and their advisers spoke with more than 28 parties, from international oil majors to pipeline operators, signing confidentiality agreements with 17 of them over a two-and-a-half year period..."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-29/denbury-held-talks-with-28-potential-buyers-prior-to-exxon-deal?leadSource=uverify%20wall#xj4y7vzkg

Hey zeros, even better then, no tax to pay for a while !

BUT just to get the ball rolling, lets say at 3000bopd and oil at $80 revenue of $87m.....We make $43m(ish) Pre tax (I am guessing here and am happy to be corrected)

So that is ..very roughly $43 Pretax profit. x 10 (as per Exxon ) =$430m

Possibly 800m share in issue by then gives an SP of 53.75p

Yes terrible board this afternoon. Can we stick to COPL?

Here is a hypothetical question. We know oil price will be buoyant for the foreseeable.....Great.

Let's suppose COPL with the upgrades can get to 3000 bopd next year.

With WTI at $80 that would be revenue of of $87m per year.

And it seems most if not all will be unhedged

Anyone have an idea what our Pre-tax profit would be on that revenue?

I notice that someone like Exxon are currently trading at 10 x Pre-tax profits.

Yes, WTI trading at $89.39

But what is even better Oil futures are all well over $80 for at least another year !!

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html#venue=globex

COPL's Increased production, unhedged, ALL well over $80 for next year will be transformational.

He is there to steady the ship until(if) the JV goes through...then all hell will break loose

I think anything around the 3.2p mark and you are aligned with the bondholders.

I had a little top up at 3.16p. If you can beat them join them !!

I do recall Arthur telling us when the first round of bonds came in at around 16p what a great deal it was. !!

Well he has paid the price now and we move on.

We await August production figures. They will still be modest. I am hoping for 1500bopd. Just a little tick up after the disruption incurred with all the GGS work. But I am very optimistic we will see 2500bopd by Xmas once the re pressurising happening now has it's affect.

I'm not even sure if the RBL is required anymore.

IF we get to cashflow positive by year end, AND get the JV over the line. Do we need it.?

Our current senior lender seems to have softened their position somewhat recently and would appear to be considerably more supportive. I wouldn't be surprised if they are happy to carry on lending and possibly? increase their lending facility to us.

Hey Cavity, maybe that is one of the reasons that he is no longer our CEO !

The JV approached COPL specifically for the EOR potential.

CC would naturally be an added bonus but, therefore, not the driving factor.

Some are bemoaning the fact that it is a year since the JV approached COPL.

Things take a while. Big players play hard ball, but eventually get what they want.

"....Denbury Inc. held talks with more than two dozen potential buyers and rejected two offers from Exxon Mobil Corp. before finally agreeing to sell itself to the Texas oil giant for $4.9 billion in stock last month.

Executives and their advisers spoke with more than 28 parties, from international oil majors to pipeline operators, signing confidentiality agreements with 17 of them over a two-and-a-half year period..."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-29/denbury-held-talks-with-28-potential-buyers-prior-to-exxon-deal?leadSource=uverify%20wall#xj4y7vzkg

Well the last RNS does suggest that COPL are looking for a substantial cash injection from the JV as part of the deal.

Anavio have agreed to allow us to buy back the bonds IF the JV is agreed.

"...Anavio and the Company have agreed to discuss a possible reduction of the quantum of payment of any "Make Whole Amount" under the terms and conditions of each of its 2027 Bonds and 2028 Bonds (each as defined below), provided a satisfactory Joint Venture is entered into by the Company, hence reducing potential dilution...."

So if production increase goes to plan, we become cash positive by Xmas. The JV is signed sometime soon and includes a cash element, we buy back the bonds. Going into the new year we would be in a VERY strong position.

If the JV is someone a huge as Exxon then things will be moving at a pace dictated by them for whatever reason they see fit and I don't think we can influence that much. EOR is an expanding sector (expected to compound annually at 8%) and carbon capture really is still in it's infancy.

It was only in July that Exxon bought Denbury as part of their plan. And COPL announced the letter of intent 10 days after that news broke.

COPL need to get to the end of the year which we are now funded for at which point I am very confident we will be cashflow positive. They are starting to pressurise the field now. Production volume is only going to go up. And WTI crude is currently at $86.86 !

Don't think RBL is on the agenda anymore. Why not? I Don't think we need it!

1 Our current senior lender seems a lot more relaxed with current arrangements.

2 With the cost savings, unwinding of the hedge, increased production, price of oil, we will be comfortably cash flow positive in the next few months.

3 We are going to sign a JV with someone soon. They will pay for the development of Cole Creek.

Seems like the JV and COPL are simply negotiating the price now.

"...if the interest being shown by certain third parties in joint venturing with us matches our own views on value, we will seek to further scale through partnership....."

As is often the case the JV probably playing hardball. Maybe they hoped to get in cheap with COPL teetering on the brink.

Well not now . We are NOT teetering ! Got to make a decent offer if they want in.