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Good analysis SIH
The issue is the Hr market has no faith in thg, and actually sees moulding as a pathological liar
Not sure there has been a ceo as cancerous as him in a long while. Put simply he must go
Then thg must deliver or over deliver on forecasts / guidance, sell all non core vanity esp hotels/ spas, pay down debt as it is too expensive now vs their earnings with higher interest rates and make a clear decision on what to do with ingenuity
Nutrition is incredible business and clearly worth up to x2 the market cap of thg today
Beauty is decent business but needs to focus more on driving profit
Pearls - the whales are enterprise customers that use ingenuity to sell products ie generate GMV
ARM is a great partnership that may allow whales to be hooked but in itself it doesn’t generate GMV clearly
Agreed nutrition is a gem, but price protection was too much. First ingenuity commerce growth was meant to pay for it…its didn’t. Then selling the freehold…it got moved into 2023, so in the end ebitda literally just dropped by circa 40-50m (130 to 70m)
Also, 5.5% included adjusted of circa 60m (Thg guidance), strip that out and ebitda is circa 10m or less than 1%
It’s worrying
Revnue Growth mainly driven by cost price increases - shows the folly of moulding strategy to do ‘price protection’ in nutrition
Literally peed away circa 50m of cash
Yeah my thoughts too pearls - that’s him putting himself ahead of what’s good for share holders, as usual. Which is why governace is so important and why thg still needs improvement there
Come sept, the GS is 100% gone. I believe gallemore and McDonald will be off the board and I believe 2-3 new NED will be on the board
Then the only issue is moulding as landlord of thg which ain’t ideal but at least the contracts are locked for a specific time period
Then it’s up to thg to actually grow ebitda and deliver sting cash flows
Pencil - not wanting to labour the point but sofina and balderton aren’t supportive anymore
When moulding and QIA got SoftBank shares at 38p, this created a rift as they weren’t offered in
I know one could argue they could have bought in the market at those prices but at the volume of the SB trade, and given tjg low daily volume this would have rocketed the SP so in reality they couldn’t
The golden share also stops any serious investing group from investing as they don’t have a say in takeover or merger strategy which is the SOTP investment thesis
I would therefore argue the golden share going is massive for Pi and moulding g not releasing in despite the RNS shows why sort of character our ceo is
Not true pencil - it means all shareholders and all shares have the same rights ie we are equal. Otherwise as a shareholder you are happy for someone to be more important than you based on the rights attached to a share rather than the number owned
Golden share means no level playing field hence why limited II have bought in . When this goes it’s massive esp for the SOTP valuations as shareholders and activists can lobby to unlock value
But pearls in 2021 moulding g did RNS THg he was giving up his golden share. So Market wouldn’t react , as non one trusts him or his guidance
No, I think the board will fire him
Have a look at last month for all 3 companies. Makes every somber reading for Thg .
Look how easily it’s fallen again even now. Shorts increased . Seen this pattern so many times
Went one better - opened a short
So predictable
stevescott1001
Posted in: THG
Posts: 981
Price: 58.82
No Opinion
RE: Kelso Group…09 Feb 2023 08:46
Normally goes very red when that happens….
This will fall hard if / when US futures fall a bit later
Hence why the cfo was essentially sacked by the board (expect large impairments to come out)
Oke - keep posting your numbers - they are interesting
1pencil is a good debater to the forum so better for you guys to debate numbers to benefit us all
If thg only manage 100m Editda with inpit costs falling hard, it would prove to me they have a model that doesn’t work and will run out of cash over time
And all the while the SP goes down methodologically on the greenest of Green Day’s
Utter lack of confidence in this POS
Tuan, very valid points and the answer or fault is the same - Matthew moulding and his ego
There is no way they need hotels and spas (esp with a huge studio that can be kitted out to resemble any marketing campaign layout needed)
There is no way a share should drop so hard unless there is a total lack of confidence in the company and it’s leadership from the City
And how moulding has behaved is why the city does not like golden shares and founders to be ceo/ chair / landlord
It’s a disaster of a perfect storm
Oke -
I like your train of thought but I think the partnership with AND digital will allow systems to sync without high caoex now and I think the Boris deal (if true) is fulfillment as much as anything so using spare capacity
Likely a combo of :
shorts reloaded yesterday
There are better opps (short term) elsewhere
Moulding is a pric
Market things said pric was lying about whales