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Obvious explanation. Seller in the background.
So this was 59p. Since then moulding posted, better than expected us retail sales came in, and Thg is testing a day low
Stop posting moulding , and start delivering
SIH. Some posters here are moulding and thg cultists. They can’t face up to the reality. This is an excellent share to short or trade, but broadly terrible to just hold and do nothing with
Moulding is all Mouth no action / what has he actually done to stick it to the media and the shorts? Missed his own forecasts. Proven ingenuity commerce doesn’t work? Shown you can’t believe anything he RNSs (golden share/ premium listing)
When did Marshall wace increase again? 1.4% short!!
Exactly, just some transparency and delivering what they say.
Moulding is incapable of this. You can still think Thg is a decent enough investment, whilst thinkimg the ceo is a dishonest twit. Thg becomes a very decent investment with a professional honest ceo, who works for the shareholders, and not just for one shareholder who has a golden share like the Mould
Agree moody, Thg looked decent all day. Clearly whale/ boots rumour true. Let’s hope Thg decide to share it, d8nt trouts moulding at all to do this
Looking to steal this back on the cheap. Seems to hate us shareholders
Never fails to amaze just how quick this POS can and will drop
2% drop in a couple of minutes after market waited to see if an RNS was coming hour into US trading. Obvs now and now targeting red.
Impossible share to hold/ have to trade the beep out of it
AS do you think this is a multi bagger with moulding as ceo? Could be a x3/x4 with a proven professional ceo
One thing is for sure. For thg to ever get out of the mess their sp is in, they are going to need a series of blockbuster good news. Look how way shorts can walk it down. It’s pathetic. Going red would be the most bullish signal and also mean all mda from 5 to 200 days are void ie. No support
Thg is just a laughing stock now. Ot looks like it may actually go red.
Boohoo, a total dog of a company, opened red and is now +3% whereas thg is at a day low up 1 penny
Doesn’t help Rampers like city spy lie- should change his name to the city lie
Looks like the market is calling BS and the Algos are totally selling into it
Gotta agree with smart pee - if it another lie, then SP The I’ll be punished
Still there could be a RNS during US opening - overall I m skeptical
Market makers are deplyed their favorite tactic of a very wide spread whimsy subtly lowering the bid. They then wipe it and refocus on the lowest number/ they are masters at it
Maybe the whale is a US client and RNS will come at 5:30-6:30
It all depends on the saas deals they announce as whales. None of us, including the market and brokers, know the make up of these deals, as it has not been shared. Once this is shared or an ebitda figure attributed, we can make an informed decision on strategy at the moment it’s just guess / estimate work
On matalan - looks like it starts around - still it is incremental revenue and ebitda
In December 2021, Matalan signed a deal with THG Ingenuity, an arm of etailer THG, to accelerate its digital ambitions. The initiative is due to launch in the next few months with a remodelled online presence for Matalan, and a new ecommerce app.
The online and offline sales split at Matalan is estimated to be 80% offline and 20% online, indicating there is much more work to do in promoting its offering through digital channels.
https://www.drapersonline.com/news/a-shot-in-the-arm-for-matalan-under-new-owners
Thanks Oke, In the h1 results they guided finance costs at 100m for 2022 and similar for 2023, so how certain are you on the 60m?
Ps on demand and other is only circa 180m revenue in 2022
Morning Oke - what do the brokers notes you ve seen have as ebitda, capex and finance costs for 2023 and 2024. Would be great to get their view
2021 ingenuity capex at 78m, agree. I think it’s been similar amounts in 2020 and 2019. Do you see it as being same amount in 2022 (I think makes sense based on pro rata the h1 amount)
Thg guide that maintainance capex is 3.5% - which is circa 80m. Do you think that covers the ingenuity capex then and essentially noting else except few small minor things as they do guide that logistic network is now fully invested in mid term (with USA automation now live)
Yes very good list crafty- thanks
Eph is right with the watch outs, you simply cannot trust what Mould guides to now which is hard as an investor.
We also need to note that most shorts haven’t really decreased much as rather they have simply gone to 0.49% so you cannot see them (there is at least 4-5 hidden there in my view)
Clearly the more partnerships thg achieve, either licensing through mypro or ingenuity whales, the better for the SP
Ebitda (not adjusted ebitda) is key as is FCF positive. After removing adjusted, I have ebitda at only 1% or circa 10m for 2022, which is clearly terrible. Even 2020 and 2021 ebitda after adjusted is removed is only 4-5%
For FCF neutral they will need ebitda to be circa 140m (plus the 40m free holding sale) so they have huge job in their hand.
Put simply, the thg business model does not currently generate enough ebitda.
They can manage this by driving higher margin/ less promo (they are essentially an online discounter which is why ingenuity commerce has been such a disaster as the brands who used it aren’t discounters) or they can cut costs. The 2 main costs being:
- capex at 5% of sales so circa 120m
- finance costs at 100m
Re finance costs, they have actually managed to reduce the rent they pay moulding from circa 21m to circa 16m per annum so this is not a huge cost to be fair and a good saving (they seem to have got rid of having to use one long term rent of circa 5m
So the big increase is finance costs from loans- this is obviously from increased interests rates and the cost to hedge- easiest solution here is to reduce down capex and pay off some debt over the next few years to bring the principle down (of the term b 500m loan)
Clearly any outside investment they can get from selling a % of a division would be gold dust and should be used to py down debt - again this would cause a significant re rate
Finally they should sell the vanity hotels and spas- again this would generate cash and could be used to reduce debt (as well as cut costs such as staff/ rent etc). This would be such a positive move and could happen as this division is under review
There is so so much optionality that is share holder accretive but there is also so much distrust and misalignment between what’s helps share holders and what helps Matthew moulding and his cohorts (Iain McDonald). Let’s hope old Charlie Allen is on our side