Member Info for SteveJones999

Not convinced - if Powell feels inflation is proving harder to tackle, rate will remain higher for longer and if even worse then a higher than .25 at next increase would see gold go well below 1800

Yes, gold is awaiting Powell... bad news and drop... you all know what is bad news for gold so I won't explain.

Thanks Mr Bond :-)

Thanks Bob- yes this is key- and when a major starts a big sell, it's hard to spot as typically lots of small ones and then, as you say, only declared well after the event.

Replace dual with FUEL!

What % of AISC is the diesel element of the dual bill now that we have solar?
this is the key question

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-cey/centamin-shares/news/centamin-plcs-loncey-large-institutional-owners-must-be-happ

Ooops - I got the date wrong, it's US NFP Data next Friday :-).

it's all about the data later-

It won't be you who puts the mockers on it lol- it could be the non farm payroll data released today- fingers crossed it's a miss and the ensuing info surrounding it too- and good for gold.

Ooops- his name is "Przemyslaw Radomski"

Not if you read Sotolo's "right" analyst - he predicted a massive whack for miners - this prediction made mod Feb 2023:

"On the above chart, I used the HUI Index as a proxy, as it’s been around for a long time, and I want to put the recent move lower into proper perspective.

Gold stocks moved lower in a manner that was almost exactly as fast as what we saw in 2008. The red dashed lines show this similarity, and the green dashed lines show the analogy to the 2013 decline.

Why would those situations be similar?

The technical patterns are similar to a considerable extent (practically the only sizable difference is the early 2022 rally that’s likely based on the Russian invasion), and we even got the same kind of sell signals from the RSI (upper part of the chart) and Stochastic (lower part of the chart) indicators.

The Fundamental Trigger

On the fundamental front, we now have a perfectly bearish situation in which real rates are high and rising, and most investors appear to be oblivious to this fact. But the wake-up call will arrive, and when it does, it will likely arrive violently. Remember how the markets reacted to a different fundamental event about 15 years ago? The markets plunged in the aftermath of the subprime crisis. This time, the fundamental trigger is different, but it’s likely to hit just as hard – if not harder.

This means that gold stocks could decline really profoundly in the following months.
"

Gold can only go up or down so pointless listening to predictions from people as there are 1,000s of them out there so the likelihood of many being correct is high on a 50/50 bet... only worth reading of exact figure to hit with rationale is posted and when- nearly all of them when they stage at say 1800 gold price it will go up to say 1850 then down and it goes to 1830 simply still claim to to right just slightly off - it's all pointless unless you believe in the rationale- most cover themselves with waffle though and are utterly pointless, lick hungry charlatans

Well he was wrong then. so he will probably be wrong again too

Yes 3bear- it's great that we have lots of contributors with differing nuances. Next set of US data on inflation etc will move things too

This may or may not be the case- but what is pretty much all of the case- AISC reported goes up
and SP goes down and vice versa- all others being equal

Of course but that's ages ago now and all the market is interested in is the future - eg solar plant and other cost savings with far better cost control and completion of the wall slip! Plus current predictions on
future costs is key by CEY

Not relevant Sotolo- you can't simply make those calculation assumptions as they are wrong. Inflation is a moveable thing so you can't simply say "x" and "y" and profit is "z"... for example you need to understand all line items of costs that make up the aisc , the origin of costs and the levels of inflation on those costs, for example how much of their costs base is fuel and what % of fuel in their overall asic and what fuel is predicted to cost moving forward. the same for staff costs and so on and so on and so on. Then the costs moving forward can be used in relation to ounces mined etc And remember some costs can actually deflate
although most will simply inflate also at a massively reduced rate

The problem with BREXIT was that it promised different things to those who promoted it- now all we hear is that the reason why it is failing is cos the way it's being implemented- utter rubbish. We
constantly hear about "not exploiting opportunities" which is waffle as no one EVER states exactly what these are specifically eg the new trade deal with "x" will yield "y" in - all the new trade deals yield f all. And if all these opportunities do in fact exist- they still yield f all. They never state any specifics. My personal experience has been paying loads
more for parts(duty) for my motorbike racing that I have to get from Germany l, not to the mention the delays along with flipping carnet costs and time to do- thought we were supposed to have reduced paperwork not increased amount etc of goods transported for euro events- the only benefit i've seen so far is i get a stamp in my passport when i visit Spain

This would not be good news if this is the case for gold. Gold needs less tightening and i'm banking on inflation dropping without the need for more INCREASED tightening which will heighten recession likelihood and cause gold to drop back. Equally, cey would suffer more as an equity- tightening INCREASE not good there either -