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I’m a long term holder here so know the pain others have experienced with this company.
Until recently there was no hope, but now there could be a glimmer of light at the end of a long tunnel. If like me other LTH have averaged down over the years then break even SP will have dropped significantly, so losses could still be recovered.
On some points I do agree with Kashdog but I do feel it’s not all doom & gloom anymore. I believe Slovenia will have to settle to some degree at some point in the future, if AST have a strong case that settlement could come earlier than some may expect (as others have stated though it won’t be anywhere near €500m).
One thought I will leave you with though, that could be even bigger deal than say a €30m settlement amount from Slovenia. If Russia keep the gas tap to Europe turn off throughout the winter where will Slovenia gets its gas supply from? They know there’s gas in the ground in their own country, could they follow UK’s recent decision to allow fracking as even a temporary replacement of supply? Just imagine if ANY form of stimulation is allowed for AST to extract their gas and at current prices that could be a game changer for AST and finally for all LTH of the stock.
GLA LTH…
Hi all,
Does anyone have any opinions on whether there will be a share consolidation on relist?
Example 100:1 would mean old SP was around 0.40p so new SP (at similar level as before) would be around 40p.
We are hoping the new value of the shares to be higher than pre suspension of course, example : 1p would now be 100p)
Surely it would be a good thing to do to attract more II, hedge fund and pension investors/traders to COPL?
Plus to have less shares in issue is also a good thing as well.
So my queries are to those in the know about these things!
Can they consolidate before resisting?
Should the do it?
Will they do it?
Opinions of other LTH valued in this point!
GLA LTH!
Does anyone have any idea the value of the 7500-1000 scm/day being sold to INA? Based on current raw gas prices?
At least they have this revenue coming in while they proceed the court proceedings. It should be higher value than previous sales due to gas price increases.
Let’s hope the pressure is sustained longer than expected without re-stimulation.
GLA!!
Hi Dangler,
If there is any significant drop in the SP on Monday the only way to look at it is as a buy in/average down opportunity.
Best time to buy is into any weakness, then hold and see how things develop..
SP might dip Monday AM, but it’s possible it could recover over the coming weeks as we get more news..
GLA..
Slovenia Gov won’t give us €20m so we’ll take them to court for €100million+..!!
If the case is as strong as implied then the Slovenian Gov are a bunch of idiots!
Now instead of €20-25million now AST could get 3/4 times that via a court decision..!!
It could be that to save face the Slovenian Gov don’t want to settle early, but let a court decide and then pay up?
AST was always a medium/long term play, a little more patience, hold your shares and you could be rewarded massively on a positive court decision...
GLA LTH...
Good Afternoon all Fellow LTH...
I've been invested in AST since 2017. Here's my take on the potential for AST 6-12 months post possible settlement.
History:
Back in 2017 when AST was waiting for the permit decisions the SP was trading in the 2.5-3p range (pre-consolidation, equates now to 250-300p now), although you do have to factor in some further dilution over the past 4 years so it not a direct comparison. As we know the permit to build a small Processing plant was granted, the other required permits were not...
Possible Settlement:
€20-25million, plus re-stimulation permits and a further 5 year licence until 2026.
What that could mean to AST:
1) AST would be able to re-stimulate the wells to obtain maximum output consistently.
2) AST would have the funds required to build the small processing plant onsite, enabling them to sell treated gas directly into the Slovenian grid. (costs of building the plant were around €10million back in 2017). Note: it would be 12-18months before this would be completed. Back in 2017 AST would of had to raise or borrow the money to build the processing plant.
3) While the processing plant is being built AST can sell raw gas to INA at a higher price and possibly in higher volumes than ever before. Potentially creating a small profit over operating costs.
4) The value of the asset in the ground has increased by at least 50% in the last 4 years (was quoted as €200m in 2017) so now we are looking at €300m plus now.
5) AST would have funds to expand other current projects like Cuba and look for new opportunities without raising funds and diluting the SP, or borrowing from a bank/financial institution.
6) AST would be 100% debt free, and would be able to pay Align back any funds drawn on the recent loan facility.
Based on the potential of all the above I can see AST potentially being worth £100million (MCAP) in 6-12months time which would equate to a SP of 92p.
I'm not trying to ramp, I'm am looking far ahead and the potential longer term affects of a settlement now and not expecting this to happen next week or next month. Tango1 has a slightly higher price target of 150p which is not impossible to achieve either in my opinion. What might be worth considering though is the SP will spike on a good settlement RNS, but greater rewards on your investment might be achieved by holding a bit longer for the potential longer term affects to play out.
Opinions from any fellow LTH always appreciated, if I've missed something positive or negative do comment as I wouldn't want to mislead new investors in AST.
As Always GLA LTH!!
Good afternoon fellow AST LTH..
Here’s my take on things Oldblue when looking at the medium to long term! I’m not trying to ramp this is not going to happen overnight so some patience will be required!!
These thoughts are based on a Settlement as follows:
€20-25million plus all permits required to restimulate the wells.
3-4 years ago while waiting for permits to restimulate and build a small processing plant onsite the share price was trading in the range of 2.5-3p (pre-consolidation, now that would equate to 250-300p). The permit to build the processing plant was granted the others required were not.
Now to today, if AST is granted substantial compensation and the stimulation permits required along with new 5yr term (til 2026). Then this is quite possible:
1) AST will be able to stimulate the wells to obtain the maximum output possible.
2) AST will have the funds to build the small required processing plant on-site, once completed they will be able to sell gas into Slovenian grid. Compared to 3 yrs ago AST would of had to raise/or borrow the approx €10m to build the plant. (Note: I will take 1yr-18months to build the plant).
3) The value of the asset in the ground has risen by at least 50% in the last 3/4 years. In 2017 it was reported to be worth €200million so now it’s €300million plus.
4) While the processing plant is constructed AST will be able to sell substantially more raw gas to INA at a higher price than ever before, possibly creating a profit above operating costs.
5) AST will have funds to progress the Cuba project and any others it’s considering without further dilution of the share price or borrowing from a bank/financial institution.
6) AST will be 100% debt free, and will repay Align any recent drawdowns on its loan facility.
So baring all that in mind I can easily see within 6-12 months from the settlement being agreed that the MCAP of AST could get to at least £100million, which would equate to a SP of 92p.
Thoughts on the above from other fellow LTH always appreciated! Tango1 has a higher price target of 150p so I’m a little more conservative and looking at 6-12months ahead. The SP may pop on the settlement but it just might be a wise move if they get the settlement detailed above there could be greater rewards for those who hold a little longer than sell out on the news...
GLA LTH!!
This has to be viewed as great news, I wonder if a settlement is offered whether shareholders will get to vote to accept or reject the offer? Or will the BOD & Legal Team decide this on our behalf??
Shame SP dropped after RNS, I presume people were expecting a settle never figure which did not appear. I think it will bounce at little after RNS is read and understood.
It’s good news for all LTH still is massive losses!
DYOR, GLA
Hi Extrader,
No mention of ORPH so far in coverage, just HVIVO and general reporting. I presume this is because HVIVo are running the study within ORPH’s facilities.
Any investor following the trail would end up at ORPH though..if they have more than 2 brain cells that is !! Haha!!
GLA..!
Hi all,
Coverage of the announcement of the HVIVo trial has already featured twice on the BBC News Channel this morning! Including interview of HVIVo CSO Dr Andrew Catchpole!! Great exposure so far!!
GLA!!
Hi all,
Positives can be taken from the RNS, for one it’s the first placing in years for AST to be oversubscribed to existing ii and other shareholders.
Secondly a third string to the bow added for possible future revenues.
GLA & DYOR
Hi Ivans,
A valid question on revenue, but it’s far too early to be able to calculate, even estimate currently.
It might not be possible until after the settlement is announced as permits might be part of the package.
In turn where and to whom AST can sell gas too might be affected or restricted. Then there is the factors of current raw untreated gas prices and the pressure of wells leading to the potential amount of gas for sale now, and after re-stimulation (if that happens).
A new contract with INA would have to be drawn up as well. The only thing that’s for certain is AST will be making more money from selling to INA now than they ever did during the 2017-19 period.
Apologies for the vague answer, other LTH might have differing opinions.
DYOR and Good Luck All...
Hi Tango1,
Trust is definitely required between an investor & the BOD.
It’s early days but so far this BOD are looking more trustworthy than when CH was in charge..plus good communication already.
Once we have trust hopefully some positive sentiment will return and the SP will rise on the back of it. GLA..
Hi all,
I hope everyone is well and keeping themselves safe during these difficult Covid times.
As a LTH in AST from pre-consolidation days of 2017/18 and suffering like a lot of other LTH with large paper losses (especially after consolidation) I thought I’d look back as where AST was back then and compare it to now to see what the potential is now for both LTH to recover losses and new investors to make some money.
2017/18
At the highs of this period the SP was around 3p (300p equivalent now). We were waiting for permits to land to restimulate the wells and build a processing plant onsite to enable the sale of gas directly into the Slovenia grid.
We had a contract to sell raw gas to INA in Croatia while the process was being followed.
At this time the ‘asset’ as in gas in the ground was valued at circa €200million.
We all know that the re-stimulation permits were not granted and the SP dropped dramatically other things (such as tools down wells) also caused the SP to drop.
What AST did get is the IPPC permit for the processing plant. So if this is still valid they do have that.
Then the 100-1 consolidation happened, new board and the legal challenge started...
Feb 2021
So where are we now in comparison:
Current SP 14p
Value of asset has increased from €200m to circa €400m due to gas price increases over past 3 years.
New Contract to sell raw gas to INA (possibly at much higher prices than before) once current pressure testing completed.
€20-€40million in compensation pending from Slovenian government.
Re-stimulation permits for current wells could be awarded as part of settlement.
IPPC permit already in hand (if still valid) so on-site processing plant can be built.
Pressure in wells increases naturally over time and they have been closed for nearly 14months, so current pressures could be higher than the pre Dec 2019 closure, so more gas to sell.
Cuba - the new unknown project so AST is no longer a one trick pony anymore. Recent news that Cuba is open for business to companies outside Cuba can only help this project develop in coming months/years.
Finally - Settlement from Slovenia (TBC of course) should be enough to cover the cost of building the processing plant and to further advance the Cuba project without any further financing/placings being required, therefore no further dilution to the SP.
Factoring all the above and if news in next few weeks is as expected then surely a SP of 100-150p is achievable in the medium term (1-1.5p in pre-consolidation money!)
That’s still only 50% of where we were when waiting for permits in 2018 on the back of an asset worth €200m and no money to build the processing plant.
I hope these observations help LTH & New investors alike.
Other LTH’s opinions always appreciated. I’m not trying to to ramp the SP but point out that the fundamentals are there for a sustainable rise over the medium term.
As always DYOR, check historic RNS’s for full picture.
Good luck and best wis
Morning Dangler2000,
Here you can find out a bit more regarding pressure issues in gas mining, it’s all a bit technical but I hope it answers some of your query..
https://www.piprocessinstrumentation.com/instrumentation/pressure-measurement/article/15563830/reducing-the-risks-of-annular-pressure-buildup
Just round this regarding the reopening of the wells. Useful facts that may remind some LTH of where we were and the future potential.
https://seenews.com/news/ascent-restarts-production-at-gas-well-in-slovenias-petisovci-field-730345
Could this be yet more good news for AST..??
Cuba opens up its economy to private businesses https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-55967709