Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
It’s a good price for a top-up ... :-)
Where did I say it was marginal?
You’re also assuming that H2 =H1 and ignoring guidance completely?
You’re also ignoring the fact that even if we got to the 20k test capacity and sold them all from say December, you’d have about 6 months at 10k tests and 4 months at 20k tests in this FY .. so £5m tops to end March compared to core without covid of say £20m - so it’s actually 20-25% of this FY .. not 75%
I’m not arguing that it’s disappointing we aren’t running at full 20k capacity, it clearly is, but our niche was the high margin private market and lockdown 2 clobbered it. We can only hope that they are trying to fill that capacity in any way they can.
JAdam, how did you make £12m become 75% of the business? Are you saying all the other products total £4m ?
Looks a dramatic number though, well done!
Go on then Col, if you had a go on the train set what would you do?
Frankie, how many people here have predicted a pound by Christmas? There are far more people here predicting doom and gloom than there are talking it up! Out of all the shares on AIM, this must be one of the least pumped and definitely one of the least successfully pumped that I’ve ever seen! It was almost comical when one or two turned up and tried!
If Lyn does read this board, he must be laughing his arse off at those throwing their toys out of their prams because ygen didn’t do a Ncyt multibag!
Yes, I’m sure he’s just sitting there thinking, we’ve built our capacity to 20k, but I’m happy if we only do a couple of thousand ..
Do you really think that’s what is happening? Or does having a rant just make you feel good?
Haven’t you heard? The French have closed the ports for 48hrs just for Yourgene!
Frankie, it doesn’t just have to be air travel - there are a lot of drivers queued up on the M20 to Dover ... test them in the queue and get them on the ferries!!
Novacyt were straight out with an RNS saying their PCR test detects the new strain, hopefully we’re busy validating Clarigene!!
Notaflip,
Thanks for the detailed recap! I had no hope of that debt being recovered but Esprite’s bankruptcy has put the lost bail in the coffin.
Like you say, it’s all been accounted for long ago anyway so no impact on current numbers!
Onwards and upwards!
Twix,
I’m thankful for small mercies - the Vialogy fiasco was before my time! I first bought Premaitha at around 12p, watched it shoot up and the crash and burn in the litigation and funding cycle for years! Oh and how many top up opportunities have we had?! ??
I agree, the reporting does seem more consistent when the numbers are good, and lacking when things aren’t going quite to plan! That’s probably human nature in essence, but certainly does no good to sentiment and needs to be improved! I do sympathise with them somewhat, outlook is very tricky in this climate but as you say, past numbers have happened and should be reported and any impact on FY should be notified directly or accurately guided to those publishing targets .
I am still a little surprised that they have reiterated FY numbers now that we’re nearly half way through H2. It would’ve been a good opportunity to bury and bad news and lower the estimates! So, I wonder which bit of the pipeline they expect to be over-performing?
I probably get less stressed about the reporting issues than most because I think the end game is still there and ultimately it makes little difference how we get there.
Twix,
I can’t remember exactly when, but I’m pretty sure it was words from Barry during one of the Q&A’s that made me mentally note that there was basically sod all chance of recovering the debt. After the litigation debacle, to be honest, I was quite pleased that we don’t get reminded of it!!
IMO, the Novacyt link was a little tricky to notify initially, presumably we were developing Clarigene before the announcement but couldn’t say too much and didn’t want to burn bridges if it didn’t come off, but when Clarigene was announced they should’ve been more explicit that whilst we would continue obligations under the initial contract with Novacyt, that there was unlikely to be further revenue from them. Again, IIRC it was a Q&A that drove the answer about the value of the Novacyt contract.
So, not ideal, but I remain confident that we’ll do well over the next year or two as the investments made to broaden the product portfolio ramp up! DPYD seems to have a lot of mileage!
Twix,
We did get updates on a couple of the issues you mention ...
Didn’t the company that owed us £750k basically go into administration? I think Barry spoke on it in one of the presentations and said that they were very unlikely to see any of that back. There was some comment about them monitoring the situation but also concern about a counter claim due to the patent infringement. I imagine the legal costs and risks involved made it safer / prudent to write it off - we had enough legal fees without needing another case!
We also know the Novacyt deal ended because we developed our own test, but that deal for “critical components” was only a few £100k. I believe Nova also modified their test to remove the need for that component (was it magnetic beads?) too but would have to dig back to check that!
The Covid numbers aren’t visible, are disappointing but neither are they predictable it seems! After the briefing today, it still looks like PCR is the way to go so let’s hope Lyn is chasing more of the action than our previous private niche!
An RNS for clarigene updated to identify new variant perhaps?
You do realise there’s a pandemic going on which can affect businesses and even the best laid plans?
Execution is not perfect, nobody is pretending it is. But things change beyond ygen’s control too... We were at capacity on private tests - our niche, we increase capacity and then the travel industry gets clobbered and our workplace testing loses numbers because everyone is told to work from home again. I expect this to come back again after wave 3 but will tell.
The continued focus on core business expansion to ensure a resilient business also seems prudent does it not? Given that the covid business is not predictable?
If (yes, it’s a small word with a big meaning and that’s why I used it), IF they make their FY numbers, which they again reiterated nearly half way through H2, thats 50% earnings growth. Not too shabby for a liar who’s only interested in himself is it?
Colsoul, please do give us the benefit of your solid advice ... Should we all sell ygen like you have? Which shares or funds should we buy?
Ps. If you ask Lyn nicely, I’m sure he’ll send you some tenalady as a thank you for your business advice!
Did he say which Xmas?
I wouldn’t complain if he was right though :-)
Or it could be Twix trying to hit 4m on the quiet ;-)
I did wonder if the large-ish trades shown at the end of day yesterday were one of our regular buyers like Myers, or the BOD picking some up and whether we'd see a TR-1 / Director trade notification ... They have a couple of days to declare IIRC, although if it was to "support" the SP I guess they'd declare ASAP!
They clearly saw good value at 17-18p to buy at that price ... so is 15p is even better value? Or is it a great place to sell?
If they had bought at the bottom you'd be whining that they engineered it to make more profit! Unbelievable!
Time will tell if he’s managed to catch the bottom perfectly!
Anyone else selling?
So who will win after the ColSol -> Twix share transfer completes? Only a couple of days to issue those TR-1’s!