Member Info for stephen11

I think you're onto something there Muminr

Someone is taking blocks of 2.0m and 1.5m shares.

Might DN be loading up again - fair play to him i say.

You’d think at 18% DN might get a seat on the board?

Thanks for sharing Lionel1.

I note your opinion ButterMyCrumpets, but respectfully disagree.

Are you basing your figures around FDA submission on industry standards or around anecdotal evidence?

Here's my fact based logic and i'm happy to be corrected:

Total Estimated Range

Cost Category Estimated Range

FDA User Fee = £10k – £11k

Regulatory Consulting = £150k – £300k

Testing & Validation = £50k – £150k

Internal Project Costs = £30k – £80k

Responding to AI (additional information) = £20k – £60k

Total (base to higher) £260k – £600k+

So, a typical cost for a well-executed 510(k) = £350k – £450k

Why this range is credible for GDR specifically:

- They already have CE/UKCA and NICE validations — a solid evidence base.

- Paloh, Scotland pilots, and real-world NHS data drive clinical credibility.

- Genedrive is experienced in regulatory pathways (CE + UKCA).

- The FDA submission will likely leverage existing data rather than “starting from scratch.”

- This puts GDR closer to the mid-range cost profile, not the high end.

- Estimated FDA 510(k) submission through to decision cost = £350k–£450k (inclusive of consulting, testing, and internal resourcing). Actual user fee is minor (~£10–11k), but preparation and validation constitute the majority. Budgeting this expense within the planned £6m raise is manageable and should not severely constrain other strategic spend.

- Manufacturing scale-up should reduce costs, through economies of scale and not increase them

- The IP transfer can be managed by the American partner (who GDR have in place according to previous RNS reports)

GLA.

Stephen11.

It's all in the RNS:

1/ Short-term (1–3 weeks)

Most likely update:

RNS confirming progress on approvals and documentation

Possibly wording like:

“Formal documentation substantially agreed”

“Regulatory submissions made”

2/ Medium-term (3–6 weeks)

Big catalyst:

Confirmation of MEMR / SKK Migas approval

Release of first US$5m Nations tranche

This is the “money in the bank” moment — markets love it.

3/ Follow-on catalyst (same or subsequent RNS)

Confirmation that EME receives 8.5% of consideration

Clarification around lender restructuring (even partial)

So, plenty of interesting days ahead!

GLA.

Stephen11.

I think it is the latter Andrew - after fundraise, with £6m runway (15/16 months), tax credits, natural revenue of circa £1m (maybe more), and near-term growth opportunities, its the best shape i've seen GDR in over the last 6 years.

A natural point of inflection.

FDA application in June 2026 and hopefully acceptance in Sept/Oct 2026 will be a big catalyst for the SP.

The AIM market goes 'wet' for FDA.

And here's why?

@@@@The Fundamentals don't Lie@@@@@

1/ Existential risk removed

The forced withdrawal notice is withdrawn and the dispute is settled — this removes the single biggest binary risk that was suppressing EME’s valuation.

2/ Economic exposure retained, cash calls eliminated

EME keeps 8.5% economic exposure to Mako via the SPV while avoiding future development cash calls — a rare “free carry to production” outcome for a junior.

3/ Direct entitlement to Nations payments

EME is entitled to 8.5% of each Nations instalment paid to WNEL, including the near-term US$5m tranche — this is real, visible value, not distant optionality.

4/ Clear path to first gas (Q4 2027)

The project is fully financed, GSA signed, operator aligned, and timeline reaffirmed — reduces discount rate materially.

5/ Tone: cooperative, pragmatic, final

Both RNSs use “binding”, “full and final settlement”, “amicable”, “supportive lender” — this reads like resolution, not a temporary truce.

0.165 was previous high if i remember correctly.

GLA.

Stephen11

Indeed - trades all buys - 50 to 100% day to come 😃

Timeframe Expected News

Jan–Feb 2026: Firm terms RNS, GM notice, open offer details

Feb–Mar 2026: Shareholder meeting/open offer launch

Mar–May 2026: Open offer take-up results; NHS/ICB rollouts; Middle East updates

Jun 2026: FDA 510(k) submission announcement

Jul–Aug 2026: FDA acceptance or early feedback

Sep–Oct 2026 FDA 510(k) decision window

Late 2026: National commissioning developments; large hospital placements

Early 2027: Broader commercial and revenue acceleration news

All based on info from previous RNS reports. The future is bright.

GLA.

Stephen11.

Based on:

- Early push, then consolidation

- Early spike to 0.115–0.13

Volume lower than Friday but still elevated

Trigger:

- Momentum traders chasing “settlement play”

- Social/media amplification over weekend

- Conrad holders cross-checking deal economics

With a strong wind Friday could see 0.15 to 0.20

GLA.

Stephen11.

You are correct Expo - results should be out this week, except in the case of unexpected delays.

Here's Why?

The wording means that ESP testing is already underway as a single, continuous operation, and the company expects the entire testing programme — including pump activation, flow stabilisation and data gathering — to be completed within 2–3 weeks. It does not mean they are waiting 2–3 weeks to start testing. In industry practice, once the ESP is installed and activated, testing begins immediately and data is collected throughout the period. The cautious phrasing reflects AIM disclosure rules and operational uncertainty, not a delay. In plain terms, meaningful results should emerge within that 2–3-week window, barring unexpected mechanical or stabilisation issues.

I thought EME might have been mentioned in the Daily Mail share section yesterday, although it wasn’t Blakie - they normally write about AIM stocks that have experienced significant increases after news.

Maybe 🤔 today.

Anyways - I’m hoping this tests 0.17-0.20 by the end of the week. This stock is undervalued at current levels and the risk has been taken away by confirmation of the free carry of the 8.5%.

Just by take - might be wrong.

GLA.

Stephen11.

It will be interesting to see how Monday trades?…any thoughts 💭?

@@@@The Fundamentals don't Lie@@@@@

1/ Existential risk removed

The forced withdrawal notice is withdrawn and the dispute is settled — this removes the single biggest binary risk that was suppressing EME’s valuation.

2/ Economic exposure retained, cash calls eliminated

EME keeps 8.5% economic exposure to Mako via the SPV while avoiding future development cash calls — a rare “free carry to production” outcome for a junior.

3/ Direct entitlement to Nations payments

EME is entitled to 8.5% of each Nations instalment paid to WNEL, including the near-term US$5m tranche — this is real, visible value, not distant optionality.

4/ Clear path to first gas (Q4 2027)

The project is fully financed, GSA signed, operator aligned, and timeline reaffirmed — reduces discount rate materially.

5/ Tone: cooperative, pragmatic, final

Both RNSs use “binding”, “full and final settlement”, “amicable”, “supportive lender” — this reads like resolution, not a temporary truce.

0.165 was previous high if i remember correctly.

GLA.

Stephen11

Thanks Aklee,

I'm glad i held my nerve over the last few months. Well done to the board for staying strong and all the other shareholders who held the line.

Yes....its not often you see a small company get a 8.5% free carry in such a huge resource. The upside from here is tremendous for those who hold long....

GLA.

Stephen11.

1/ Existential risk removed

The forced withdrawal notice is withdrawn and the dispute is settled — this removes the single biggest binary risk that was suppressing EME’s valuation.

2/ Economic exposure retained, cash calls eliminated

EME keeps 8.5% economic exposure to Mako via the SPV while avoiding future development cash calls — a rare “free carry to production” outcome for a junior.

3/ Direct entitlement to Nations payments

EME is entitled to 8.5% of each Nations instalment paid to WNEL, including the near-term US$5m tranche — this is real, visible value, not distant optionality.

4/ Clear path to first gas (Q4 2027)

The project is fully financed, GSA signed, operator aligned, and timeline reaffirmed — reduces discount rate materially.

5/ Tone: cooperative, pragmatic, final

Both RNSs use “binding”, “full and final settlement”, “amicable”, “supportive lender” — this reads like resolution, not a temporary truce.

I'm seeing +200%....the second wave is coming. Day traders have got there cash. This could still do +400%.

0.17 was previous high if i remember correctly.

GLA.

Stephen11.

Full rights associated with EME’s 8.5% carried forward, including 8.5% of gas payments.

Happy days.

DN must like what he sees under the bonnet 😀.