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Not disagreeing with the above (and it is a good post), but if we had went from mid-30s to 26.5p I think we would all be pretty sick - it's only that the sp has came back from 22p which makes this feel better.
We now have that upward momentum so hopefully by the end of the week we will be back closer to true value - I think it is only then that I will be able to fully settle and accept that normality has returned.
Also it depends on circumstances. Over-pay mortgage by £5k, and put £5k interest free from CC into shares is better than buying shares with the original £5k. Its still £5k at risk.
Different if you think you might have problems repaying the debt if things went tits up.
I wasn't encouraging trading with money you don't have, just explaining why I am going to slice when it hits 33p
Why 30p? Genuine question - not suggesting you're wrong.
Just nice round number? I bought a load on credit card recently and will be slicing to repay that, but I don't see any reason to do that until at least the broker note price of 33p.
I remember the complaints that the 33p was far to pessimistic, backed up by the maths. Since then we've had another stellar set of drilling results. I see this going back to high 30s and settling between 35p and 38p for a while until more news is released.
Part of me wants to encourage this, but the cynic in me thinks that we're all too fickle and greedy and there would be a load of people trying to trade it.
A better way to get this back to fair market value is to "spread the word". Let people know about GGP and with enough new participants the market will correct itself
Let me tell you my experience. I came across GGP during some hype in the lead up to results. I think it was around the end of July 2020. I didn't buy in, but did some research and calculated what good results might mean.
I sat up and watch the results be released and hardly slept that night for reading them. I was determined that the sp would rocket the next morning so I was on the ball at 8:00 with everything I could pull together. The market opened and I got my shares, but within an hour the sp dropped, and dropped, and kept dropping for the next three weeks.
I thought I'd been caught out in some pump and dump, or maybe I had missed something, etc. Instead of selling though I spent my time reading and calculating, and instead became more and more confident in Havieron and that GGP was significantly under-valued.
I had bought in at nearly 15p, and by the time it had fallen to 12p I had been paid again and gathered up a few more quid from other shares I had sold. I put everything into it at 12p, and have been doing so ever since.
I appreciate that you are saying it is easy for those who bought in early and are in big profit to be calm and sit on their hands, but at one stage all of the LTHs where in the same position you are in. I'm sure all the "big-names" on here at one stage were suffering and looking at paper losses getting bigger and bigger.
If you want to be in the position of the LTHs in 6 months, then it's going to take 6 months of sitting tight! That bit of wriggle room will grow and grow, and your confidence in your calculations will also increase. I have lost £27,500 on paper in the last month in GGP, but it will come back. All I need is some patience, two hands, and an arse to put them under.
In regard to the "currently it's worth 33p" comments, bare in mind that that was produced last year. Since then we have had significant progress by Newcrest with regard to progressing the works, therefore the 50% risk allocation will already be decreasing. Hopefully tonight's results put another big dint in the risk allocation. If that risk allocation goes from 50% to 40%, then you're looking at a 40p share price by tomorrow morning potentially.
the 2p sp has absolutely no relevance to the value, without knowing the number of shares issued.
Therefore your comment is a pointless attempt to lure idiots into a conversation
In regard to only bouncing back to where we were last week, the fundamentals haven't changed, we'll still bounce to 45p plus, it's just that now that the impatient have left the bounce will be 30% rather than 15%.
If anything I suspect that we will see an "over-shoot", as PIs who sold up due to impatience clamber to get their golden tickets back
If I remember correctly the sp did open at 27p and continued to rise for about 30m up to 29p before falling. The fall was due to long term investors cashing in.
I often wonder how many people thought they done well selling at 27p, but have since topped up again at 30p plus
I see fireworks late tomorrow afternoon, or even Friday morning. Feels to me like the mm are playing a game of who will blink first between them and short-term traders who won't want their money tied up over the weekend. The uneducated with have heard gossip of rises, bought in during the last dip, and by tomorrow reckon it was all hype and sell up with their small profit.
The big event will be after that has all dried up and MMs are desperate. They know there is no point in dipping it, as that has already happened (so any weak hands have already sold up) and there is too high a risk of it backfiring with LTH PIs buying into the dips.
I'm still convinced we'll see 40p plus this week. As a LTHer though, if I've got it wrong on the expected spike I do take comfort from the fact that no big spike will = no big dip next week.