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Thanks tony, yes I have looked at the tables, wow WHI confuse everything, I note they use for 2025e
$3.18 CAD/mcf, perhaps Majid could do well to talk to them so that their broker reports at least align with i3's reporting or vice versa!!!
Thanks Tony, yes the discrepancy between volume and revenue is important which I overlooked, thank you.
May I ask, what are your thoughts on the gas price that WHI has used when converted to CAD/GJ particularly against gasalberta forecasts?
Welloil, of course I would like that to be the case, however it takes one hell of a leap of faith to believe that current gas prices at just over a $ , that it is acceptable to then forecast on over 4 times this, I'd be happy to be wrong, can someone show me forecasted gas prices of this level, https://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-prices is not showing this.
Additionally do note that WHI have used the price for gas being $US 3.50/mmbtu whereas i3e used the value of CAD/GJ.
If I am not mistaken, then that would work out at $5.05 CAD/GJ using;
- the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 1.36786 CAD
- 1 mmbtu = 1.05506 GJ (approximately)
thus
Convert USD to CAD:
3.50 USD/mmbtu x 1.36786 CAD/USD = 4.79201 CAD/mmbtu
Convert mmbtu to GJ:
1 mmbtu = 1.05506 GJ (approximately), we can multiply the CAD/mmbtu by this conversion factor.
4.79201 CAD/mmbtu×1.05506 GJ/mmbtu = 5.05109 CAD/GJ
So, the forecasted AECO gas price of $3.50 USD/mmbtu would be approximately $5.05 CAD/GJ. what world does WHI live in to take $5.05 CAD/GJ as forecasted AECO gas and being the house broker Majid should be all over this.
Tony from what I can see the reasoning behind the increase in price by WHI, is they have raised the target price aspect of the prior price by 63% which is the same price increase they have adjusted the gas price uplift.
old target price 16.2p represents approx. 50% gas thus 16.2p / 2 = 8.1p x 163% = 13.2p + 8.1p = 21.3p thus new price is just a reflection of WHI increasing the gas price by 63% - It then all comes down to trust in their gas price forecasting.
Rehauer, however the numbers are portrayed, people will simply look at the narrative, this being, the other day we are told of this fantastic deal that has made us debt free, today we have an RNS that shows we are likely to just end the year on the same production as last year (3% change) but with greater debt than last year, with whi showing us having a net debt figure figure rising into 2025e of £40.7m
Net debt - GBP (£m) 29.6 23.8 29.0 40.7
Majid is going to have to do some pretty major explaining, particularly as even to get to these numbers he has used a gas price double that of today.
However we look at this the market is seeing this as disappointing, seems a kick in the goolies for WHI to then up their target to 21p when actually all they have done is base that on changes in the way they have conducted their analysis by increasing the commodity price by 63%!
Munnie, I'm sure it sounds dramatic for you, and few will check your claims however, "The same Stas who told everyone to keep buying 88e regardless!" simply lies, perhaps you would like to back that up with posts that support your lies, err no thought not.
And we know where forecasts go, current price of gas is just above $1 and they are forecasting their NOI on AECO Natural Gas ($/GJ) CAD 2.25/GJ - it makes me angry that they should expend any money on gas drilling, it is the gas that has been the cause of these issues
May be but still do not understand how we are supposedly debt free now but will close the year in roughly the same debt as last year
"
· Full year 2023 net operating income ("NOI")1 (unaudited) is approximated at USD 93 million, in line with guidance, with year-end 2023 Net Debt2 expected to be approximately USD 23 million (unaudited)."
and from todays RNS
Net Debt (Dec. 2024) (6) USD 23.0 million - USD 26.0 million
where is the "“This programme will be fully funded from existing Company resources"
What about the comments on net debt increasing so much when the company states
“This programme will be fully funded from existing Company resources and is designed to balance growth, financial discipline, and a sustainable long term-dividend through a predictable development-focused programme, all while positioning the Company to commence its Simonette Montney pad development drilling in Q1 2025.”
Also the RNS states
“This programme will be fully funded from existing Company resources and is designed to balance growth, financial discipline, and a sustainable long term-dividend through a predictable development-focused programme, all while positioning the Company to commence its Simonette Montney pad development drilling in Q1 2025.”
If fully funded from existing company resources how does net debt rise so much? I have to admit to being confused where am I mistaken?
GGG my numbers were taken from this https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/i3-energy--i3e/2023-budget-guidance-dividend-and-presentation/7224211
2023
Net Operating Income (5) USD 159.6 million - 166.7 million
EBITDA (6) USD 144.0 million - 150.5 million
Net Debt USD 8.8 million - 3.0 million
2024
Net Operating Income USD 70.0 million - USD 75.0 million
EBITDA USD 55.0 million - USD 60.0 million
Net Debt USD 23.0 million - USD 26.0 million
Tony what do you make of this, how has this changed so dramatically?
"Do those involved, the directors of COPL, appreciate the affect they have had on on investors lives? Do they even care?"
yes of course they know the harm, no they don't care.
They will though when they realise that this time this shareholders fight back and their prior arrogance made them clumsy.
I guarantee, one way or the other, they are going to one day have great regret at what they did here.
March production numbers.
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/AllOpcoProd.cfm?oops=ID48157&RequestTimeOut=65000&nOpco=1769
I'm really not sure why you are concerned with me being here, technicals are my thing and to be honest after the last few sessions your chart isn't looking to bad, support seems to be holding at the mo, a close above 33.2 today would be quite positive. last 5 sessions have had higher highs and higher lows.
Buy on rumour sell on news, the push up was likely the influence of his buying, he's not buying now, thus the sales have greater influence.
His buying doesn't change the fact that a placing potential still exists. all imo of course.
Part 2
We are going to show this greedy lot that you just cannot openly steal from us and our families and think you can swan around in luxuries from my hard earned, they will, with us as a united team, going to feel the pain.
Support this action you owe it to yourself and those closest to you and feel comfort in that your only financial input in this case will be the best investment you have made in COPL.
Perhaps my first question on the call will be – what can we as a collective do to support this, what resource do you need that maybe we can provide or have access to, we are 450, use our resource?