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My understanding is there's the original

"Huh?"

You know there are 2 separate pipelines head up north?

An additional factor of late is Turkey are currently using their stretch of the ITP for exporting Mount Gabar crude oil via Ceyhan

And who do you think they will want to engage with in regards to a new pipeline agreement - the KRG or ICG/SOMO?

Well they "engaged" with the KRG for 9 years previously?

"But, obviously, the prior 'independent exports' were subject to the current pipeline contract. "

I thought the KRG and Turkey had an agreement separate from the ITP agreement.

Thanks for that info BB

Don't mind Greenday but can't stand that song for some reason, maybe that's why I never believed the September story :-)

"Not only was the original contract (plus revisions) overly cheap at the time (starting at $1.18/bbl for volume up to 22MTA), the only indexing feature it included was the annual tonnage to be transported (starting at 22MTA running up to 70.9MTA) - there was absolutely no $/bbl indexing to reflect any increasing (or decreasing) oil price."

Do we know if the 9 years of KRG independent exports were charged on the same basis?

"The bird in the hand of local sales for cash in advance remains better than the bird in the bush of international sales but at the risk of non payment from SOMO or KRG."

Yes and although WE KNOW there are other factors to be considered the actual monthly entitlement payment to GKP is not massively more should exports be restored at recent Brent prices.

Putup will probably answer you and have a bit of a meltdown at same time, when he gets out of bed back of lunchtime :-)

Smudge - certainly feels a bit like that when the weeks, months and years pass without much progress and the same news gets regurgitated, meeting after meeting after meeting.

Benefit of the current situation - paid upfront and so far very little price fluctuation despite Brent up and downs.

"You're nuts if you think Kurdistan can operate independently from September."

Would you consider that the region seemed to be doing this for 9 years prior to pipeline closure?

To some extent they perhaps still are as hard to believe 1.2 million civil servants are going without any form of salary for months on end and the "local oil sales" and internal taxes are generating an unaccounted large amount every month that can't simply be getting stolen by the few at the top.

He added that "the draft includes the delivery of 280,000 barrels of oil per day to Baghdad to Sumo, out of 400,000 barrels issued by the region, while 120,000 barrels are allocated to oil companies."He added that "due to the inability of the regional government to pay the debts of foreign oil companies, they will be given 120,000 barrels of oil deducted from debts. "He pointed out that "42,000 barrels of oil will be kept for local consumption, provided that Baghdad will provide support to the region in the field of local fuels, including white oil and gasoline.

Oh my head trying to work that lot out?

Presume GKP would've informed us at AGM update if any change to 36% entitlement (or 35.8% if u prefer)

"The total owed to GKP amounts to $151.1 million (comprising of $120.4 million cost oil and $30.7 million profit oil net to GKP after capacity building payment (‘CBP’) deduction). The total owed to GKP and MOL (who form together the ‘Shaikan Contractor’ or the ‘Contractor’) amounts to $192.8 million (comprising $150.5 million cost oil and $42.3 million profit oil). The Company continues to expect to recover the invoices in full"

Maybe GKP are not re-invoicing on these outstanding receivables, might account for slightly low cash level recently stated?

All good if exports restart soon and payment mechanism in place but not good if local sales continue.

"With declining production it would be a mistake to just multiply this by two as an estimate for the year but what the heck: $32 million versus NASA1's $137 million."

I'll go for doubling putup's and halving nasa1's figures - $64m or $68.5m, think that's nearer the mark even on local sales

Putup - Very good news on the $27-$29 for local sales holding through recent oil price slump though eh?

It's almost impossible to make assumptions imo as the production is down to supply and demand rather than the field materially dropping in capability.

June production will be down to Eid or something similar causing disruption to service.

Very similar to those price of oil predictions that were bandied about on here by some expert a few weeks ago, turns out to be nonsense but don't worry they will adjust those figures to suit.

My only slight was the $100m cash balance but guess that's down to what has been paid for and whether we're due a payment for production soon.

"I had assumed about a 25k bpd-for-a-month whack to production in November for the PF-2 shutdown. Now that's been deferred and yet production expectations remain the same. I'm having to mark down production expectations"

So that's about 2kbpd on a annualised basis, with guidance at 40-45kbpd, don't think any need for change in that regard.

Bearing in mind it's supply and demand.

"Field production capacity falling faster than originally anticipated."

Where do you get that from? Production is on a supply driven basis from what I'v e read.

All seems fine and on track to me.