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Postscript, today sp, fell to low of 3.75, so a stop of 3.79, would have triggered. On second thought. I would have revised the stop level, to standard deviation 3.82-ATR(average true range) 0.185=3.64-0.1#(1/2 x spread 0.2)=3.54. Alternatively Standard deviation- 2x ATR. It is important to check the spread, if much larger than ATR, stop requires to be further down, in which case maybe 3x ATR, or higher.
New high, and no overhead supply from previous trading to impede upward progress. However, sp, gave up 0.25, from friday new high, and negative divergence , in the RSI(relative strength index), implying possible short term price fall.
MTL, is in an uptrend, confirmed by the RSI, being above 50. A retracement would likely be contained within one standard deviation of volatility. The volatility based bollinger band, on Friday, would place one standard deviation, at 3.82, so a stop level to avoid even number, would be 3.79 or lower. DYOR.
Average true range is, 1.64, and equity spread is, 1.839. The ATR, represents the average equity movement over 14 days. It makes sense , when calculating a stop level, to ensure that normal daily movement, such as the spread does not activate the stop order. A multiple of the ATR, from the most recent sp, is advisable , example 2 x ATR, or 3x ATR. The RSI(Relative strength index), it provides decent, timed trend signals, currently above 50(trending up). If the RSI, falls, below 50, sell, but re-enter, if returns above 50, within a few days.
The new highest high for more than 2.5 years, is past the potential limitation(2 years) of overhead supply from previous trading, selling. With little resistance, the sp, can be expected to trend , with the usual price retracements.
The volatility based Bollinger bands, are separating, indicating high volatility. DYOR.
Apology, overhead supply figure 260, not 270. The big picture is a horizontal support line under the major troughs, and the upside down trendline. Upside potential, depends on the down trendline already mentioned being breached upward. DYOR.
JUST, has broken above major down trend line, which is bullish. Symmetry difference between sp, high and low, provided price target of 95.5. Today the sp, found support at retrace to 95, so this is positive for more upside. Conservative sp, target is eventually 150. Supporting sector positive increase today. DYOR.
Overhead supply from previous trading at 500 and 550. There is a falling down trend line at 550, which together with overhead supply, msy be expected to provide initial resistance to a rally.
The latest complete trading day , represents a Japanese spinning top candlestick, with the high and low of that trading day representing the levels at which RTO, can be expected to either rise further beyond the high , or fall below the low. Volatility based bollinger bands are separating, confirming higher volatility than normal.
The monthly chart , shows the high peak of July 2021, and subsequent low trough of January 2022, has contained most subsequent price action, prior to the breakout. This price pattern, suggests compression, indicating that there will be significant upward sp, movement. Measuring the July 2021 price peak to the January 2022 trough, gives two price projections, 305, based on close, and 365, based on high/low. The average price target is 335. DYOR.
Research by Investors Business daily, shows that overhead supply, resistance from previous trading, at a higher price level , diminishes after 18 months to 2 years. The October 2017, price gap, being nearly 6.5 years ago, and a multiple of more than 3 x the maximum 2 year limit for possible overhead resistance, has effectively expired potential for resistance.
5 year chart started at 355, slightly over double 175 offer, however fundamentals page, is discouraging, because there is no positive increment, in yearly accounts. There is negative dividend cover. More recent chart, showed some indication, of getting an overdue uptrend started. Whether this is a new competent directorship at the wheel, i do not know, or simply a sign of other interested parties, establishing an equity position, prior to dissecting DLG.
Volume, today is much heavier than normal, which confirms today rise as healthy.. However 10.0, is critical level, that the sp, requires to close above, for potential further rally. So will know near market closing today. Hold, if sp, can remain above 10.0. DYOR.
The famous expression regarding equities , is that a rising tide lifts all boats(equities). The same is true with the rally, in the precious metals sector. EEE, has rallied to the volatility based upper bollinger band, currently situated at 10.34. The Bollinger band contains 97% of sp, movement. In addition the current sp, today, 10.25, has reached overhead supply, from previous trading volume. The sp, would require to break above 11, to have much hope, of being worthwhile, so at current sp, EEE, is a sell.
FTSE100, was only market index, down this morning, so the only obvious thing that was affecting sentiment, was the forthcoming budget. Certainly not a vote of confidence, in the Chancellor. BATS, sp, is now in the region of January 2024, pivot lows, which might be expected to provide support. Having said that , the tobacco sector requires to get back above its 1/3/24, low price, which I have noted down in the Tobacco message page. The first day of each month constitutes a time pivot , from the high and low, that day. Basically if sector trades above high of first day, bullish, if below low of first day, bearish. DYOR.
Bear rally today was forecast, when top Bollinger band turned down on 28/2/24. Secular downtrend began 5/2/24, and current rally is likely to be stopped by overhead volume, from previous trading at the current rally price of 536.
The aerospace sector, has risen today, and the expression, "a rising tide lifts all boats", can mean that technically bearish equities , can be temporarily lifted , by the sector. Best to stay with the sector leaders.
Aerospace sector, is largest % riser, of only 6 sectors. The sector, today has crossed above its time pivot high range from 1/3/24, at 10067. The first day of the calendar month, often the provides the significant high and low price, from which subsequent trading, either heads higher, or lower. RR, is the largest % riser, and thus the leading equity, in the sector. As a matter of interest, the sector low on 1/3/24, was 9955.
Sp, broke above the three price highs , since December 2023. Also sector chart is moving up. Price target is 816, which is volatility based, top bollinger band position, which normally encompasses 97% of price. A fast movement is not expected because the top and lower bollinger bands are moving in the same direction, indicating moderate volatility. The average true range indicator value, or a multiplier of the value, set below the previous low of 799, might be useful as a stop order. DYOR.
I project volume today in region of 731,000, which would be lowest volume for 12 days. The current bottom formation, was commenced with a large measuring candle day, on 15/2/24, on heavy volume. Since the large measuring candle high was 392, perspective shows that today's rally, on very different light volume, does not constitute a breakout. The RSI(relative strength index) is still below 50, which means CBG, is technically still within an overall downtrend formation. Measuring bar bottom formations, often take 26 days or more to complete, so 12 days is more likely, the intervening rally before testing bottom again.