Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
“The best lithium deposits in Europe are in Portugal”, points out the co-founder of Northvolt, in an interview
https://expresso.pt/economia/economia_energia/2023-05-07-Os-melhores-depositos-de-litio-na-Europa-estao-em-Portugal-aponta-o-cofundador-da-Northvolt-em-entrevista-814997b9
CVN the US are certainly working proactively.
It's possible that Mary Jo Jacobi's (ex aide to US President Reagan) appointment to the board was no coincidence. It wouldn't be unusual for the US Embassy in Portugal to support developments where there may be an economic interest across the pond. In this case, SAV, a company which is facing a massive uphill struggle with public opinion, the US bring in a business strategist and comms specialist of MJJ's caliber to play her part in unlocking a multi billion industry.
I would say for sure that comms have improved since her appointment and Archer's departure of course!
Odds are much better than 50/50, APA approve 95% of projects with conditions. If we fall into the 5% government intervention is a possibility and it's worth recalling the whole point of the article 16 process was to close out issues. If it was a straight rejection we wouldn't have gone through that process.
It's worth recalling GALP (50% owner of Aurora) offered $6.4m for 10% of SAV back in January 2021 when spodumene was <$500/t. Even at a conservative $1000/t, plus the fact we will have an EIA decision no later than 6 weeks from today, the company is clearly undervalued so we may see take over offers from other companies post EIA.
Aurora Lithium and SAV are both members of the EIT Innoenergy project LiRef which is developing a novel electrochemical process for lithium.
SAV, Aurora plus CALB are using Quadrante Group (or it's subsidiary Ecoprogresso) for elements of their EIA. It seems logical to me that the three companies will come together at some point combining their data to create a full mine to battery decarb/net zero case study as the leading standard for Europe.
LiREF:
https://eitrawmaterials.eu/project/liref/
CALB PDA:
https://participa.pt/pt/consulta/pda-do-eia-da-unidade-industrial-de-baterias-de-litio
Aurora PDA:
https://participa.pt/pt/consulta/pda-do-eia-da-unidade-industrial-de-conversao-do-litio
EMH are far behind SAV on the EIA front. They have only done a preliminary document to which the Czech authority requested a long list of studies and further research. Also may be an issue with protected bird species. Nothing further has been submitted in nearly 2 years which is a red flag for me. At least with SAV we can see a huge effort on the EIA.
For disclosure I hold EMH as a speculative punt.
Link to EMH EIA submission;
https://portal.cenia.cz/eiasea/detail/EIA_MZP506?lang=cs
KC proved his incompetence around November 21, in interview he said positive EIA results were due in 2 weeks, he seemingly had no idea they hadn't submitted the EIA rather a preliminary document to which the Czech environment authority requested a raft of studies and additional information. Where is that now? According to the new presentation;
"Progress EIAs and permitting for mining and processing."
Not a single study or update in 18 months! KC gives the impression he's hoping EU will push through permitting rather than actually progressing anything. No wonder we've not seen much nes when the fundamentals are in abeyance.
1. As per APA's own site "Only a minority of evaluation processes (about 5%) lead to an unfavourable decision". The majority of decisions are "favoravel condicionada" aka approved with conditions.
https://rea.apambiente.pt/content/environmental-impact-assessment?language=en
2. Aurora Lithium's preliminary EIA submission for their proposed refinery was turned around ahead of schedule. Hopefully we will also come in ahead of the deadline.
https://participa.pt/pt/consulta/pda-do-eia-da-unidade-industrial-de-conversao-do-litio
3. Two other Portuguese lithium refineries are in the works. Lusorecursos, who have submitted their EIA currently following the same Article 16 process as SAV. Also Bondalti/Neometals who are at pre-feasibility stage.
https://participa.pt/pt/consulta/concessao-de-exploracao-de-depositos-minerais-de-litio-e-minerais-associados-romano
https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=1323-15431794-5QDL42FRF7FUU2R8OLII131OSL
4. CALB have an MoU to construct a Gigafactory in close proximity to Aurora's refinery
https://www.electrive.com/2022/11/04/calb-signs-mou-for-factory-in-portugal/
5. Portugal are lining up to tender a number of sites as identified on this map (yellow)
https://miningwatch.pt/mapadominerio/index.en.html
6. SAV are in good company! We may also benefit from 2nd mover advantage given Keliber will be implementing the LiRef technology at their facility this year so we may benefit from the lessons learned.
https://eitrawmaterials.eu/project/liref/
7. Keep an eye on the official APA site for updates ahead of the RNS. Also worth a look as a reminder of just how much work has gone into this EIA, and the fact we gave 3 mine options! This 4th attempt designed in consultation with APA must surely fit the bill. Lots of Portuguese text to translate but the drawings are quite useful to give you an idea.
https://siaia.apambiente.pt/AIA.aspx?ID=3353
8. Ahead of the CRMA and Net Zero Industry Act announced this week, Portugal had already began the process of simplifying EIA procedures.
https://www.consultalex.gov.pt/ConsultaPublica_Detail.aspx?Consulta_Id=261
9. SAV are partnered with GALP and others in the Portuguese battery value chain as part of a 915m euro project. A joint application for PRR funding has reached the final stage.
https://www.consultalex.gov.pt/ConsultaPublica_Detail.aspx?Consulta_Id=261
Seen reports from locals that DGEG (Portuguese Mining Authority) are in Canada promoting the lithium tender sites. Good old Linkedin confirms it
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7038198375854354432?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_feedUpdate%3A%28V2%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7038198375854354432%29
There's some big names at the event, Rio, Albemarle, BHP etc. Good to see they're promoting the tender as hopefully signals Portugal is soon to be open for business.
https://www.pdac.ca/
More leaks on Twitter suggesting EIA process and public consultation will be limited to 30 days for projects of common interest.
Very intriguing to see leaked EU documents and a significant rise in SAV share price. Wonder what those documents contain regarding Portugal and the Iberian battery value chain?
Tesla are progressing with Metso Outotec acid free Spod refinery. Look at Tesla's other off-takes and most are using Metso plant/equipment. If Elon thinks that's the best option in the near term we're in good company.
Metso along with SAV, Aurora, Northvolt are developing new processes as part of the LiRef project backed by the EBA. A potential global consortium in the making which can be robustly compared/contrasted as they'll be using the same processes +/- any geographic/chemistry variation.
Anyone able to bypass the paywall?
Looks like Northvolt promoting the benefits of operations in Skelleftea (Sweden) on the local population
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/auroralithium_na-gigafactory-sueca-onde-a-northvolt-est%C3%A1-activity-7036753708625334272-uPxi?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
Article 16 (A16) allows for a 10 day public consultation. Assuming the decision to pursue A16 was an attempt to hold APA to account against the applicable law, I'd like to hope we're okay.
Will check if the 10 days has to be within the 50 when I get home tonight.
Interesting publication by WWF last year,
"Minas do Barroso can be considered the nerve center of the whole process of the beginning of the race to Lithium in Portugal. Not only because it is the most advanced, but also because it could create a pattern of government policy decision in the next decade."
"Although Portugal started with the left foot in the race to the Lithium, the ANP|WWF considers that it is still possible for the country and the rest of Europe to become a benchmark for the entire lithium supply chain worldwide. The EU, through the European Green Deal, must lead this process of responsible mining and ensuring that the entire value chain complies with international best practices rather than assuming by default that their environmental rules and social aspects applicable to mining are better than outside the EU. Although there are already several moves in the industry to move towards self-regulation and self-certification, the ANP|WWF considers that it is fundamental, on the one hand, the EU Member States create transparent and participatory mechanisms for granting prospecting licenses and granting lithium mining, but also at the same time they must create environmental and social quality certification monitoring processes along the lithium supply chain."
Also shows Fortescue's prospecting application was for Macedo de Cavaleiros and Mirandela e Vinhais which are only 2 hours east of Boticas.
https://wwfeu.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/litio_pt__2_.pdf