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The deal looks unlikely to be derailed. The value potential for CRS TODAY isn’t reliant upon the deferred consideration.

HUR holders disappointment at the deal isn’t relevant to contemporary purchasers of CRS shares…

My post says: “This without attributing anything for the HUR “deferred consideration units”

Couldn’t be clearer. Who is being a “bit naughty”…?

@easyp - that is my analysis too. Buyers of CRS at today’s price c.80p are getting exposure to >110p of assets, with a significant portion of their acquisition price likely to be returned to them in the near future. This without attributing anything for the HUR “deferred consideration units”.

Some of the “uncertainty discount” applied to CRS will likely be unwound if this goes through as indicated, so this could be a decent speculative opportunity for those open-eyed as to the risks involved.

Some very literal responses, but ANGS clearly needs more radical thinking to get the SP moving. Can the business be turned around by buying gas to pump INTO Saltfleetby, and reporting this to Mercuria as negative production so they have to pay us under the hedge? ;>

The storage idea is intriguing …. Rather than extract the gas and then refillling the reservoir for storage, wouldn’t it be cheaper/easier just to leave the existing gas in situ….?

Asking for a friend obvs… ;>

Interesting response @Echo1.

What makes the number of shares in issue relevant to whether or not a takeover might occur…?

I was being a bit of a tease…

The key to Q&A statement is the bit about “…(if) present gas prices hold around current levels…”. If this happens then the NPV’d liability under the derivatives contracts will diminish materially with the net movement reported as an operating profit so reducing the £139m of accumulated losses.

Once the combination of genuine profit from gas sales plus “accounting profit” from the reduction in the NPV’d derivative liability cover the debt and the £139m of accumulated losses reported as at 30/9/22 ANGS will indeed be able to pay dividends.

Perversely if gas prices increase materially then ANGS will generate more genuine profit from ongoing gas sales BUT the liability under the derivatives contracts (& thus its accumulated losses) will stay high, preventing the payment of a dividend. Crazy, but that’s the way the accounting rules work...

@tony_currie, ANGS will have to generate at least £139m of profit before it is able to pay a dividend…

When? Largest trade reported so far today is just £20k…

I think the science day audience are (still!) looking for more commercial information alongside the science.

I understand fully that that Avacta is developing a therapeutic platform and that AVA6k may - in the end - be just one clinical/commercial expression of its utility. But mainstream II's (the "real" II's every company wants to have on board) won't invest on the basis of "It works and the commercial opportunity for the platform is massive". They will view AVA6k as proof-of-concept, and they will invest only when they understand what is required to bring it to market. They will be looking for guidance on:

- the remaining hurdles (trials, approvals etc) that must be cleared to bring AVA6k to market
- the resources required (£££, time etc) to bring AVA6k to market
- the commercial opportunity (addressable market, potential pricing/margins etc) for AVA6k

So I am inclined to agree with those critical of Avacta’s comms approach and execution. The company can - and should - do better. As a few posters have pointed out, comms isn’t THAT hard to fix. Positive changes can take effect quite quickly and I hope the company is on the case. But this is not about comms with highly-engaged PI’s seeking RNS’s on the minutiae of trials etc. Rather it is about the company’s approach to the institutional investors needed to fund commercialisation or to drive positive price action in the secondary market. My sense is that Dr Smith and his senior colleagues are wary of outlining anything regarding £££ and time; perhaps justifiably so given their past experiences! But setting out objectives and expectations is a necessary part of a company's corporate story. If they wish to attract institutional capital - either in the primary or secondary market sense - they will need to overcome their fears and set out more regarding the path to commercialisation.

Without additional II engagement + capital AVCT won’t escape the cycle of optimistic pumping and bedraggled deflation that it currently inhabits. We have seen what one poster described eloquently as the “elastic limit” to the SP when it is being driven by the breathless retail rampers so popular here and on twitter. Whilst well-intended their actions remain counterproductive, a meaningful disincentive to rational investors.

Peering through all of this though, the underlying prospects for Avacta and its shareholders remain strong. Everything we hear about the science seems to meet or exceed the expectations of the posters here with relevant professional knowledge. Whilst the debate in valuation threads is of variable quality, most contributors seem to agree that multiples of the present MCap are achievable. Shares are trading at a 30%+ premium to the most recent raise, and the company is comfortably funded for its current activities. A motivated trade-buyer (better still two in competition!) could arrive at any point. Many pre-commercialisation businesses would love to have such a report card...

Thank you! I appreciate the clarity you bring to this.

Ok/thanks. I had looked at that, but could only see "Gas sales REVENUE less SWAP LOSS at Saltfleetby to 31st March inc £9,933,550" which I took to be a figure from the start of production. Is that correct?

Without wanting to create work for you(!) I'm trying to get a discrete figure for q1 2023. Do you have this?

Thanks for this @gallder.

What do your figures show for "GAS SALES PROFIT" for q1 2023..?

Surely no-one really thinks that DELT will "...go into production"...!?

The companies stated strategy is: Identify. Explore & Appraise. Monetise. Repeat.

There are only 8 employees including the 4 directors. I don't think any of them will be working in the wet, dark and cold of an offshore rig..!

Price action this morning is anomalous. MM's doing their best to encourage interest - what's the opposite of a "tree shake"..? It's enough of a move for there to be awkward questions to answer if anything more concrete emerges.

Long-suffering holders here haven’t yet been rewarded for their patience! With the known reserves, existing flows and the vast majority of the sidetrack drilling/commissioning risk in the rear-view mirror, 1.8p looks like a great buy-in price to me….

Good work @Singhie.

I think you can/should use 10mmscf/d for your forecast btw. Still conservative and perfectly well supported by RNS’d info.

Some persevere over an extended period and get the outcome they want.

Others persevere but are ultimately disappointed. Don’t be bitter @WG818.

@Singhie - thank you for keeping these coming. Can you help me make sure I understand your post(s) properly? I have a few questions:

1. 5.0992p is your forecast SP in 12 months time…?
2. “Debt Outstanding = £-“ means that the all companies current debts will have been satisfied in 12m time, using the retained revenues from production…?
3. “12Mth Rev-Debt = £35,532,001.20” is the amount of debt repaid over the 12m to Mar/Apr 2024…?
4. What do you mean by “Responsible Debt Repayment Plan”…?
5. Why did you choose 5x for your PE Factor…?

Thanks in advance.

It’ll be interesting to see if any larger trades were marked for delayed reporting after close.

At least two of those are Buys. This I know for certain.

They are marked as sells by LSE's primitive algorithm because trade reports were delayed by one hour, during which time the price rose so they were on the bid side of the quoted spread at the time of reporting.