The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
@Schrodingerscat not a chance! TLW is under a lot of pressure financially and divi would do more harm than good at this stage. The priority should be debt reduction and adding 2P reserves.
@Schrodingerscat not a chance! TLW is under a lot of pressure financially and divi would do more harm than good at this stage. The priority should be debt reduction and adding 2P reserves.
@seakingalpha personally, not a fan of takeovers, especially those involving debt-laden companies that are trading below their assets valuation. Shareholders hardly ever benefit in such situations and I don't want Tullow to be consumed. I disagree with your view on the tender offer that the low % take up is "the proof" because they'll have to buy it anyway or maybe you meant that Tullow oil is not running out of cash, that I understand. However, I don't get what prevented them from buying back more bonds during the summer at almost half the nominal value?
You're defending Rahul, saying that he is the right man for the job but I hardly see any progress under Rahul & his team, such as a new acquisition or exploration success. Anyone could run Jubilee and pay back a small chunk of debt at a time of record high oil prices. This whole situation reflects on the SP, sentiment is negative at the moment and TA is pointing down all the way to 21 after the double top. The only way to break this short pattern is positive news.
"Really can't see myself continuing to hold beyond H1 next year if we're still this price."
You've got to be kidding, the biggest promoter of Tullow wearing rose-coloured glasses is losing now faith. I think if you sell even Kenya will become a possibility...
Has anyone managed to add below 119? I missed the spike
Short closing should move the price up. Otherwise, they'd be closing in chunks making more profit along the way and this is just too good to be true. On the contrary, opening a large short could lead to such spikes as it momentarily creates a much larger stack that needs to be bought to maintain the balance.
I'm very worried about the wedge that formed since 1 November (see 1h and 4h time frames). We've had a break out (to the downside) and re-test of 109~110 level this evening. Textbook stuff so far... However, gold and silver are flying at the minute, buyers are strong and may break the bearish pattern on Monday.
Scrodingerscat, risk goes up with debt maturity deadline approaching and we should be fine for 2025, hopefully with more money coming from oil than Glencore facility. My point is that the SP is depressed so much because TLW is considered a very high risk by most analysts. It only takes a 5 min google search to see that the majority of them think that our debt is not properly covered by future cash generated from oil. The oil prices are already high so the only way to derisk is to increase production. As much as Anton is irritated, it is a game of averages, as progress is assessed over a long distance. Since Rahul's appointment the production has declined (audited numbers on the balance sheet) and so has the stock price. He keeps saying things are looking better now and we've all hoped the SP could gain some momentum but maybe IIs and large buyers want to see the proof.
Not irrelevant by any means, I'm just trying to answer the question on what the current value is pinned to, it's all about the revenue and free cash. You see, if you were right, the SP would have been 90p (just a wild guess but a lot higher than this). You can come back to this post when the reported figure for an extended time period (half or full year) would be 70k + AND then compare the stock price. Most LTHs buy when they can see facts, not just Rahul's promises.
"I would like to know what the current value is pinned to, because the company is clearly buying up debt with cash it's generating as they haven't drawn the Glencore facility."
It has to be viewed together on the time axis. As the deadline is approaching, TLW will need to find another 500m in one and a half years, and then the 2026 comes with another large chunk. It's some challenge with the AVERAGE 2023 production in mid or high 50s. We need to up the production into the 70s bopd next year but I agree that MCAP is silly for $1,75bn revenue.
Oil up TLW down.
Let's see what tomorrow brings. An update may not help if it's another red day. I don't get why the overall trend is down to be honest, some would say the EPL is to blame but HBR is financially stable and does not have any short term commitments where a certain amount of profit would be critical in the rising interest rate environment. The oil is here to stay for the next couple of decades so what weighs on the SP?
Hey J.Bond. Just out of interest, what is the minimum position for bond purchase (e.g. what was it in Tullow's case) and where/how can you buy those?
Hi Sotolo, looking good also from the TA view point. We've found support at ~108 and the RSI had a bit of time to "cool down", so the indicator is not around maxima on 1h or 4h charts. This supports a higher move up to ~117-118 level in the near term.
@Murphy UT is done and dusted after every trading session for each and every stock out there, not sure what you mean by referring to past uncrossing trades.
Interesting. 38,50 was way below the bid so it must be a sell for such a large order, if the time is correctly displayed.
Break out on Monday or is there still time?
"God damn! This is the most boring stock in the world!"
would be nice to expand the mid-term trading range a bit, say 200 - 300
Looking at the chart, we need to break out of 40 - 42 area of strong resistance, which should open the road to 50. Can the SP punch through 40? I'll be watching this closely over the next couple of weeks.