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Well done! However, claiming that you have special knowledge, always spot on and everyone else is a fool is a bit naive. I can explain where the 39p sell idea comes from without magic or "special knowledge". If you look at the chart, the SP was rejected from 39,80 in September 2023 (on the previous approach). Also, prior to that when 40p support was broken late in 22, we then re-tested 39p from below in January 23. Historically, 40p has seen increased volumes and acted as support in September 21 and in July 22. Moreover, 39p was in play during corona in June 2020 as a major resistance to the initial recovery move. As you can see, calling 39p sell when the stock is overbought with RSI peaking on large time frames is not more special than calling the green zero, if you know how casinos make their money.
Please don't forget to remind everyone that you called a sell at 39p. Last night I called the green zero in roulette and over the course of the evening it landed there! It's a better call that your 39p put since Tullow's SP doesn't have such a wide range.
Bears have turned 30p into resistance and there will be large sells as we approach the 30p mark, that's normal.
Harsh as usual with Marshalls. The revenue was let down by new build housing. Despite that,
- the company is still profitable
- our new CEO, Matt Pullen did not sugar-coat things because he has to show progress
- net debt is down
- they expect an increase in revenue in H2
Big players may prefer selling if they sense weakness and potential in a short trade.
Don't see how it makes them interested in the SP, as free vinegar is sweeter than honey!
Same here, out for now. I'd like to put Sotolo's theory to the test that you can always buy it cheaper :)
Let's be honest, it was almost certain that divis won't be reinstated just yet. In 2024 sorting out the debt is high up on the list.
-7% is not the reaction I was expecting
Won't be surprised by anything in this day and age. At least Tullow is not alone in it and if unsuccessful, I fully expect the government to take the largest hit, then Total and Africa Oil Corp. are in it too. Even if chances are slim, it shows the attitude towards any oil and infrastructure development in that region. If the FDP will not be approved by the end of August I really wish that we just leave Kenya for good. Some of you may disagree but it's been a decade of pouring money into Kenya and look where the SP is.
The headlines of some African news outlets from last week, where Turkana residents filed in a case against Kenyan gov. and Tullow oil claiming $2bn in compensation. What are your thoughts?
125 seems to be a reasonable near term target if 108 holds
£100m buys 20% of all shares. If Rahul thinks that debt is under control, it could be an important step for long term returns. They can do it in a clever way, e.g. only buy back below a certain price. That puts the floor on the stock and discourages short selling, and also, we know that we're getting very good value for money.
Hello @Woodster, Tony's probably looking at some TA indicators, such as RSI, where on smaller time frames we are in the overbought territory. Believe it or not, I sold my entire HBR holding in December just 2 hours before the RNS dropped late in the afternoon and the SP surged by 40% in the same trading session, and that's after holding for months... so I'm very cautious with Hochschild and wouldn't sell purely based on TA ahead of next week's presentation. #notAdvice
The 2023 results are out next week and our new CEO will present his vision for Hochschild. 109 seems to be too cheap to sell, imv.
The SP dropped from 38p because our revenue shrank and the company made a loss. You could estimate it from January's trading update... I reckon that share buyback is highly improbable while the balance sheet is showing a loss and while the debt remains high. On the positive side, the production at Jubilee is over 100k bopd.
Thank you! :D
Gold just crossed 2100 USD / OZ. WOW!
Why is HOC still below 100?
Rahul has mentioned that there are about 12 oil deliveries per year and from my understanding the revenue depends on the spot price of oil on the day. Does anyone know when these deliveries take place? (Should be roughly 1 delivery per month) Who is the receiver, which port?
Mr Buffett came up with his theory many decades ago on a bull market with a huge potential for businesses with a simple model. The "impatient" took small profits and he profited in a long run. Our situation here has nothing to do with patience, FRES is a bearish stock in a bear market. Today's SP is lower than it was at the time of IPO some 15 years ago.