RE: Buying on a dip.14 Jun 2024 17:12
I’ve topped up my holdings twice in the past month but unfortunately the share price continues to decline. I don’t believe it will last much longer, given the very optimistic comments published with the Final results back on March 19th (see below). The management seemed very positive and hopefully their optimism will be translated into solid growth when the next update is published, which I suspect will be late July.
Current trading and outlook
· Strong bookings and margin performance is continuing into 2024, despite lower commodity market environment.
· Expect to deliver organic growth of c. 50% in FY24 despite lower commodity prices:
o £520m contracted revenue at end of 2023 for FY24 delivery (2022: £247m for FY23), plus strong bookings momentum and further non-contracted book.
o Board targets significant market-share growth (from current 1.4%).
· The Board targets over 25,000 smart meters owned by the end of 2024 to provide benefits on customer lifecycle value, together with a recurring, index-linked, annuity income of c.£1m per annum.
· Strong profitability expected as the Group benefits from its well-hedged commodity position; investment in digital; expansion of smart meters; and service-led market positioning.
· Very strong operational cash generation forecasted for FY24, from EBITDA conversion to cash and the working capital benefits of the new trading agreement with Shell.
· Board confirms the intent to progressively increase dividend distribution, in a sustainable manner, as earnings grow whilst maintaining at least 3x cover on EPS in the short to medium term.