The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Going to get strategically interesting in the next couple of days / weeks if (when) the Inflation Reduction Act gets passed (hopefully today?).
As if there wasn’t one already, this would be a clear sign for long term copper and the need for mines for next 20-30+ years and provide green light for large scale mining investment.
Time to get your cheque book out AA.
This is edging closer as well:
https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/senate-passes-climate-tax-inflation-bill-renewable-energy-51659900714
Wow, you’d think that CB just declared 1mt. What a difference a week (does / doesn’t) make.
After lots of talk on BB about phase 3 and the initial scope, this has been outlined (thank you CB). Other than that, it’s all much of a much and in line with expectations.
The reduced risk (and therefore value) of the gold crown(s) should not be underestimated - especially in current climate and given any loans are only going to get more expensive in the course of the next couple of years! Speed of paying back a loan with a high density crown will be…. worth its weight in gold (sorry, long day)
Don’t get me wrong, it is frustrating that the model was pushed back, but I’d planned to give it until post AGM before venting (maybe even half year update) and I’m expecting more clarity over the coming weeks and maybe even a model or two.
At $50k-$100k coming into the coffers per week, sit back and chill. CB is a master of stories and I’m sure one will be constructed when the time is right, maybe you’ll even see a big bus with $100k per week plastered down the side of it parked up outside the AGM.
I suspect we’ll see models and news of gold flowing through shortly to try and break the 8.4p mark. If we do then we’re onto two drills for phase 3. Otherwise, it will be 1000’s of cuts and another year of drilling.
Only negative bit that I took away from today is Footrot wasn’t in phase 3 outline, so unless there’s a chunk of gold in assays, I’m not holding out much hope for Footrot (hoping to be proved wrong)
If this gets through, this will really kick copper off as well:
https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/07/29/surprise-climate-deal-could-be-the-most-significant-in-us-history-says-joe-biden
Always good to reflect on how this point has been reached, how much extra drilling in Australia has gone on with a tightly controlled budget? Any project has a balance of speed, quality, budget and safety - personally I think it’s spot on and has performed exceptionally, loads more done than expected and all options explored.
The end game (for Bushranger) is in sight.
Drill(s) at Bushranger have stopped, the kitty is getting bigger by the week - even running Fairbride at 50% should put $50k into the pot each week and this will improve the closer we get to October. Very few small cap miners in that position.
Model for racecourse is in the process of being completed, now the expedited assay results are back (keep saying this, think about why this was done??).
Ascot and Footrot to follow (Sept /Oct) as they’ll need a lot less work going into sale, won’t have full on JORC and will add as potential extras (unless cracking results come out, then I could see phase 3 drilling, funded by cash build and rolling funds)
Fairbride coming into full production Sept / Oct time + further exploration there.
When you look at the time frames for Bushranger and the recent steps, it’s massively pointing to Sept / Oct (CB also gave commodity dates as Sept / Oct).
Of course, I’ll be reading this wrong and probably reading too much into decision process - maybe the lab just came to the Final racecourse samples first in the warehouse!?
If there’s more than 2mt, could you declare 1.9mt by messing around with the cut off at Racecourse, don’t declare Ascot / Footrot and keep on drilling.
Once you finished drilling / happy with everything, revisit the 1.9mt and declare the lot?
Why the queue jumpers? (Should have had 49 + 52 back).
Looks like the labs were pressed to finish off Racecourse first and then complete Footrot / Ascot result afterwards.
Something to prove / prioritise? Given we’re on single drill now, it’s not that causing the sequence issue.
Notice has been served, Racecourse numbers can drop whenever and there was a clear choice to do this.
By the time the owner of Bushranger has got to the lower grades (10+ years), the average lower grades will be mineable.
https://xtractresources.com/wp-content/uploads/XTR-Presentation-14.10.2021.pdf
Page 11 shows the gradual decline in grades over the years, it doesn’t overlap the requirement for additional copper over the next 20-30 years, this will push the average mineable percentages even lower as miners chase whatever they can get their hands on with higher copper prices.
0.15 is workable (long term). Obviously, all in my opinion, hence why I’m here. Just don’t want to wait for 10+ years to find out if I’m right!
Why September / October? I don’t buy the China inflation idea.
Not so much they bounce in commodity prices (long time price discussions already done on BB), but more to do with awaiting assay results and ensuring we’re not giving a deep gold (copper) porphyry away.
Current holes being drilled deep into Ascot should get their assay results back by then. Given this is gold at grams per tonne, they’ll need to wait for confirmation. We’ll also get Footrot back by then as well.
Bushranger is on its side and spills over into Ascot, but the grades decrease the closer it gets to Ascot. Ascot could be vertical and overlapping with Bushranger, causing the confusion.
With Faitbride now up and running, CB not worried about share price and waiting to issue Racecourse model, I’m in the 2mt+ club (across whole of Racecourse). CB and team have more or less finished the wrapping of the present and put the bow on it, they’re now searching for the gift receipt to make sure they don’t give too much away.
I’m expecting a quiet July / August and then a building of the story and lots of news from then onwards. With enough will and drive from both sides, this could still go through by Christmas…. not saying what year ;)
Pretty much all on the BB know this already:
https://www.northernminer.com/news/copper-prices-company-valuation-multiples-too-low-for-sufficient-supply-response-analyst-says/
If it takes three years, it takes three years, but there’s clearly a huge copper gap and the only way to respond will be higher prices.
Based on Lucky’s graphs from this morning, should kick in a lot sooner ie this Winter!
Cheers Flipper, I’ve never really thought about it like that. No idea when it’ll pick up, that’s the joy of investing. Few key aspects that I’m looking out for:
Chinas National Congress and potential exit from zero covid.
NATO countries working out that it might be a good idea to invest in alternative / green ways of getting energy and moving away from oil / gas dependency as quickly as possible.
Suspect it’ll be towards end of 2022 for these.
Great report to get your heads around the scale of what’s coming down the track
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2022
Copper price has dropped off for the past 30 years during recessions and people will trade off this basis. But given the huge investment in electricity that’s coming, it won’t last and will have to start tracking up.
Recent RNS shows the closure of optionality:
Racecourse to Ascot - closed
Footrot - drilled
Ascot deep - being tested
Feels to me like that’s a full house.
If Ascot does go deep or Footrot has high grades, then more drilling could be required, otherwise jobs a good one - but at least we’ll know.
Given the drills are always a couple of weeks ahead, Ascot should have completed the first deep drill by now. But unless they hit changes in mineralisation and a new porphyry, I’m not expecting any announcements for a while as they’ll need to wait for assay gold grades.
Deeper Ascot holes has kept me going, following the spires down into the cathedral. Really glad these are underway.
Suspect we’ll then get a wrap it up and sell or carry on with funding from Manica coming easily on board - Sept/Oct time.
Great posts today Steve, that’s pretty much where my heads at. No mad rush to sell in current climate, if we’ve got the funds and budget, keep on at it and explore / expand the optionality - but communicate with shareholders if this is the new direction!
Whilst we’ve had news recently, it’s certainly not been the consistency / frequency of the past couple of years, with lots of holes / feedback / IP / drill locations missing and news we have had clearly contradicts what CB said in interviews earlier in the year about state of play with project.
This coupled with general market conditions and falling copper prices is pushing price down and it’ll probably keep going (much as I hate to say it!)
Cheers Andrew, that’s a really good listen after yesterdays pain (or joy if you’ve been buying in!)
Focusses me on why I’m in and why, at some point Bushranger is going to be worth a lot of money to someone.
Foundations are all set now, CB and team just need to build the story again.
Cheers everyone, appreciate input and kicking ideas around. Medium to long term and with the continuing global decline of copper grades + increasing demand (post recession) its all good.
Very short term, we’ve got to be about there on final results? FOMO Friday for a Monday release?