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Factored in only UK for now. Very easy to get carried away with how big this can go, but trying to keep those feet on the ground for now until we know manufacturing capacity which imo will get revealed this week as the rollout begins. But quietly confident as previously Al has said theyve been in talks with Asia and also more recently Europe.
I personally see the big money in white labelling the tests. Important to look at what is on the market in the USA right now and their price tag. A good test is selling for over $30. If we can get royalties of 10-15% for that, we're absolutely laughing.
Also wise to remember that the USA Gov at the back end of last year announced they have a warchest $75billion for testing and tracing. Huge amount and dwarfs the UK £8b tender. Also they announced a $232m contract to Ellume for 8.5m tests but was only 100k tests per month initially and the USA Gov was upscaling manufacturing in order to get 19m tests a month by the end of this year. Volume wise is still peanuts vs the demand.
What would they do with an Avacta test that is beating everything on the market?!
Broker note stated would be £7 a test and would get 30% margin.. So lets assume the broker note is correct.
5m a month is £420m rev / £126m profit a year.. (Pretty much supports our current share price in itself).
Now theres been several sources say about the supply chain is going to produce 2m cassettes a day for Avacta (scaling up over the near future), so lets bump that up to the 2m a day additional capacity, so:
65m a month is £5,46billion rev a year / £1,638b profit a year.
Now calculate that vs our market cap, looking at £21.50 share price ish just based on the LFD alone, excluding everything else.
Then throw in a PE value of 2. Why not even throw in 10% for royalties by white labelling the test abroad..
The figures start getting insane and many many multiples of where we are at today.
Alastair made no mistake when he said:
"Avacta will become a multi-billion-dollar life sciences company competing globally with the likes of Roche-Genentech, Thermo-Fisher and Abbott". They are valued at around 200billion market cap each. We're just shy of 700 million at 275p.
Massive buy right now if you consider the LFD can add significant value onto the business and we're not even touching the rest of our current partnerships nor AVA6000 etc.
It's a good test but nowhere near the standard of Avactas.
Their test sample was the Nasopharyngeal swabs, so the brain tickler. Innova was shown in a real life setting as low as 40% because people wouldn't perform it correctly.
Avacta standout winner and this has just confirmed it. Buzzing! Enjoy your weekend and bring on Tuesday!
Crazy undervalued right now, feel that the market is only expecting 5m a month. But as said before from trusted sources will be getting at 2m+ a day which ties in perfectly with what the DPS said back in Feb with a spend of up to £10b a YEAR.
Broker note stated would be £7 a test and would get 30% margin.. So lets assume the broker note is correct.
5m a month is £420m rev / £126m profit a year.. (Pretty much supports our current share price in itself).
Now lets bump that up to the 2m a day additional capacity, so:
65m a month is £5,46billion rev a year / £1,638b profit a year.
Now calculate that vs our market cap, looking at £21.50 share price ish just based on the LFD alone, excluding everything else.
Then throw in a PE value of 2. Why not even throw in 10% for royalties by white labelling the test abroad..
The figures start getting insane and many many multiples of where we are at today.
Alastair made no mistake when he said:
"Avacta will become a multi-billion-dollar life sciences company competing globally with the likes of Roche-Genentech, Thermo-Fisher and Abbott". They are valued at around 200billion market cap each.
Cheers Space, very intrigued with it. Looks more like a longer term hold given the interview last week with drills towards the end of the year, so most likely something can slice some Avacta profits into it after AVA6000 to help diversify the portfolio.
Actually found out about Avacta from a post on the Open Orphan (Orph) board last year so everything helps and now are my 2 biggest holdings.
ATB!
@GKB47
Regarding the saliva, worth listening to what he said yesterday. It works but has been put to one side due to Gov and end point users eventually having problems with saliva, due to what you've drank or eaten. Remember the foreign MPs putting a can of coke on a test strip and it coming back positive? Too much contamination for saliva to work in a real life setting. He also said that since it works they can use it for other uses rather than covid (more to come). There has been lots of published documents in recent months saying how unreliable saliva is as a sample method anyway, so nasal is the best.
Regarding the breath test, thats not our test, its just our affimers in it. DVRG have said it works excellently and the affimers are brilliant. However they need to change things like the size of the machine they were planning on using to make it more consumer friendly. The CEO has also hinted massively that its undergoing PD validation.
Regarding validating against other tests, that will come in due course. But you also have to remember that Innova is a brain tickler and a throat swab, how many people will correctly do it? Theres been papers published saying could be as low as 40% on the S/S, very high user error rate. Anterior nasal will be much more user friendly.
British made, Gov get a good media hype with UK jobs being created, money staying inside the UK, tax the companies, so get money back from it. Massive win win situation.
Would suggest emailing the press instead, more likely to appear in the papers and once hits the press, the pressure is on as local newspapers and stations start picking up on it. More likely to get a question at the 5pm conference then too!
Some links I've sent info to before.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/investigations/contact-us/
Independent:
If you have a story you think we might be interested to know about please email our news team at newsdesk@independent.co.uk or phone 020 7005 2000 and ask to be put through to the Independent Newsdesk.
Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/community/2015/sep/02/guardianwitness-send-us-a-story
ISO stated as will definitely happen in April, and once that is done, its easy to CE mark it which will be early May. Given we have a bank holiday weekend start of May, theres only 6 trading days until the 4th. Once this happens, its very easy to start getting those licensing deals abroad and get royalties for a white label test from companies who can mass manufacture this at scale (looking at USA etc).
Right now it looks like everyone who is in is mostly already fully invested, and its just trading the ascending triangle for now.
Most importantly we are creating higher lows all the time, good churn with some slicing and new investors entering which helps create a higher base.
This is possibly one of the easiest stocks to hold, just sit on your hands and let it all play out. Believe in your research and have conviction in your holding!
Yeah, 100% a buy. Bid vs ask was wrong at the time, hence every trade showing as a sell. All the buys are 260+ and the sells are 259 max. Would be impossible to shift that volume so high as well.
Absolutely classic. Investors coming over from BRH board who today are VERY nervous about their own investment with the crook that is Trevor Brown, who lies and lies on everything (check RMS and other past involvements).
And you said yourself "Our product will be the most 'in demand' test device for the next 10 years globally...the competition is extremely poor.". That test won't even scratch the surface. Avacta is miles better and will be the go to test.
Today has derisked the investment completely, and confirms that no further dilution will ever be needed for the other sides of the business.
There's telegram groups for nearly every AIM stock, so Orph is no different. Some won't like it as haven't got time to read through all the messages, but for some others in particular its been a place where theres a real sense of community and has even acted as a support group for some who were really struggling during the lockdowns. Of course theres a lot of chat in them, likewise with every other Telegram group, thats just how they are. But theres only ever been 1 person removed from the group for being abusive to another member and hearing both sides is equally as important so its not an echo chamber. Each platform have their own place anyway, its a platform where can easily post charts or live data of L2, or just general Orph related chat. Like one of the members in there is currently over half way through the RSV trial at the new facility and has been getting bits of info from the nurses etc. Just comes down to personal preference if you prefer a bulletin board or want something more engaging
removed the space to join:
https://t.
me/joinchat/UEckO71bt-_T3tDj
Oh yeah haha, so used to us being much lower. 43.5* when the ask was 43 at the time. NT to buy with lots of demand pushing us up. About to tick up again :)
Had a 374k buy in auction well over the asking price which was wanted at 33.5 (matched at 33.4). Been relentless buying here, clearly an insto loading up big time. Seeing BERB push us up with 440k+ time and time again. Invesco down to under 1% now imo, shifting 1.2m every 0.5p still, but being helped with some massive buyers.
Market finally clocking on to what we have? Been a long wait, but its finally coming together.
Yes Mikelma, send them an email or call them up, ask for DMA for AIM stocks. Theres a small monthly fee for it to get access to the AIM stocks and they need to activate it their side, but its well worth it.
And regarding posting about Invesco, I was just helping to explain how things have changed with a change in MM whos in charge of doing the selling. Confirming that we won't be retracing like before when CFEP was doing it. Being managed very well, and once they're gone, theirs literally nothing holding us back from a much bigger rise
Afternoon, hope everyone is well and enjoying their ISA top ups!
Regarding Invesco, they've been selling through STFL rather than CFEP the past few weeks, and STFL are managing the sell off much better and won't drop the ask at all compared to CFEP. So once they have upped the ask, they havent been reversing it!
Seeing about 1-2m shares at each pence being shifted before they tick up on the ask. A couple of days last week they were on the ask all the time on good volume days, imo we're close to about 2% left now
Was a 300k and a 700k reload from them this morning that was taken out, and right now they have another 956k left at 35.25 (once again well over 1m not long ago), before theyll tick it up again.
Volume is currently at 5.4m so the churn is good and taking big chunks into them.
Yes correct "£4m contracts last year, now we're quoting them £20m contracts"
Worth watching. Virolens needs a machine, and when you watch how it works, it will take much longer to get results. While good, it wont impact our LFD at all.
https://youtu.be/o0d8yASXv1o
That's incorrect.
That's from 2016, They had 15m capacity then with 30ksquare ft. Then in 2019 they expanded to 120k square ft, but haven't updated the new capacity.
Also worth noting well into last year that Al said that could get 8-10m easily from BBI/ABDX alone a month, long before further expansions with any scaling up
Fantastic news this morning for us. They'll be generating Mologics test & they'll also he producing Gov contracted antigen tests (now clearly us given what we know over the past few weeks in particular)
The Company's production capacity will be used to fulfil demand across a range of lateral flow tests:
· VISITECT® branded COVID-19 lateral flow antigen tests - now CE marked and being launched in April as noted above
· COVID-19 Lateral flow antigen tests - under contract for the UK Government (as announced on 11 February 2021)