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Oil Jumps on Possibility of Israeli Attack on Iran
By Irina Slav - May 21, 2025, 12:47 AM CDT
Crude oil prices have significantly risen due to reports of a potential Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, as indicated by US intelligence.
The possibility of an Israeli strike threatens to disrupt current US-Iran negotiations aimed at a new nuclear deal, potentially leading to a broader Middle Eastern conflict.
There are varying perspectives within the US government regarding the likelihood of Israel following through with an attack, with the final decision potentially dependent on the outcome of Trump's negotiations with Iran.
Tehran
Crude oil prices rose sharply earlier today following reports on Tuesday that Israel had plans to attack Iranian nuclear facilities.
At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $66.37 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $62.56 per barrel, after CNN reported late on Tuesday that new intelligence obtained by the U.S. suggested the Israeli government was considering strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
“Such a strike would be a brazen break with President Donald Trump,” CNN reported, citing U.S. officials. The news comes amid negotiations on a new nuclear deal between Washington and Tehran that President Trump appears eager to seal and Iran is not opposed to the idea, either.
Yet a direct strike on Iran from Israel will wreak havoc on these negotiations and increase the risk of a broader Middle Eastern conflict yet again. This would in turn threaten to affect oil supply, triggering higher benchmark prices.
The threat of an escalation between Israel and Iran offset bearish news for oil such as the weekly inventory report of the American Petroleum Institute, which showed a build of 2.5 million barrels, and the news that Kazakhstan once again overproduced despite its OPEC+ quota. In May, the Central Asian country booked a 2% increase in oil output despite pressure from Saudi Arabia to fall in line.