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On Monday and then settle around bd the 2p level short term.

It would never be at a premium for a company like BPC or realistically any company. Placings usually priced at -1.5%to-3.5% to the share price for a solid company. For a company like BPC 10-15% discount is more realistic.

Wrong. MMs do know such things.

Thanks Scarmanaga. Your input is respected and noted although some facts would also be welcomed about the future as opposed to the past :)

Thanks DutchStanton - Your view is noted and I for one agree with you 100%. Keep up the good work.

Of course we can lose 50% or even all our money. We are aware of the risks here but on your point that talks have been ongoing it is important to highlight that BPC was told they cannot drill for the last two years and they had to disclose that to any potential partner so no deal could be reached during that period. That situation changed with the license extension and explicit confirm that drilling is likely.

Agree partly as
Conclusion of talks can take three months and maybe then another 6months before a drill so BPC might have needed working capital for the next 9 months. Furthermore talks are not guaranteed so the company is being prudent to raise capitalwhen it can to guarantee the business as an ongoing concern even if the current talks fail. Nothing wrong with this course of action - Potter doing the right thing to extend the time line of negotiations if needes even if we donot like it.

I donot think a deal is imminent in the next week or two any longer either. However within 3 months it should be a real possibility because otherwise I alongside many others will be asking at that time “What is going on with these multiple farm in talks. By then the company would have had 4 months to complete the talks - similar duration to when the major moved sideways last year. We will know by summer if we are going to Maldives ???? Or Spain :) for holiday.

For reasons stated belowu will be surprised to go to 1p. Since 1p we have confirmation of license extensions, a successful capital raising albeit at 7.1% dilution, confirmation that BG is open to a drill and confirmations that at this stage talks are ongoing with multiple farm In Partners. Given that the change in fundamentals a share price around 2p is more justified in my view.

At the open prices are marked down to around 1.6 which is what you would expect irrespective of flows. During the day the price reacts to flows and today we are therefore effectively up 0.1-0.15 since the open. We are not aware of whether those taking the offer at 1.6 are selling directly to the placing manager in size (which will be reported later or even after the close) - if some are selling at mid price of 1.750 whichn A feasible the placing by manager has gone long and needs to sell into the market. Although this is not the case here as they have not announced any price stabilisation, they will be selling slowly. Contrary to popular belief here you keep
the price down when you want to sell/offload your book in order to pull the buyers out (there have been some unbelievable comments here that MMs bring price down to buy your stocks - NO). Again they will do this in an orderly fashion so unwinding of any long positions can take a few days. Bear in mind MMs rarely if ever will want to carry any inventory especially for an illiquid stock such as BPC.

So the price is no problem this morning. We need to make a judgement of what is happening with BG, why the AG etc would make claims which donot seem to be true and whether we think BPC will
Manage to at least get a farm in agreement signed in principle. If we could answer those questions we will know with clarity whether we should stay long or not.

So after the recent events this is my view:

Situation is more positive following last months license extension and successful capital raising and a share price which in my view will settle at 2p or 100% higher (than pre extension) reflects that. However price lower than recent high of 3.7to reflect that AG comments were for whatever reason not accurate and a deal
In my view is not impending although 3 months still remains a possibility (hopefully). The main conundrum here is to analyse and make a judgement as to the motivation of the AGs comment. Again if we could do that with certainty we could decide whether we should stay long or not. Difficult!!

Happy to do that as long as everyone is civil and the Bears must be given an opportunity to also air their views without being called de-rampers or liars etc. They or us donot move markets - only fundamentals driven by events such as this morning do.

I am not heartless at all VCB2. It is just that is anyone ever before said anything negative was reprimanded by those who thought they know it all. I am LONG and of course it is painful. But we can do nothing about it except t to either stay in or cut our losses and run. It is just that everyone’s here talks like there version is the only correct one and everything anyone else on the opposite camp says whether long or short is a fool. I therefore took it a step further to the extreme to show how irritating the behaviour is.

I am Very unhappy about the developments this morning but I am neither in the camp of the Doom mongers nor in the blue sky camp. I deal in facts. So what are the facts:

1) I am surprised at the capital raising and didnot expect it at all. It indicates that there is no impending deal which is about to be signed. However it doesn’t imply either that the company is not in ongoing talks with multiple partners. It is feasible that they don’t not expect to be able to finalise a deal for another 3 months and then they might not be able to drill for another 6 months so it is wholly feasible although unfortunate that they need working Capital to get there in 9-12 months.

2) License extensions have been granted and that is a positive. BG has indicated that they are open to drilling and that is also a positive development. There is therefore further clarity.

3) I do not buy into he nonsense of pump and dump all the time. Actually if BPC needed to raise further capital
they have done exactly the right thing. Any other CEO would have acted like Potter. Get the good news out first ie. license extension and after the rise do the placing. The effect of dilution is obviously less and to get the placing fully subscribed it is right to announce it following positive news flow.

4) One area which I am still struggling with is the AG comments. I donot believe they are complicit in any conspiracy and in Reality they will make much more if BPC drills and extracts oil. However his announcement of a farm in Partner is difficult to reconcile as that is a market moving event. BPC nevertheless denied it so at the moment I have difficulty in rationalising his client moments.

So overall where are we : we are in a better position than a month again. Licenses have been extended, there is no doubt there are discussions ongoing with majors although the outcome remains uncertain. Company is fully funded for the next 12 months and BG government while difficult to trust has signalled a willingness to drill. As such the stock should be well above 1 (pre extension price) and after today and further possible selling I would expect it to settle around 2 p. After that it will only move pending any farm in deal. For the time being I am remaining long.

Just for note if anything here makes unsubstantiated claims or is aggressive towards my be or anyone else’s view will see the emergence of my alter ego -
The Specialist.

5-10% down Ian too much. Expect the SP up on the day. Hooray

Company fully funded. Placing has been completely successful. Dilution very low at 7.1% only. Licenses extended. Company confirms multiple talks ongoing. Offering seems fully subscribed and shareholder support was 100%. This is great news and even if we are 5-10% down we will see huge buyers now turning by up as the capital raising is now out of the way. Hooray and happy days.

Or next year even but I will go for the end of March.

Poor Sciborg- You must not feel bad that you make things up. We all know you do and you have limited knowledge as evident by the fact that you say “we know there is 28bn barrels of oil as it has been mentioned here for years”. Hahahahhahahah. Are you really that unsophisticated that you rely on a board for your knowledge and facts. It is no wonder that you are in the dark, a grim sad uneducated person who keeps on losing money on every single trade that he has ever made. While you have lost everything the future is bright for you as you must remember the following : NEVER FEAR - THE SPECIALIST IS HERE “

Sciborg its making it up again. Not his fault comes from a lack of knowledge if the situation. The mean recoverable amount is around 1 Bn. Oil prices at US Crude if $58.6 are well above breakeven point of around be 37-42 for these fields. A deal will be done in my view - just too much noise around— and anything around 12.5% carry will see the stock at 12p on announcement and well above 50p if there are commercial quantities of 1bn recoverable. Anything more than 1bn and we go from a 15bagger to potentially as high as a 100 bagger. I have a good feeling that the news is coming before the end of March.

Totally agree. BB lost to traders but NEVER FEAR - THE SPECIALIST IS HERE to guide and assist. I think the Longs like me are on the right side of the trade. Share price reaction is exactly right as soMe who are disappointed that we had no deal over the weekend sell out. Expect a rally tomorrow or even before the close today as new buyers move in as price drops and existent holders top up. It really is simple - I cannot work out how you professional (lol) donot see it.

No. A JV is not guaranteed by any stretch of imagination although more likely than no deal at all. Scaremongers the same way he is wrong about saying we all know it is about to enter a JV you are wrong to say it is going bankrupt and it is all Pump and Dump. Volumes of 6m today with around 55% sell are no indication of that. So you are both wrong and only the omnipotent investor as usual is right.

Now down over 15%. Bid spread is 2.7-2.8. We have lost nearly a third of value since last week. Let’s see the priceless commwnts that MMs bringing price down to buy stocks. Hahahahhaa