Member Info for SPECIALIST1

I think the days of mate rates and getting out before it collapses which we had in the 80's with mining companies on the Vancouver exchange is all but over. Personally over the last 30+ years I never came across any mate rates etc. That is now just folklore! with all due respect.

What I am worried about is that herd mentality is also taking me over. After all 95% of posts here on Friday on fund raising was doom and gloom. By Monday we all say how great things are and that the deal is coming but genuinely speaking they cannot release a market moving event like a farm out immediately after fund raising as they are open to charges of favouritism and corruption - furthermore is deal was imminent why raise at 1.6p when you can do it at 6p.

Having tried to get my feet on the ground I am still happy at a small top up here :)

... but I am topping up a bit more. Although very very modest top up - Not that crazy after all :)

yesterday before the close. The same way that all the BUYS this morning are irrelevant to the fact of whether there will be a deal or not as no one knows at this stage - the SELL although much bigger than any BUY volumes (in a single transaction) are irrelevant as well. The market flows are irrelevant at current volumes - only when daily volumes passes 100-150m one can ascertain if there is any information forthcoming.

There will absolutely be no farm in news over the coming days. Jimthe know is right on this one! If the company knew that a farm in deal was pending and then they announced a significant material event over days it implies that they had withheld market sensitive information at the time of the placing. There will be no news over the next few days/weeks but after a month it becomes possible again.

Not a bad point at all. Even if the placing was at a 15% discount investors are still ready to back this dog for $2.5m so there is some confidence. The company might say 6-12 months to give themselves room but if the farm in partner is from last year then really we should hear from them within 3 months.

I am also struggling to rationalise AGs commentvand likewise didnot add after the fall although I am long in size.

I cannot t believe that the AG had no idea what he was talking about either but at this stage there is no major which has signed up therefore there is a reason for saying that although the company knows better hence feasible he was doing their bidding. It does seem unlikely but still possible - by the way there is a 70% chance the twin towers were brought down be explosives. You donot get metal fatigue and stress at exactly the right time in the main four pillars to bring it down at an exactly 90% angle - there would have been a slant but that is for another forum and not BPC.

No one in their right mind would pay a premium in a placing by BPC. It would have been ata adisciunt. 10/15% is fair.

Sorry Brynjon - I thought you were talking from the perspective of the mechanics and the risk of a leak as the issuance became widely known while coming to the market.

From the perspective of organising it, it had possibly been talked about between the company and the advisors over weeks ago and certainly they would have decided previously that once the licenses were extended they would look at the best time to launch it. As such when the AG was talking about the licenses and a farm in partner, the decision to have a placing was already confirmed between the company and advisors - although we cannot ascertain whether he was aware of an impending placing.

If I wanted to put a positive spin on it - then I would have said the AG was aware and the company had made it clear to the AG that they would need to strengthen their balance sheet to strengthen their negotiating position. Therefore after a placing they are more likely to close a farm in deal with the resultant benefit for BG. This is obviously all conjecture but I hope it is true!!!!

Correct.

Just for clarity - there is a difference between a placing and a book building exercise when you are place my shares although both will be done after market close and before next day opening once the green light to proceed is given. Anyway have a great weekend.

Change “bless” for unless ....

To complete - after 2008 banks are not allowed to have proprietary books while executing for clients so MMs no longer have any long term books and they will always minimize their inventory and in case of BPC they will never want to have a book bless they are executing during the day. Hence the talk of MM manipulation is driven by a lack of knowledge but it still surprised me that no one with the correct knowledge is on this forum :(

Yes - if deal was done/completed last night as they have to report immediately then no chance to make a huge profit although I guess 10% in a day is not bad. Also all the talk they will want the price at xxx level to make a profit is rubbish. Share trading is regulated by FCA on AIM. There is no manipulation - it is this lack of knowledge and false justification which sometim s gets to me but I don’t want to go there :) The Specialist is very happily retired at least for now ;)

A placing is usually done after market close between 4:37pm (post auction) and the book closes by 5:30pm although it can be extended into the morning but before market opening. However it is wholly feasible that on less liquid stocks the sales force will have ndertakrr a price discovery call with clients on TOTALLY confidential terms. Any possibility of a Leak and you cancel/delay or face regulatory scrutiny and fines. Therefore the AG is not complicit although I still am trying to rationalise his comments.

Hi Brynon - I will discount the AG comment and donot believe he knew although I am still trying to rationalise his thinking. Meanwhile remember stocks donot move on our hope of an outcome where we try to fit the events to our position rather on afacts on fundamentals. Today’s events is not good for us but only in terms of time frame - however in terms on being on the right side of the trade - our chances is down from 80-85% to 65% as the upside of an impending deal with a major is now removed. Donot get me wrong - I am Long in size and remaining so on balance of evidence but never make the mistake of backed by a stock for emotional reasons. While I respect Jimthe know and others many are trying to justify today’s events by spinning it towards their own position. You will never make a profit that way. Your position should never affect that facts and the analysis. All the best for the weekend. Longs still have it - just.

Jim. With all respect I will have to correct you. You never do an equity raise over a number of weeks as there is the possibility of a leak. Ther is no collusion - you will call your clients in one afternoon - and that includes all the sales people in the firm. You get a price that you will feel they are happy with and then you feed that back to the equity capital market (ECM) team whom will then decide alongside origination team whether we will proceed or not. So no - your analysis is wrong about the timing and methodology - however as I say again still in balance you are on right side of the trade although the probability of success is down from 85% to 65%. Today’s event was not good - a deal is not imminent although still very possible and the share price reflects that. Have a good weekend.

Good for you Jimtheknow. We are in for a five bagger and more or zilch but both outcomes can happen. I can also afford it so staying long.

Sorry VCB2 I am in your camp in terms of position but your statement is one of hope rather than current evidence. The capital raising unfortunately implies no Deal in the next few weeks.