Member Info for Spec

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/05/27/which-banks-are-most-exposed-to-italys-sovereign-debt-other-than-the-horribly-exposed-italian-banks/

Italy all the rage at https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-28/we-are-due-very-rude-wake-call-these-are-biggest-short-sellers-italian-bonds

Without our money, Italy (a net contributor) looking to renegotiate, a looming debt crisis, will the EU gravy train for the Eastern European nations come to an end? How do they feel about Germany moving towards Russia & away from their defender the US? Germany has no military, France does but no match for Russia et al. What if the US decided to close its eastern front bases? By all accounts, it's the Germans who want to freeze us out of the Galileo project. A lot going on & only time will tell but the EU has massive problems, too many to survive in its current form obviously. The talks on closer union have failed which restricts their ability to survive. Top all that with Trump firing the 1st shots in a trade war. Trumps made no secret of his preference for bilateral trade deals, it might just be the pre verbal hornet.

They have made attempts at fiscal reform with Macron pushing for more centralisation but Germany opposes Macron's plans so they're dead in the water. Germany refuses to guarantee southern Europes bad debts & even opposes the $100k bank deposit scheme. They have plans to prevent Europeans from withdrawing their own money to prevent run on banks, in favour of short term distributions to depositors of say 5 days money or so. What's the British word for Schaudenfreud?

ECB set to top balance sheet rankings https://www.ft.com/content/c0a97026-c31a-391d-840d-f9f2dcece12e Draghi leaving in 19, will his 'whatever it takes' leave with him. Are the technocrats willing to become Japan to hold the whole shooting match together or are the people of Europe deciding for them?

Italian debt to GDP is higher than Greece in 2009, Portugal a little below https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/government-debt-to-gdp https://tradingeconomics.com/portugal/government-debt-to-gdp https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp/forecast The only thing that stopped them going the same was was the ECB's QE, but as you can see that really didn't improve the situation just postponed it. The big difference is the bond yields with Greece's running at around 5% with Italy's & Portugals brought down to around 2% due to QE https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/government-bond-yield https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-bond-yield https://tradingeconomics.com/portugal/government-bond-yield The Italian Banks & the ECB are the only buyers of Italian sovereign debt & the ECB is promising to withdraw QE. I don't see how it can TBH, there'll be a bond bloodbath leading to a collapse in yields which both Italy & Portugal will be unable to service. The contagion will spread to Spain & the France. The whole mess will collapse. So that leaves the other option which we see with the increase in the ECB's balance sheet, the Japanification of the Eurozones economy. Though the wealthier nations of Northern Europe, including Germany are unlikely to accept that. Rabbit out of the hat time.

I remember, hot as hell. When they go bust the EU will install it's own technocratic government again

The populism on the right enjoys spending as well, probably little more than a matchpaper between them. The Liga is massively anti immigration & the M5S are not exactly calling for open borders. Italy, obviously has a huge problem in that area so expect the walla to go up. From.what I can tell it's the parallel currency or 'mini-bots' giving the most concern.

Aye, strange cocktail of left & right win populism united in their anti establishment

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-25/italian-bonds-tumble-triggering-goldman-contagion-level-political-crisis-erupts

At support

Looking stupid < chart full of gaps and is one up around 80.

Looks to me like one more pullback, if at all it will be this summer. Wouldn't discourage anyone buying here as at least 45p within a year.

At the risk of looking stupid, I sold the rest of my PMG. I reckon the move is done for now(barring a killer RNS)and will look to trade the fibs and accumulate a position.

You may be right fella. CPT clear they need funds. 2 options receive a nice sized order from Sino with 50% payment up front or, another placing. My money is on a placing & fairly soon. See the terms but probably a buying opportunity.

NK now begging for summit, SPX,DOW jump overnight, metals only give up a small part of yesterday's gains

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-24/trump-calls-historic-meeting-north-koreas-kim

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-24/10y-treasury-yield-tumbles-back-below-300

Is this something to do with tethers? I don't understand it all tbh. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-24/doj-launches-criminal-probe-bitcoin-market-manipulation

Follow Paul Johnson. As it happens I believe PML falls into that category. Problem with them is you're in a lobster pot.