IC just for you guys4 May 2018 09:31
IC Tip: Buy at 215p
Tip style
Speculative
Risk rating
High
Timescale
Medium Term
Bull points
Growing cash flows
Debts falling
Low trading multiples
Upside from undeveloped assets
Bear points
Political risk
Gas project uncertainty
Along with geology, Genel Energy (GENL) likes to see itself as a specialist in autonomous states. A seasoned operator in Iraqi Kurdistan, the company recently started exploring for oil in Somaliland, further burnishing its credentials as a company prepared to tread where others won’t. Consequently, Genel will fall well outside many investors’ comfort zones. Indeed, the oiler’s recent history bears the scars of doing business in such a fraught part of the world, including the inability to get paid by a Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) preoccupied by fighting ISIS in 2014 and 2015, and a frightening face-off between Iraq and the KRG after a 2017 independence referendum. Against this backdrop, there’s little surprise that a major gas project has been repeatedly delayed, denting sentiment already sapped by reserves downgrades and falling output at the once-stellar Taq Taq field.
But a strong recent run in the group’s shares this year is not only due to higher crude prices. As we recently wrote, operational issues have abated, and both cash flows and the balance sheet continue to improve. Despite this, based on broker Stifel's forecasts, the shares trade at a mere six times this year's free cash flow (FCF), dropping to only five times by 2020.
As well as cash-producing assets, there is considerable potential from gas assets in Genel's Miran and Bina Bawi fields, which are estimated to contain 14.8 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of raw gas on a contingent (2C) basis. That resource, 100 per cent-owned by Genel, has long been a source of huge optimism, only partly reflected by Stifel’s $297m (£201m) risked net present value, equivalent to 79p a share (263p for anyone gung-ho enough to ignore the considerable execution risk). Sitting just 300km from the Turkish border, the fields could – if developed – both satisfy domestic gas demand and provide Turkey with a far cheaper source of energy than the gas it currently buys from Russia.
Yet despite a defined resource and guaranteed buyers, Genel needs financing or a farm-in partner with deep pockets – a prospect that is “still seems some way off�, in the eyes of Canaccord Genuity. The possibility that Russia’s Rosneft might extend a recent pipeline deal with the KRG and step into the mix could prove to be a saving grace, or a complication.
Either way, we agree with analysts at RBC Capital Markets that Genel’s current business case is all about oil production. Most important is Tawke, in which Genel has a 25 per cent stake and where operator DNO has recently signalled its intention to fast-track output at the Peshkabir field. By summer, Peshka