Great Expectations25 Jun 2017 16:41
Been reading this Chat for a few months now as the long awaited Scoping Study has (apparently) been in development. It's taking a slightly absurdly long time - and there are some valid concerns with the ability of the Company to deliver anything on time (or ever), which I will go into more detail on later.
But I just want to talk about expectations coming into the release of the Scoping Study. Firstly, this isn't a Pre-Feasibility Study - its a Scoping Study, and no matter how many times people call it a PFS on this Chat, that doesn't reflect the language being used by the Board, which they are using for a reason. Now, it's a shame they can't call it a PFS cause it does appear from the recent update statement that they are basing it on primarily mining indicated resources - which does put it at a PFS level. But clearly it must lack some of the rigour, accuracy, planning, independent expertise or detail to allow them to call it a PFS.
Given they are still at this relatively late point in the Study changing the throughput levels, its fairly clear that this is a Order of Magnitude/Scoping Study in some respects, not a PFS, as the process to identify throughput levels going into a PFS would be more systematic. You don't typically start a PFS and then double the level of production, if you've followed the process properly. Maybe there are other aspects of the Study that are being done at a PFS level, but it seems unlikely any Study released in the next few months will meet a PFS level in its entirety.
More seriously though some of the financial calculations are beyond absurd. Talk of revenues of $135m a year based on 1000tpd production levels are totally flawed and definitely way out from reality, which will be at best half of that. Never mind about theoretical tonnages of copper, zinc and lead from a 2007 Annual Report based on full production from the high grade Engine Zone that simply can't be sustained at that level...