Member Info for southwesterner

"The Company expects to complete its independently reviewed updated Feasibility Study before the end of November 2022 and will provide further guidance on project schedule and life of mine financial metrics once this is completed."

https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/local-news/controversial-application-significantly-increase-hgv-7841914
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-63689986

As expected, the increased lorry movements application has been withdrawn due to local opposition. Aggregate operations are halted, and going forwards the current permission caps sales at 150ktpa, instead of the 1500ktpa originally planned (as per AIM admission document).

As can be seen from the sensivity analysis of the original project, the aggregates business was a secondary but still significant component of the overall business plan. The effect of this loss of the aggregates business on the economic viability of the project needs to be addressed in an RNS, ideally monday morning...

Yeah the link won't work if you haven't already accepted the terms and conditions of accessing the planning portal. Probably easier to just search for reference DCC/4314/2022 on https://www.devon.gov.uk/planning/

The issue isn't about processing tungsten concentrate in the UK, that is an irrelevance - the average number of truckloads of tungsten concentrate is roughly 1 per day, so doing further processing of that makes no difference. Its about aggregate sales from the ore sorted rejects, and they want to do 200 truckloads of that a day.

The (main) problem is going through the housing estates along Newnham and Glen Road. As you point out all the china clay lorries go through there already, but its a cumulative effect of additional HGV traffic, and this has given people a chance to complain about the traffic in the area etc, so there is a lot of opposition, which I suspect is going to make a carte blanche approval challenging.

I don't disagree, but I would recommend people DYOR on the status and probability of successful outcome of the increased lorry loads per day permit application; https://planning.devon.gov.uk/PlanDisp.aspx?AppNo=DCC/4314/2022

And the significance of the aggregates business to the viability of the project;
https://www.tungstenwest.com/aim-admission-document

Now Imerys have set their stall out to mine this resource in France, and become leaders in lithium supply in Europe, they must be aware of the projects being "developed" by CL and BL. Do CL and BL actually truly own the projects, or do they just have development/exploration agreements with Imerys? Its difficult to imagine any projects being developed around there without Imerys involvement now.

The lithium mica resources of Cornwall are very significant. The Hensbarrow (BL) granite is highly analogous to the Beauvoir granite where the French project is, and both contain large mineable volumes well in excess of 100Mt of material at grades of of 0.5-1% Li2O. Trelavour (CL) in comparison is much lower grade (0.25% Li2O) and inferior by comparison.

I think what most investors, myself included - or to look at it more broadly: "the market" - should want to see, is a Roadmap to derisking the Parys Mountain project (to a Feasibility Study), and ultimately developing it to production. I understand this will obviously take a number of years, and there are certain activities taking place now that will support the future programme of work, but without more vigour and a tangible plan in the public domain, there is a risk this share will continue to drift. I understand it will require raising of further finance, and would be prepared to support this if a path forwards can be defined and presented more clearly.

Whilst I understand that the CEO doesn't want to commit to specific timeframes or work programmes that are currently unfunded, it eventually becomes a "chicken or egg" question. Whilst the presentations highlights the fantastic potential in the assets, the question is how can any of this be realised. And the answer is providing a Roadmap - this can be graphical and clearly conditional on certain milestones being achieved such as funding for the further drilling and studies required. So it only applies is the funding requirements are met - but funding will never be achieved if people can't see a tangible path forwards. The other thing that needs to happen is some kind of corporate arrangement to realise value for Grangesberg - likely a consolidation and spinoff. There is no point keep talking about it otherwise, it has no credibility in its current form.

"Southwesterner, good to see you back. Would you kindly give us your view on recent developments at AYM?"

Overall good leadership by Jo Battershill, shame about the share price drifting over the past few months, perhaps just a difficult market though, he still has everything to play for.

Making steady progress at Parys Mountain, this is really a potentially very attractive project when it is properly repackaged in a more optimised scenario, which there should be opportunities to realise this over the next 6-12 months. It will add significant value and credibility to the project to progress it through permitting and then a pre-feasibility study - but this will take time, more drilling and thus, more expenditure.

Grangesberg is a potentially interesting project, ticks a lot of boxes in terms of location and the direction of travel in iron ore sector over past few years, and particularly since Ukraine crisis. The high grade concentrate product matches well with future requirements for net zero carbon steel production in Sweden. And the PFS achieved decent financial metrics, although at an iron ore price higher than present levels. But the scale of work to move the project forwards is immense, and its a total mystery how a small team like AYM can move the project forwards and capitalise on any of this, and therefore the market ascribes zero value to this holding presently as seen by the total lack of reaction to the PFS update, despite decent numbers. Need to agree a fixed price to take ownership up to the 70% option, and then organise a spin-off with an experienced credible Board including a local management team, to get the attention the project seems to deserve, and to create any value for AYM.

Recent $4m LIM investment by Scully Royalty is encouraging, and underlines the 12% holding owned by AYM has some value, but not necessarily very much.

"Although not on the current BGS list, zinc is defined as a critical mineral in the 2022 US Geological Survey list. Whether or not the UK follows the US in designating zinc a critical mineral, the US view is clear."

Sure, but the US isn't offering subsidies for developing resources in the UK (at the moemnt) - and right now zinc isnt even on the UK "watchlist". I'm not going to go into the relative merit of the USGS vs BGS evaluation techniques for "criticality", but suffice to say the US list is much more extensive and includes all sorts of things like aluminium, barite and fluorspar - that the UK doesnt seem to have even considered.

Not relevant - none of metals in Parys Mtn JORC resources are defined as critical minerals. Its still a great project, but this line of thinking is a bit of a dead end.

Congrats Cornishknocker thats great! Get that mine pumped out! Good luck.

I actually think CUSN has done very well, basically United Downs has been more or a less a dud, and they've moved the focus to South Crofty. To have come out of it with shareholder value pretty well intact, despite raising £40m, we're up 3x what they listed for just over a year ago - thats not bad going considering the "main asset" at that point has not really materialised.

Of course, fair winds have blown on the tin price and without that the whole ship would have sunk - but at least there was something else. Thats why I liked this share so much and was posting so many "Buy" ratings particularly at 8-10p, because there were always two separate plays here. The copper prospect at UD, and the proven tin deposit at South Crofty. Tin prices have come good, the Board have delivered on what they said they would do if that happened - and South Crofty is being moved forwards. They've really done a tremendous job of solidifying the value. The market wasn't interested in Crofty a year ago, they preferred the exploration prospect with the big drill hit, so they went with the flow.
But the placement now with Vision Blue shows the smart money now sees real potential to build value out of the massive tin deposit at South Crofty - one of the highest grade projects in the world not yet in production. And I am sure they can devise some more drill programmes and hopefully find something else somewhere too, but there's always a lot of risk with that kind of thing that it might not materialise. Whereas with South Crofty, there is no doubt a very significant tin project lies beneath. To bring it into production is going to be a significant task though, probably at least 5 years. But if tin prices were to hold hold out or increase, there's certainly plenty more value to be had on the current SP.

I was mainly referring to the post after yours actually; "What is true for Tungsten Corporation is probably true for Tungsten West as well. Can only add to the interest here."

Tungsten Corporation is an financial/IT services company, absolutely nothing to do with tungsten or mining.

As for your barely coherent point on AYM, which I think is a reference to my argument that their cut-off grade for the opening few years production is too low, the jury is very much still out on that. When they get funding to conduct a feasibility study, they may yet look at that as an option to improve the project economics, and frontloading higher grade ore to the project early on is one of the ways that can occur - spot metal pricing does not form the basis of mining economic decisions, you have to consider a trailing price, and you also need to look at paying back capital by mining higher grade material particularly early in the mine life.

Maybe do some basic research first before spouting nonsense?

Well I imagine its a sort of barren structure (possibly related to GFL) containing quartz passing through the killas... if you look at Dines Vol.1, p348, you can see the GFL itself is often in the killas rather than the granite especially nearer surface.

And then if you look at drill site 3 on p9; https://docs.planning.org.uk/20210825/5/QYE7S1FG0IW00/99mm1ozz7dcpiq76.pdf
That is well within the killas area, I mean probably all the drill sites are but certainly site 3; https://mapapps2.bgs.ac.uk/geoindex/home.html

Barren in that particular intersection anyway... as we know... cornish lodes can be very patchy, and the GFL was known for its"pay shoots" - spectacular zones of high grade tin mineralisation along an often barren quartz vein structure.

"One of their photos is of a very nice looking section of core, with 3m of what looks like very heavily mineralised core. Considering that the drill would have been straight into granite, it looks very interesting, with lots of quartz veining."

https://twitter.com/CornishMetals/status/1503758930408845322
Says on the post; "This particular section of core does not show any mineralisation."

So that structure is barren basically. They can tell that with a handheld XRF analyser.

Oh yeah, its definitely NOT pie in the sky. I've been there, and looked at the resource in some detail - good location, good infrastructure, good deposit. Its potentially a very credible project. I'm just saying the next step is not mining, its financing for further exploration and studies. Only after a proper feasibility study is completed can finance be unlocked for the project. The processing plant is a big chunk of the Capex, greater than the mining development costs. I don't think the White Rock zone can be considered in isolation, you have to have done a feasibility on the whole deposit to justify the capital expenditure required.

The reality is the market isn't taking this seriously at the moment, ironically partly due to the location, but also the long history of false starts and promises. Hopefully Jo can change that, and persists in investing the time and effort in rebranding and re-envisaging this project, whilst working through the necessary resource upgrades, metallurgical testwork and planning considerations. We've seen with CUSN that perceptions can change quite quickly, and I think Parys Mtn is every bit as credible a project as South Crofty - very suited to modern mining techniques, arguably a lot simpler to execute.

But this is NOT about getting "=mining "underway" at this stage. Thats not how mining works nowadays, because of the large capital involved, you have to have thorough studies. Its about systematically going through the necessary derisking and detailed technical studies to build a package that can convince the serious investors to back this project. They need to get the necessary finance to do this detailed feasibility study work first, and put some timeframes around that process. Until then we are somewhat stuck in limbo, but the hope is Jo can convince sophisticated investors to fund this project through further exploration and feasibility studies, then we are back on track.

I mean there isn't actually a padlock on the gate, because there is no gate to put it on. I don't think they actually own any land or have even decided where the surface facilities for any mining operation would be located. In contrast to CUSN and TW which actually have mine sites.

And, there certainly isn't going to be a drill update, because there is no drilling going on, because there is no money to fund it... there has been some auger sampling but thats about it. That isn't going to tell you much other than where to drill, when you have finance to do that.

The only reason the plug hasn't been pulled already is the tungsten price is rocketing, but that isn't enough to fix this situation alone. The Plant has to perform. They are well and truly in the last chance saloon now. If this funding doesn't come through next week, its lights out. If it does, they've really got till the end of June at most to turn it around, and sustain levels of production where the operation becomes cashflow positive. Anyone with money here now needs to realise there is a significantly above average chance of losing it all now in this share.

On 29 May '21 last year, zoros said;

"First production conservatively I would April to June by that I mean stoping the SE crescent i.e. 2m tons per year. This is his interpretation of 'production'. I anticipate earlier at the rate Byrnecut are going. So Q1/22 is a possibility. However, my roadmap shows Q2/22....same as Bamps prediction. So you are outnumbered SW."

I objected to the ludicrously optimistic predictions of Bamps and Zoros, and I posted;

"I may be outnumbered - but I am a qualified mining engineer, with experience working in decline and stope development in Australia as well as other places, so maybe my opinion counts for more? We will see."

We have now seen who was right. They are only 10% of the way down now to first ore. This is mining, not a stroll in the park. I offered my advice, but some people always know best...

I think you're fundamentally wrong about there being loads of drilling at Parys, its significantly underexplored and there is massive potential for expansion of resources which would improve the economics of the overall project. A lot of the existing resources are also inferred and require further infill drilling, hence this drilling programme, although this is only dealing with a small portion of the inferred resources.

Regardless of the exploration potential, there isn't going to be financing until a feasibility study has been produced, and that won't happen until after further infill drilling, met test work, environmental studies, and so on. The process has to be followed... it needs to be accelerated if possible, and the wording in some of the RNS did lack a bit of urgency, but fundamentally there is a lot more investigatory work to take to a conclusion before the project can realise its true potential. The facts are Jo understands what is required to get financing, and the project needs to be progressed through these steps. I think the people who dont understand how modern mining works, and think yellow diggers are going to turn up next week and start building a mine - need to maybe get off the bus, and Jo needs to work to bring in serious investors who are prepared to back this project through the required further studies, rather than expecting instant "multibaggers" and production next year. Once there is a clear and credible pathway to achieving a formal feasibility study, with finance in place, and timeframes and workflows outlined, there will be a significant upwards rerating of the share price in my opinion.