SimplywallStreet says28 Mar 2026 22:10
Serica Energy plc (LON:SQZ) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's statutory forecasts. The consensus statutory numbers for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) increased, with their view clearly much more bullish on the company's business prospects.
After the upgrade, the five analysts covering Serica Energy are now predicting revenues of US$1.2b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a huge 107% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The losses are expected to disappear over the next year or so, with forecasts for a profit of US$0.24 per share this year. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.19 in 2026. There has definitely been an improvement in perception recently, with the analysts substantially increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.
Although the analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$3.68, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Serica Energy, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$4.48 and the most bearish at US$3.09 per share. This shows there is still some diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Serica Energy's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Serica Energy's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 107% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.6% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Serica Energy is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us from these new estimates is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, with improved earnings power expected for this year. Fortunately, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates sales are expected to perform better than the wider market.
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