Member Info for Soundingoff

Thanks B4.

B4Now- That's interesting. Have you looked at the FEED award from June? I presume you've adjusted for Morocco's tax regime? Can you re-run this for 70 scuffs per day?

Eric- I'm afraid you are missing the point of a discounted cashflow. It already provides for the use of capital and risk. Obviously whilst there are items missing from the production concession there will be some discount for this.

Thank you for that post Fellrunner. I agree we must accept Sound's calculation, but I don't invest in anything without my own figures or a check on copmany guidance.

My view is that we are working on a worst case scenario here, from multiple aspects. As I've already posted, conservative recovery rates drop us by 30p. We may be writing off the development costs on the basis of no more gas (quite prudent), a limited timescale and over the 60m scuff development. This will make a huge difference and just the drop in bcf per drill is a 10-15% reduction in the £ per TCF. Spur pipelines are cheap, the initial development is not.

I remember it was stated it was including full development costs including processing and pipeline. However I doubt whether we have that in writing, so it will be good to get confirmation.

Frankly it's hard enough to get back to those figures anyway as you know Fellrunner. If I removed £1/2 billion of development costs we'll start to look like SDX where $9 of gas is $8 of profit...

eric- As noted before our posts were deleted, the BOT costs are included in the figure. This is a full development cashflow and leaving out the BOT costs simply are not possible. It's not how it works.

The exact costs will have been updated once the FEED award was known in June. However they will had to include some placeholder figures for the development before that, as they could not have prepared the discounted cashflows without them.

He certainly mentioned it at the Bristol event.

Firstly they would only take details from you, as GDPR would not allow them to discuss anything further.

More importantly, they really don't have the time or inclination for this stuff. Some would suggest they don't care either, but clearly that wouldn't be my view.

I've dealt with them a few times and the chances of them being interested in you are exactly NIL.

Always interested in extra info Gibbo. Ill email you a bit later. Thanks.

250- Have you done the calculations yourself? If you can get close to those figures for the TE5 horst, I will be very surprised. There is quite clearly going to be very different metrics for our first horst and in-country gas vs future European gas. One size doesn't fit all.

If it's so easy for you to say, prove it. Talks cheap as they say. I've asked our resident proprietary and flow trader, however she can't seem to disprove my assertion.

To be clear, Sharebel is not suggesting his platform is marking A trades as ALGO trades. He is just highlighting that the stock exchange is receiving data that most of our recent activity has been generated via algorithm trading systems.

Bobsnest- As per Sharebel, you can just look on the Stock Exchange website. An A trade will either have no flag or an ALGO flag. As you state, when we use DMA, there will be no flag. During those days we were pushed down, almost all trades were marked as ALGO trades. And they were matched in volume between buys and sells.

Just post the facts Retour. There have been a lot more than 6 today. And when we were really dropping almost every Auto trade was an ALGO trade. Hundreds of them a day and they swamped ordinary trades by many multiples.

08:24:00 23-Nov-2018 15.01 GBX 3,278 492.03 Automatic Trade ALGO AIMX
08:23:53 23-Nov-2018 15.01 GBX 12,322 1,849.53 Automatic Trade ALGO AIMX
08:23:53 23-Nov-2018 15.01 GBX 1,220 183.12 Automatic Trade ALGO AIMX
08:23:53 23-Nov-2018 15.01 GBX 3,790 568.88 Automatic Trade ALGO AIMX
08:23:50 23-Nov-2018 15.01 GBX 20,000 3,002.80 Off-book AIMX
08:23:31 23-Nov-2018 15.00 GBX 6,000 900.00 Automatic Trade ALGO AIMX
08:23:31 23-Nov-2018 15.01 GBX 2,306 346.13 Automatic Trade ALGO

That is a complete lie Retour. You only have to scroll back to see the Algo trades today.

When we saw the big drops, the majority of the trades were processed by algorithm trading systems. Buys/sells matched so there was no large selling during the period. There is still significant activity by these systems.

Best question of the day blocker!

Fellrunner- These requests of mine are building up:

1. A summary of those trades that may disagree with your selling theory of the last few weeks?
2. Your old NPV calcs that are much more optimistic than the revised metric being discussed here?

Remember, £50 to charity!

Feeling very mischievous today.

Fellrunner- I'm not quite that flush, but I'll donate £50 to a charity of your choice if you repost your original NPV calcs for TE5 from when you first joined. And I'll know if you've changed them... Don't duck this one please, think of the charity ;)

A short and not particularly sweet subject:

At this SP, we are underpinned IMO, GSA or not. And by some margin. After our three drills, we will have barely scratched the surface here. If they are all dusters, we will have essentially failed, but someone will IMO be more than happy to pick up where we have left off.

If TE10 comes in mid-case with 2.6TCF, then again IMO we have value in excess of £2 per share with the discovery, TE5 horst and seismic/basin modelling. It's that simple. Of course the COS has dropped from 30% to 25% and I'm sure many don't have much confidence. But this is a different play and I understand where Brian is coming from regarding the main risks on these drills.

So for anyone lucky enough to NOT be invested now or have the money to invest significantly more, this is quite an opportunity.

My view is the SP is where it is due to Alogrithm trading and not major selling. No one has yet to provide any evidence to the contrary and the London Stock Exchange confirms my view.

With the SP where it is, it's easy to invest before TE10 on a low risk with a huge upside. If it fails you know you're covered. Or you wait and maybe buy in on single digits on failure or at a higher, but still relatively low price on success.

There's a reason why there's a lot of shouting. Greed, money talks.

PS- Fellrunner, when you get chance, it'd be appreciate if could you have a look at those figures for me. Thanks.