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The SP is 50% higher than when we started drilling TE10 and we've had an RNS update since spud.

So it appears Mickey is suggesting there is gas ;)

Yes I went back and read that section as well Yoghurt. Fingers crossed.

of auctions? 2 minutes trading in 12 so far.

Mike- This was Jason Canning's answer to how the two volumes/plays interact.

'The CoS for the larger stratigraphic prospect is 14%. The CoS for the smaller structural closure is 26%. The two models have different trapping mechanisms - the strat trap being higher risk, therefore lower chance of success. If the smaller structural closure works and the hydrocarbon column is deeper than the spill point, then we are a long way to proving that the larger stratigraphic closure works.'

I'm afraid I'm unable to provide any more detail regarding the positioning. It sounds like it'll either work or it doesn't and as per the RNS, we should know in due course.

Along with pump/dump and leakage (which I'm still not sure happened with TE9), there are some alternatives.

The drops we have seen in recent months have been on low volume. Share trade data shows that at times the majority of those trades were by algorithm. One argument would be that this drop was facilitated by shorting (borrowing shares). With the risk of 'good news' on TE10 looming, those shorts needed to be closed and the 1.7m shares was part of that.

Alternatively, there were a large number of broker buys after the 1.7m and it could simply be down to confidence returning. However it all seemed too neat.

Either way, it appears there were very few shares available to satisfy demand.

A few hours trading on Monday and it'll be interesting to see what happens.

Indeed ozzie. We have a discovery (and with similar porosity to the TE5 Horst), the question is how big is it, does it validate the strat play and the overriding question, will it flow?

Commercial flow for me will be success, irrespective of size. We are constantly told we need to prove commercial gas outside of the TE5 horst, and TE10 could do that for us.

Fingers crossed.

I'd have thought we're close to having to issue an RNS regarding the price rise.

Indeed, with commercial finds, the 50+ targets on our inventory would be a lot more valuable. The route map would be more weighted towards Capex.

It appears that the real value creator is not the drills themselves but the multiplier applied to the seismic/basin study/inventory due to successful drilling. This is highlighted by the valuation criteria applied to TE10, where (if present) the value of the strat trap is still an increase in COS rather than confirmation of GOIP.

I'm shocked that they released information early, so can only hope that's an indicator of their confidence.

Either way it stops all the good news vs bad news silliness.

We need to prove gas outside the TE5 horst and however small, this will do that as long as we get commercial flow.

Thanks Neptunes for a compliment of sorts!

I think they were clear that they will update when required to do so by RNS. You don't share that view. But I can't believe anyone would think they would announce gas shows and run the chance of another 'Badile'. Do you seriously believe that? I don't think the Nomad would allow it either given our recent issues.

My understanding is they are required to communicate by RNS when the results are know- drilled and logged. Whether good or bad news, within reason that process takes the same time, and so until news lands, we are in the dark.

Neptunes- The drill will involve logging whether a duster or not. It's clear that comms have been cut and IMO there is no chance we'll get news (good or bad) before when we have to officially release news. Chances of a 'gas shows' RNS are NIL.

So right now, stating no news means this or that is misunderstanding the communication process IMO. It's a blackout until the boxes are ticked and we just have to sit and wait.

26% COS on the smaller target lucky. In the best case, if the conditions seen on that target are as hoped, it will increase the COS on the larger stratigraphic target beyond 14%.

They have to update when they know the full results of the drill. I don't think we've had long enough to get to TD and run the wireline logs. I'm expecting that once they've done that they'll update us, rather than last time when they rushed the RNS Reach through for TD only. IMO this no communication strategy is much better for the company and genuine investors.

Enjoy Christmas everyone and let's see what Santa brings.

JP said he may agree a link between the two, but as far as we know, nothing has been agreed yet. Quite clearly there is now a disconnect between world oil and gas prices, with gas gaining ascendancy in some areas. We want this GSA done, but I don't think gas prices are a concern.

To me, the £1 billion figures is quite arbitrary. It's a oft-quoted psychological barrier that people seem to come up with. Those individuals never have any figures to validate their opinion, so to suggest an opposite opinion is unrealistic, is a strange one to me.

The broker reports suggest validation of the strat play to be worth 110p. Add on the value of the horst and further validation of the seismic, and we'll easily surpass £2 IMO (sale price not SP). The true figures is unknown to us PIs.

I'm very interested to see what the valuation is of our assets (and potential) in the forthcoming research note. Hopefully it will be of a higher quality than the recent TE10 note.

Ponkey- There's your 'algo' c..p ;)

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/trade-data.html?fourWayKey=GB00B90XFF12GBGBXAMSM

AT trades can be further broken down. ALGO denoted trades are shown under the trade flags.

Letters from OGIF can't be bad news, but there are more significant matters at hand. We are only a few weeks away from TD on the current drill. Confidence in these drills is dented somewhat, but it appears that if we are successful and the gas column is deeper than the spill point on the small volume, the wider stratigraphic play is also significantly derisked. The stated COS of 26% and 14% remain somewhat opaque.

It's valued at £1.10 per share by Progressive (validation of Sound's figures in reality). It will be interesting to see how things play out. On success or failure our SP will remain disconnect from NAV without some sort of rerate. Throw in a company-wide valuation report, and things could get interesting.

I agree Exploration, equipping the letter with an engine would certainly add weight...

I'm afraid the report has a number of grammatical and spelling errors, so I don't think you can infer anything from it to be honest. I'm hoping the more detailed report due in a few weeks will be of a higher standard. Either way, this report is welcome news for us PIs.

The FSC was interesting, as usually it's only JP who makes reference to selling after 3 drills regardless. This time JJ seemed to suggest it too.

If you read it grammatically, it does suggest that Longwait. But if you add a comma after basin, it reads that whether the drilling is successful or not, we will be sold.