Member Info for Soundingoff

I use the higher value given that the metrics have improved significantly following the TE7 update- significantly fewer wells required etc. From a review of recent sales, discounts of up to 10% from NPV10 are usually applied.

'The independent (*cough* paid for *cough*) value assigned to TE-5 is 19-27p, and this is UNRISKED. It's clear that no industry player will be valuing TE-5 at 27p.

Even 15p would be extremely generous based on 19p unrisked.'

Back to this one again I see wh0s. If you go and look at actual sales of developments over the last few years, you will see they sell for very close to NPV10 value. Sorry for adding facts to the discussion.

'SO wants to know what my NAV guestimate is. He/she may not recall my price / TCF of gas in ground was about 37p, when The Failure was extolling £1.50, later upped by crude to over £1.70 with OGIF deal ( lol). we have about 1/3 TCF , so NAV on that about 12p by my reckoning. What is the values of SM, the value of seismic we have performed, the value of our 47.5% interest in the license area? With The Failures drilling programme , which confirmed previous drill results at SM, then nothing else done there. The Failure told us there is up to 10TCF there. At this point in time, without a CPR, no-one has a clue whats there. He will have a job and a half trying to convince experience OnG people that its worth 100 m never mind a billion. Whats in Anoule?, anyone like to hazard a guess? I know one way to find out, and its #letthedrillbitdothetalking.'

And therein lies the problem testpack. You (like a few others) apparently know exactly what's best. And yet you don't have the first clue about valuing this business.

'If that was true, and there really is something saleable, imho you don't need 6 months, or Rothschild's, or a marketing plan or any other clever prolonged devices to get the LE sorted. '

If you want to sell something for the best possible price, you create a market. Figuratively punting it on to WeBuyAnyCar is not the way to do it.

'The way to maximise SH value is to raise funds and drill, inc. SM. If this takes 12-18 months, so be it, We may still be here in 12-18 months with the present plan'

testpack- I'm sure you appreciate that they always have to consider risk vs reward. Maximising shareholder value cannot always be the plan. That is what we have tried to achieve and to some degree failed. I presume to have the opinion above, you have a view on our NAV at this point in time. Care to share?

I'm not sure why people think there won't be interest. The reasons for interest (separate from offers) would be:

gas vs oil
well developed concession- GSA, FEED, BOT etc
production cost
onshore
fiscal regime
geographical connections
country support
geopolitical considerations
exploration work to date
exploration upside

We've already been told there were a number of management presentations being made, which per advice would be after the interested party has viewed the data.

There will be significant interest (IMO). When you really look at the alternatives out there, why wouldn't there be interest?

The only question is the price. Everything has a price.

We don't just have James' word Kasjnation, we also have our own reasoned thought.

This is a vital strategic asset for Morocco, a country with very easy access to finance. We have already shown our links to finance in country and frankly I can't think of an asset that would raise finance easier than the Horst.

'Well that’s certainly one person’s doomsday reading of the current situation..... and it’s as valid as any other in the absence of any new info. '

But I'm afraid it isn't as valid as any other. If I say 5+5 is 2, is that valid? No.

Indeed. partridge has actually done the calculations previously, so he knows what he's posting is ball****s. Rather sad.

No wh0s, I compared the Horst with CLNR.

We have around 40 times the potential of CLNR. O&G companies want potential. We have it. What's it worth? I've asked you for your view on value, but I can see that's not going to be forthcoming is it!?

Have a lovely day.

Seriously? Do you know the potential size of the P2552 licence? That's like comparing my house with Buckingham Palace. I'd look up some tracker funds if that's the extent of your analysis.

Anyway, I'll leave you to your continual posting on a board where you hate the asset and the CEO.

The CLNR prospect is 600bcf gross. The Horst is 651bcf gross with 377bcf contingent, around 70% larger.

Ignorance or agenda?

'I can't see Shell being interested personally - 47.5% of max 60mmscf/d is just not worth it for them. Tendrara as it stands currently with 1 commercial development sits naturally with a mid cap co like Sound. If we had 5tcf under our belt by now, then obviously things would be different, but why on earth would Shell be interested in a proven 300bcf and a bunch of prospects at 10-15% COS?'

I'm sure I've corrected you on this before wh0s. Maybe it was someone else.

Shell have recently farmed into CLNR's North Sea licence to develop 600bcf. So quite the opposite to your supposition.

Table- My opinion is we have been working on selling the business in earnest since early this year. I think we can only say the decision is right or wrong (to sell now) once we know the sale price. Then we can assess the risk/reward of continuing. Or of course we may have to continue anyway. That's not my expectation, but we will see.

Tradesmakes- I'm not sure where you're getting your figures from, including quoting 4m and 1m, but institutions increased their holdings by 40 million shares in Q1. And half that again last quarter.

This is what I posted the other day:

It just looks like they've added in the placing, which assuming it was taken by an institution, means that there has been little institutional buying/selling except for the placing. Good to see given the institutions bought in up to 30p prior to TE10 results. Of course if an institution didn't take the placing, then there has been further institutional buying.

It appears that IIs increased their holding to 12% during the period in early January '19 after the news on TE10. This pushed the price to around 30p. I take confidence in the latest Q3 update, that despite the disappointing news on TE10, they have not reduced their holdings.

Axe- For our peace of mind, can you confirm you don't work for the NHS?

Unfortunately it's just emotional ranting.

Our plan was/is to develop our assets and sell. Not production. Whilst success has not been as good as hoped with the drill bit, we have continued to develop the Horst (ready for production), our inventory and the wider seismic.

We have a saleable asset, the only question is the price. We do not need cash right now to allow us to trade for more than 12 months and have a number of realistic commercial options from here if we didn't decide to sell and exit in one move.

Have a read of what I and others posted after the BB event. It speaks for itself.

If you're talking about prior to the event, then I always had that as a possibility. Why on earth wouldn't you? The last few years have just been about strategy quite frankly.

It's rather sad that you need to finish with an insult. Your lack of understanding is your problem not mine.