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Always amazing to me that a de-listed company with life threatening challenges creates such interest - and that people with pretty obvious short/exposed positions still post relentlessly. Also that despite a complete news black out so much is checked out and so many interpretations are made virtually every hour of every day.
Some of Regdiks posting on LSE has been pretty solid in my view - and his “factbase” (posted by dgfletters) difficult to argue with. Readers will know that I have been invested here since 2012 - and I will confess that through the summer I mentally wrote off my investment. I still have - seeing that it cannot be crystallised - but my sentiment has changed considerably in recent weeks. In a nutshell here is what I think has been going on in the last year or so (and apologies if it just repeats what others may have said):
Last year’s drilling was more - much more - about proving than cash generation. And the fact that such a fight to the death is taking place says categorically that the box is indeed worth fighting for
ZM and co thought they were going to get a partner deal but the Georgians were clearly not going to agree re the PSA issues
A partner deal would have meant that Hope could have been managed. That clearly didn’t work in the required timescale
The partner(s) have said that any deal is subject to the Georgians agreeing extended/new PSA terms (and if no realistic partner prospect existed I believe SN/ZM would have thrown the towel in long ago)
concurrently Hope was initially frozen out of the information loop. Then ZM & Co decide that under no circumstances will Hope get any share of a future deal - other than repayment. Also under no circumstances will he become a significant shareholder.
So the legal actions - both planned and reacting to events - were entirely about protecting the asset and buying time. The lawyers will have advised on the news black out - but ZM & Co also lost faith in shareholders - ie they weren’t which shareholders could be trusted - so better to trust no-one.
the legal and advisory costs ramped up generating extreme cash flow issues
but the only game in town has been to see the arbitration through and progress some sort of deal. Real pain and real people clearly hurt - but that was the price
Lots more - and this is obviously a real fight for survival. But the tenacity is quite remarkable - and the fact that a) no killer blow has ye been delivered - 12 months on, b) that the arbitration process is still clearly progressing c) that US pressure on Georgia remains intense and d) that Hope seemingly still wants shares - all says a lot.
I hope that date, 12/02/20, is UK and not US format!
Thanks Earsbern for some positive news for a change. Good to see H on the ropes and Steve landing the sucker punch. Let us hope for more good news re arbitration.
US Embassy Issues a Statement on the Detained Georgian Doctor
The U.S. Embassy in Tbilisi demands an urgent release of Dr. Vazha Gaprindashvili, a distinguished Georgian doctor, from the Tskhinvali isolator.
“The U.S. Embassy calls for the immediate release of Dr. Vazha Gaprindashvili, a well-known Georgian physician and president of the Association of Orthopedists and Traumatologists of Georgia, who was sentenced by the de facto authorities in Georgia’s South Ossetia region on November 15 to two months of pretrial detention. Additionally, we again call for the immediate end to closures of the crossing points along the administrative boundary line. We reiterate our full support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia within its internationally recognized borders. We once again urge Russia to fulfill all of its obligations under the 2008 ceasefire agreement, including the withdrawal of its forces to pre-conflict positions and the provision of free access for humanitarian assistance to these regions, as well to reverse its recognition of the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states,” the embassy stated in an announcement released on Saturday.
by Beka Alexishvili
17 November 2019 17:04
Latest Lobbying Report states between 1st July to 30 September 2019.
There's been too many COCs on here today.
But then prod, I'd have difficulty writing PUOSYCCD in meaningful squiggly lines.
Thank you very much b20, things seem to be moving very quickly now, is it allowed to mention possibility of xmas pressies?
So star is back centre stage, shame, goodnight.
So flog the gas to SM carry on with producing oil, move into Moldova, what's not to like?
Great find prod, looks like being the happiest weekend this year.
Good work Zig, I would have expected more than an emoji if things were bad, more like a tirade. After all he would have nothing to lose by letting rip.
Just received an unexpected refund from mr taxman so I won't mind paying him some back, although it would be considerably more.
My heart missed a few beats then errazel, try not to do it again?
Fozz - seems like there has been a spate of departures from the Georgian subsidiary FEGL, which is a subsidiary of FRCC, which in turn is in the hands of the liquidators. Perhaps the departures are linked to the accruing staff costs which the liquidator cannot cover due to the 95% farmout of B12 to FRUS [i.e. all oil proceeds going to FRUS now?]. Remember this is not a transfer of the PSA as this is restricted by the CLNs but a separate commercial agreement presumably approved by the Georgian Govt. If this is correct, then it will not go down well with the GoG, laying off long standing [innocent] Georgian employees. Perhaps its a tit-for-tat retaliation because the GoG approved the farmout? I don’t know?
There were also some very important revelations uncovered by the LSE crew that FRR’s lawyers submitted a motion to withdraw representation from the Fiduciary case, mainly as the two parties could not come to an agreement on how to voluntary withdraw from legal proceedings (FRR wanted to withdraw it ‘without prejudice’ meaning that they still had a right to re-initiate legal action in the future if they wanted to while Hope’s lawyers wanted it ‘with prejudice’).
The motion of withdrawal was granted by the Judge and gave FRR 30-days to appoint new Counsel. I believe a telephonic conference call will be held on the 8th January 2020.
So what does this all mean for us? Could it be the beginning of the end? Is it good or bad news?
My personal view is that if the Arbitration has been resolved and FRR given the production license, the farmout will be completed and OMF repaid. If it was the other way, I think everyone would have been fired in one shot [as is the case in liquidation cases e.g. Thomas cook] and bad news would have been leaked to all the main media outlets by now.
Six Georgian digits at top left corner of paper translate to SHIRAKI in English. Shiraki valley in Dedoplistskaro is located in extreme eastern part of Georgia. Having said that, I cannot find a newspaper.
So come on red herring have the GG coughed up and have the workers been paid? Don't expect an answer.
American Congressmen to Visit Georgia
American Congressmen Adam Kinzinger and Alex Moon will visit Georgia on November 5-9, the Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reports.
The Congressmen will hold meetings with Georgian Prime Minister, Foreign Minister, Defense Minister and Parliamentary Speaker.
Within the framework of the visit, they will visit the administrative boundary line (ABL) with the occupied Tskhinvali region and will get introduced to the current situation on the spot.
In addition, the guests will take part in the Defense and Security Conference and visit the seaside towns - Batumi and Poti.
The Foreign Ministry notes that the congressmen are active supporters of Georgia, its sovereignty and territorial integrity. It is noteworthy that Adam Kinzinger is the co-author of the resolution adopted in support of Georgia by the US Congress in 2019.
By Ana Dumbadze
05 November 2019 13:48
Wonder what the 'Five point agreement with the GG' is all about? So many questions.
Mol bought only 9.57% stake so 5 to 600 million.