Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Many thanks Looed for all your efforts. More facts from zaza than waffle imo.
Iconia are using UNCITRAL maybe that is one avenue FRR would consider?
Zaza tallking about GG violating terms of the contract, do I sense further court action?
Why didn't the GG just let the clock tick down but no they wanted to talk. Suggests to me they are the ones who have been telling porkies.
Some great posts again this morning guys, many thanks. Appears the GG/GOGC are almost pleading with Frontera to get round a table, so comeon Zaza you have said your piece get sat down and talk.
Well it seems to be that Zaza’s bravery and persistence, aided no doubt by SN in the USA, has finally got his opponents on the back foot. There a decent chink of light here for us shareholders imo, now that the imminent threat of losing everything seems to have been removed.
At a political level Georgian Dream will not want this dispute to resurface in any way that could be damaging ahead of the October election, but I remain of the view that regime change will be necessary at the election if FRR is to secure the JV that will be necessary to monetise what’s left of Block XII. If that happens we could well be looking at a relisting early next year or possibly a payout if the company is sold lock, stock and barrel to a major.
Whatever, if I was Zaza I’d be looking to get my family to a place of safety in case one of Vlad’s hitmen comes looking for me after the election, as the election of a genuinely pro Western Government would undoubtedly have him lashing out in all directions, hence my comment about Zaza’s bravery in the first line of this post.
Tot
Dubai Dodger asks:
Devex, I am always interested in your well-balanced views. Do you think this appears to be some (rare) good news or simply a PR stunt for public consumption?
Devex replies;
Hi DD
I really don’t know - is it an attempt to deflect the criticism of the authorities or a genuine change of heart? The “subject to conditions” will of course be the key here.
Whatever, the heavy political pressure must have had an impact - and no doubt cooler heads are starting to spec out the consequences if the US starts to act rather than threat. Quite a few foreign bank accounts might end up of out of reach and of course Block 12 might not attract much interest if US companies choose to pass any involvement by.
One thing I will say is that these guys are not renowned for any public goodwill to FRR - let alone their private views. This statement kind of reverses the pressure from FRR to GOGC - the risk is that if the conditions are wholly unmanageable FRR simply go back on the attack and say “we told you so”, and the US simply carries on with their attack on the authorities.
I am also inclined to link this to the lawyers letter the other day - that leak looked genuine and surely had to be from the FRR camp. The mention of a fairly high power co-ordination committee might indeed be what is going on behind the scenes - and this latest move is just one more step in a behind the scenes route to a compromise where no-one abruptly loses face.
One thing for sure though - I can’t see how FRR can work the 1% unless some sort of significant financial deal and future partner is in place.
DD
I'm sure everyone, including myself, will be looking forward to Zazas response, so Looed, best have your translator fired up. This is going to get very interesting imo.
Would prefer a message from Zaza.
Zaza planning his next interview, or something else?
Seems to me that the end game here is likely to be dependent on regime change at the October elections as I said in an earlier post, hence Zaza’s politicization of the dispute and desire for air time in the Georgian media. With the US senators getting involved again one wonders if the CIA will now have a role to play in undermining the Georgian Dream party and Ivanishvili in the run up to the election. Let’s face it the USA has invested a huge amount of money through its aid programmes here to keep the country away from the clutches of Vladimir Putin, so I can’t see it backing off now.
Tot
So the high profile ‘war of words’ continue. The latest revelation from Domfok keeps the candlelight flickering despite some gusty winds on the Georgian Plains. So despite all the propaganda being pumped out by the GOGC through their lawyers, their public Facebook page and supported by Russian media outlets, Zaza continues to fight his corner. Reminds me of that song from Tom Petty “You can take me to the gates of hell, but I won’t back down”.
Anyway, I think the Georgians strategy has been that if they keep saying they’ve won the Arbitration for long enough, FRR, would just fade in to the night; well that isn’t happening as Zaza is going on Live TV to deliver his version of the Arbitration outcome; he is basically calling GOGC a bunch of liars. So who’s deluded, Zaza or the Georgians? I guess time will give the answer to that important question. Or as I have said before, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
But it does seem to me that the American bigwigs are throwing more weight behind FRR and this can be seen by Zaza’s confidence, taking on the regime single handedly on TV.
Also, it was a wise move by FRR to farmout Block 12 to Frontera Resources US (‘FRUS’), hence legitimatising US Congressmen intervention to support an ‘American’ company. The Georgians were hoping that they could placate the US hierarchy by arguing that FRR has no ties to the USA, I.e this is a Cayman Island registered company, trading on LSE, operating in Georgia; perhaps they are still holding this line?
Politics further ratcheted up by FRR accusing the Georgian Dream Party of importing/moonshining on Iranian oil. Recall shortly after Khaka Kaladze visit to Tehran in late 2015, his Ministry (of Energy) was absorbed in to SAOG and he went on to became the Mayor of Tbilisi. Was this done on the instructions of US? I would suggest so.
Bidzina Ivanishivili, an unelected representative, but the principal decision-maker in Georgian Politics and a Russian protagonist running the country for his and his Russian master’s benefit. Unfortunately Georgian public can kiss goodbye to EU membership and NATO until they can get rid of this cancer. Frontera caught right bang in the middle. Has this become a personal crusade for Zaza, to save his people? This is going to have a messy ending unless there is high level mediation.
As far as the relation between FRR and FRUS is concerned, that is unclear at the moment, but if there was ill-intention from Zaza et al, he could have come up with another company name that didn’t have ‘Frontera Resources’ in it. Doh. So I remain hopeful that this entity will be brought in to the FRR Group, if we come out of this apocalypse situation. Good luck all.
72p per share, that'll do nicely sir.
Interesting find Oopsi, thanks, could this mean there is life in the old dog yet?
Heck, Georgia dream has infiltrated the board!
So quote 'Countries do not matter....' , amazingly laughable comments this guy makes, anyway looks like they are getting a tad worried about the US.
I'm having no probs, try research.ii.co.uk/ discussion/ tags/ lse:frr , without the spaces!
Thanks madp, think it is true to say that frontera played no small part in this transformational news.
Great find Ivy, the 'interesting bit' could have been written for frontera. At least the arbitrators are worldly wise to these maneouvers.
Arbitration hearings completed in December 2019, with final submissions due by the end of February. So, how long does it take to reach a decision? Depends on the complications of the case, but I guess in our situation, the case would have been relatively straight forward…? Probably not. So if are being optimistic, can we say a decision by the end of April? May be.
Anyway, the negative press caused by taking a US company to court is hardly a glowing advertisement for “friendly place to do business”.
I think Zaza and team underestimated the Georgians stubbornness [remember that comment from Zaza, ‘use a sledgehammer to crack a nut’ - he thought it was going to be pretty small issue to deal with, Hope being the more difficult]? I think Zaza+SN felt that with the US political support, Ivanishivili would relent and come to a suitable agreement. But for Ivanishivili, he had to pursue this to conclusion because Putin is hiding in a dark corner pointing a gun at him.
Whatever the case, we could do with a sign or a small comment from FRR [maybe a little update on the company’s website]. On the other side, situation on the ground in Georgia and the US, may still be delicate so they may have to refrain until there is some news from the tribunal.
Is there still a small window of opportunity that the two parties come to an agreement before the arbitration decision? Well, that may ultimately depend on Putin. LoL