Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Scoping study showing > $1.5b revenues was done January 2021.
Lithium price up 91% in 2021 alone and continuing to rise.
Lol. You’re the one who made the GGP comparison. There’s loads more examples of massive increases prior to production though aren’t there. How about EUA. Up 10,000% Aug 2019 to Dec 20. No production yet.
IRR have a free carry for 50% of their >$1.5billion industry standout lithium project, plus all the highly prospective gold projects. It’s massively undervalued at current levels and will rise significantly pre-production from here.
Good luck elsewhere though.
GGP went up 1000%+ between Jan 20 and Jan 21. No production yet. IRR can do the same. It’s grossly undervalued at current levels. Don’t think you’ll see another dip below current levels I’m afraid.
I completely agree. Guild is grossly undervalued at current levels. On a peer-to-peer comparison, the average revenue to market cap multiple for the sector is around 12-15, which will undoubtably rise further following the TSM FTX deal on Friday. Guild market cap is currently £40m. With current cash levels, that would equate to annual revenues of only £2m. But we already know that revenues will be a lot higher than that with 3 x multimillion pound sponsorship deals already signed, plus revenues from academy and merchandise. Forecast Yr1 revenues are £7m, which could turn out to be very conservative, but even with this, the expected market cap for that revenue in this sector would be £100m (20p share price). And that’s not even taking into account the impressive rates of growth, both for Guild and the whole esports sector. 8p resistance will crack at some point, and when it does, I agree that we could see a very significant rise from here.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/04/sports/esports-name-change-tsm-ftx.html
The deal was first announced in the New York Times and is so big it dwarfs a lot of naming rights deals for mainstream sports teams. It shows how the shift is moving towards Esports in a big way. The sector is massively undervalued and news like this will bring attention to all Esports companies, especially the highest performing ones like Guild.
https://www.dexerto.com/business/tsm-ftx-partnership-210m-1588481/
I think this $210m naming rights deal that was announced late Friday for TSM FTX will have something to do with it.
The Guild Fortnite team absolutely smashed it this weekend. 5/5 players qualifying for the Grand Final with ease, further cementing their place as the number 1 ranked Fortnite team.
On-field performances, social media followings, sponsorship deals, merchandise sales, academy members, they all feed off each other.
Guild progress looks to be snowballing.
Sponsorship deals announced so far since IPO in October 2020:
- European Fintech company (19th Oct 20 RNS). £3.6m over 3 years. Company doesn’t want to be named yet, but Guild exec chairman Carlton Curtis said in an interview that they’re planning to do a big stadium launch when pandemic allows.
- HyperX (28th Jan 21 RNS). Terms confidential at present.
- Subway (25th March 21 RNS). 2-year multimillion pound deal covering EMEA region only. Exact terms confidential, but Exec chair described the terms in an interview as, “astronomically high” and, “a game-changer for Esports”.
I agree with the previous poster that with all the merchandise expansion, the next natural type of sponsor would be a big sports clothing / fashion brand.
At the moment, subway and HyperX have their name and brand advertised on the social media front pages of all the Guild players (13m+ following) as well as on-screen for all their esports streams on Twitch. That is huge exposure for them, and all to the elusive GenZ audience.
And as the popularity of the Guild brand continues to grow exponentially, the terms of any sponsorship deals will also increase significantly.
When you put this together with the separate revenue streams of the Academy and merchandise lines, it’s not hard to see how grossly undervalued Guild is at current levels.
I’m very glad to be in this one. I think it’s going to be quite a journey.
For what it’s worth, I think the 5% could turn out to be a massive underestimate as well. When the time comes to stimulate academy membership, all they will have to do is get their Guild pro players to do some live streaming events through the academy as tutorials, then they will see a massive influx from their 13m+ followers into the academy system. They will need to make sure they’re ready for that sort of influx first though, so if they’ve got any sense, they’ll start slow with the academy and let a small initial membership base build up over the coming weeks to make sure the system works, that way they can ensure scalability before stimulating the growth.
Academy potential looks impressive to me.
£4.99/month subscription plus potential player transfer fees in the future plus added exposure for sponsors.
The questions are uptake and scalability.
Uptake. We will see over the coming months and years when they release figures, but until then it’s guess work. Guild have signed a lot of content creators recently and also have a lot of professional players with big followings, especially in Fortnite. Combined social media following at present is now over 13m and growing all the time. And almost all of them will be avid gamers. If only 5% of these followers signed up to the academy, then that would be 650k subscribers, which would be £40m revenue per year. The potential is certainly there for big uptake and revenues, but we will have to await official updates for true figures. I would expect some comments on this at H1 results time at the latest, but hopefully before.
Scalability. When I was discussing this with a friend and fellow investor, he questioned the ability to service 100s of thousands (or potentially tens of millions) of subscribers. He said, “It’s not like Netflix, you have to actually train these subscribers”. I told him I think he’s missing the point and that it is just like Netflix, but for gaming and with additional revenue streams. Guild have an army of esports players and content creators. They post videos with commentary of their gaming as tutorials. This will build up a library of content for the basic £4.99/m academy subscribers / players. Guild then also put on regular tournaments for these academy players to put their skills to work. Only the later rounds of the tournaments get critiqued by the Guild pro players, again produced as tutorials. This then provides a never ending stream of content for the ever growing library. Guild do not have to individually coach every subscriber for this setup, but all those in the academy still get enough content and tournament opportunities to justify the £4.99/m. With this sort of structure, you can encourage and accommodate as many £4.99/m basic subscribers as you like, in a similar model to Netflix subscribers. Then, if individual subscribers want some more detailed coaching, even one-on-one sessions with a Guild pro gamer (who they follow and idolise on social media and streaming services), there are different levels of subscription (at higher costs) for that.
It remains to be seen how successful the Guild academy will become, but for me, the opportunity looks enormous, and it beggars belief that the share price has fallen since its announcement.
For balance though, my friend said he was going to buy a few shares on the off chance I’m right, but for the most part looked at me like I’m some sort of lunatic! I told him I’ll buy him a Guild hoodie for Christmas when he’s an avid fan and his kids are in the Academy...
Impressive update, especially the growth in followers, which will undoubtably boost merchandise revenues:
The new Core Collection comes six months after the debut line was introduced. Since then, the Guild brand's worldwide recognition has grown strongly, in part driven by victories in major Fortnite and Rocket League tournaments as well as a surge in Guild's owned audience of followers on social media from approximately 10,000 to 450,000, including a network audience of over 13 million across Guild's pro players and content creators.
Carleton Curtis, executive chairman, said: "We are delighted to launch our second apparel line at a time when the Guild brand is gaining increasing recognition and followers worldwide. We expect our growing popularity to boost demand for merchandising and thereby make a valuable contribution to our revenues and growth over the long term."
This is the sort of broadcasting deal that I think will soon become much more widespread in Esports. Broadcasting rights are lagging behind in the sector in general, but there are signs now that it is starting to be monetised in a similar way to broadcasting deals for major sports, e.g. premier league football. Excellent news for the likes of Guild.
https://esportsinsider.com/2021/04/huya-league-of-legends-china-rights/
Interesting to hear your past experience of soros fund UpNUp. This definitely has the feel of someone drip selling their holding in the background. If it is soros, then they’re hopefully nearly done, and then it should be onwards and upwards.
Nice to see interest picking up anyway this week and plenty of big buys coming through. Highest trading day ever yesterday on no news, including nice 1.47m over ask buy printed after hours. A few more days like that and whoever is selling should be flushed out. Looking forward to seeing what happens to trading volumes then when we do get some official news. Lots of hints on Twitter from company and CEO that news flow this month should be good, so hopefully not much longer before next update, but we’ll have to wait and see.
In other news, Guild Fortnite team now top of the EU rankings!
https://twitter.com/fcrrankings/status/1390354541804130306?s=21
GLA.
Social media followers for the official Guild accounts doubling in the last 2 months is very impressive, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg IMO. The Guild players themselves have millions and millions of combined followers and are also growing all the time. They all look to be proud to represent Guild, wearing the merchandise and displaying the Guild name and sponsors on their social media pages.
Example here from yesterday, a Guild Fortnite player recommending the Guild merchandise to his 127k followers on Twitter...
https://twitter.com/anasfnbr/status/1389627656728100867?s=21
They’re building something very special here IMO.
CEO sounds excited about this month.
Tweet from him at the weekend:
Woke up very excited! May is going to be a big month for Guild!! ?? #GILD
https://twitter.com/kalhourd/status/1388504596344033280?s=21
Guild esports (LSE: GILD)
Sector: Esports / online gaming. Strong growth. Target sector.
IPO price: 8p (Oct 20)
Current share price: 6p
Market cap £30m
Cash £18m (28 Jan 21)
No debt
Revenues:
Sponsorship - 3 x multimillion pound, multi year sponsorship deals signed since IPO.
Merchandise - steady plus new launch May 2021.
Expected future revenue streams:
Sponsorship and merchandise to grow.
In-stream ads (under-utilised in whole sector).
Image / streaming rights (again under-utilised in sector, but expected to become more mainstream as esports expands. BBC / sky sports already shown some esports tournaments live. Viewing figures good. Expected strong growth).
Academy. If successful then player transfers (for fee) possible in future. Plus academy subscription fees.
Risks:
Costs associated with rapid growth plans. Need to secure enough revenues to support growth. Good cash pile at present as cushion, but needs to be used wisely and in-line with revenue growth. Keep eye. Early signs good with impressive sponsorship deals so far. Review H1.
Other:
Beckham as ambassador major plus. Good for brand awareness and growth. Might attract some external criticism for terms, but proving worth already with sponsorship deals / merchandising so far.
High ranking players / teams in chosen esports: Fortnite (number 1 rank), Valorant, Rocket league and Fifa 21. Recent high profile tournament wins.
Possible announcements / share price catalysts:
US OTC dual listing - grossly undervalued compared to US peers. Should get good uptake from US investors when more readily available to trade over there.
Further sponsorship deals (hinted at in interviews and announcements).
H1 update (H1 ended March 21).
As yet unnamed fin tech sponsor launch (expected major stadium launch when pandemic allows (exec chair / CC interview)).
Also, grossly undervalued on fundamentals at present, especially compared to peers, so could see steady share price rise just based on that, especially if peers continue to rise in value.
Esports sector continuing to grow - should benefit all involved in sector, including Guild.
BOD / company / SP performance so far:
Impressive performances on the pitch from large group of players in range of esports. Well coached. Players and coaches seem to enjoy setup. Lots of other gamers expressing desire to play for Guild. Likeable brand. All players representing Guild display company and sponsor names on social media platforms. Well organised.
Very large combined social media presence. Good viewing figures for on-line streams. Huge benefit to sponsors and future ad revs.
Steady stream of large sponsorship deals so far, including HyperX and Subway.
Company looks to be on good trajectory in an exciting sector.
SP seems to be severely lagging behind development and potential. ? Legacy seller. ? Opportunity.
Very undervalued at current levels.
Overall impression: Conviction buy
Capital risk: Low
LT-trade ratio: 90:10