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Roche on the M&A trail. 7 billion for Telavant ‘promising’ inflammatory bowel disease therapy requiring phase 3 completion.
As Buffett said The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient
Just be PATIENT!!! ……. We are now close, very close
Apologies rookie error. Don’t normally take much notice. How about Stifel & Peel Hunt being paid for brokers? My fair value for what it’s worth (nothing) is 250p equally waiting on full 1a data release
Trinity Delta current fair value at 641 million that’s 228p. Moving in the right direction while we wait for 1a full data release and hopefully subsequent licensing or partnerships.
Interesting to see how our house brokers feel the last few weeks have moved the dial forward. 10% chance of success?…………I think not.
Anyone who believes this share is at the correct value has to believe Alastair is lying or incompetent. Maybe fair enough but you have to add Eliot Forster onto that list and while you’re at it Dr Tap, Professor Twelves, professor Udai Banerji, Professor Krishnan Komanduri, Shaun Clinton, Dr Christina Coughlin, Professor James Spicer, and Dr Stephane Champiat.
Personally I believe Alastair doubt what they are telling you on the rns regulatory process and for just a little patience you risk missing out on one of the greatest investor returns in Aim history. All just my opinion of course
For me that was the most amazing fact to come out at the Science Day. Dr Krishna Komanduri in the panel discussion at the end said words to the effect if the preCISION delivery system can disrupt the Stroma without major side effects it could / would be used as first line in numerous therapeutic treatments new and old. Also buying consultants time to tailor make the individual treatments. This technology, should it work, has a value off the scale. Truly incalculable. No wonder the market finds it unbelievable. So do I at times but the evidence mounts and for the record I’ll say again in April 2022 in a discussion with Alastair, Fiona & Neil at White City just after the move Neil stated ‘We know what we’ve got we don’t need anyone else to tell us’ in answer to the question why didn’t they take on partners to mitigate risk. A further 18 months of trial data later Avacta’s top scientists remain extremely confident. Patience DE6 data soon , hopefully very soon.
A timely reminder that at the Avacta science day professor Twelves termed the reaction of AVA6000 in the body compared to standard Dox as like the difference between chalk and cheese. At the AGM it was stated the reaction was like the difference between night and day. As the end of DE6 approaches part of me wants it to be the conclusion of 1a. The patient part of me
wants to see DE7. After 13 years what’s another 3 months
An ongoing strong relationship with our clinical trial lead investigator at the Royal Marsden Prof Udai Banerji can only be another positive sign all is going very well. A mutual respect that allows the prof to be termed a ‘Collaborator’ After two years of data a significant independent endorsement
Hi Sage agree and disagree. Agree on DE7 unless there is a significant data release but finally finding MTD Will I believe start the ball rolling. 1a full data release and independent analysis, pr push and hopefully the trigger for preCISION licenses. Unfortunately that might not be till end of year or beyond. We are very overdue a surprise game changer rns. Here’s Hoping
Not quite sure it’s a ‘fantastic’ rns but it is a good one. Pheeew! So if we take H2 revenues and at 10% for H1 next year then 10% again for H2 that gives us revenue, hopefully conservative, of give or take 3.2+ 3.6 . So next year at 6.8 million gets us pretty close to cash flow positive and hopefully nailed on break even for 2025.
Just for the record I was extremely impressed (again) by Avacta’s senior management team at the AGM. I asked Alastair since we were entering the commercialisation phase surely the commercial team needed building. He replied that a high level senior business manager appointment had already been made. I don’t think it was ‘material’ so no rns unless they haven’t even started yet.
The momentum is building!!………Hopefully
This was stated in conversations at the AGM DE6 first patient has already been dosed. Fact. This was in answer to my question as to whether DE6 commencement would be rns’d. They said it wouldn’t be as the others hadn’t been. I’m not sure if that’s strictly true as I think a couple have. So 8 weeks if everything goes smoothly…….does it ever?
Alastair said QE6 could be last escalation as signs were beginning to appear. However his gut feel was 7……….
I genuinely think there is a chance. I have been pushing Alastair for his vision where is he hoping to take the company. I asked the question again at the AGM so I think his answer is ‘on camera’ A UK listed multi billion pound pharma. So that’s the Aim on Aim, will he be successful , God knows only time will tell. What I am sure about is that after 13 years of ‘patience’ I’m going to find out soon enough. preCISION exceeding all expectations so Game On.
As I’ve posted before Avacta a year ago said ‘we know what we’ve got’
Two years into trial we know what they’ve got, there is no doubt.
pre/CISION platform works we have proof of concept
We know AVA6000 has efficacy as how many times have we got to be told Dox acts like Dox and at therapeutic levels kills cancer cells.
So being well researched Avacta shareholders we KNOW the above whereas outsiders don’t. The confidence of the Avacta team at the AGM only emphasised and confirmed what we already know.
I genuinely don’t understand yes we might have to wait 6 months, maybe 12 maybe even 18 but the rewards even if management mess this up will be minimum 500% return and if they maximise…………we just might have AIM GOAT.
I’ve got more Avacta shares than I know what to do with but I’m really tempted to buy more on principle! They’ll give us back minimum give or take 5 times our money and some seem to be arguing about whether it’s 6 months 12 months or 18.
Hi LDA I don’t quite agree with timeline fairly confident it will be quicker. DE6 has started so if all went well that’s two months let’s give it three. MTD has started to come into sight so that could be final cohort. Alastair’s gut feel was DE7 would probably be needed so that’s another 2-3. Call it 5 months all together. Two months to analyse and set up 1b start. 12 months for 1b but general view yesterday seemed to be 6 months in and they would have enough data to confirm efficacy.
So 13 months BUT I spoke to Dr Tap at the SD patient experience / patient outcomes was the total focus Prodox to Dox in the body acts like ‘chalk & cheese’ ‘black and white’ ‘clinician in DE5 couldn’t tell patient had been dosed’ plus what has now been repeated continuously Dox acts like Dox. Add (which I didn’t personally hear) that 5 STS patients had already been dosed in cohort 5 and I think efficacy confirmation is going to be ‘leaking’ very quickly probably even before 1b. Either way I believe we are looking at maximum 12 months. I guess only time will tell.
I think it’s almost certain there will be an rns Wednesday morning, at the AGM ceo Alastair Smith will say blah blah blah. The question is will there be anything of great interest. It’s difficult to imagine an AGM meeting at that length with top management attending not revealing anything new or at the very least existing information in greater depth and explanation. Roll on Wednesday.
I was fortunate in about April last year to be shown around White City by Alastair, Fiona and Neil. I was pushing the question why not mitigate risk and find a partner for AVA6000? Neil replied ‘We know what we’ve got we don’t need anyone else to tell us’ ‘Why should we give it away’ Looks like he was right
Beat me to it!
Also with the DE5 no news is simply good news everything is proceeding as planned. No doubt we would all like the conclusion of DE5 yesterday but that’s not how it works. Hopefully before AGM.